AN EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO INFORMATION USED BY DECISION MAKERS*

This paper discusses the relationship between uncertainty in a decision making environment and the desired characteristics of information used for decision making. The work is aimed at providing a better understanding of the variables that affect the design of Management Information Systems. An experiment was conducted using an inventory simulator. The subjects could decide on inventory control variables and the amount and type of information to be used in monitoring system performance. The demand for inventory was an external random variable under the control of the experimenter. The experiment investigated how different demand variances affected the decision information used, the decisions made, and the resulting decision effectiveness (cost.) It was found that decision review frequency was not affected by demand variability. However, age and degree of summary of information used were greatly affected. Subjects exposed to high variability used data with a shorter history and a higher level of detail than those exposed to low variability. It was also found that the number of reports used increased from the low to middle variance group, then decreased at very high variance. Subjects tended to “give-up” on their information system at high variance, and they relied on additional safety stock to prevent frequent stockouts. Finally, the correlation between the information used and decision effectiveness as measured by cost was low. This result was contrary to the subjects' beliefs that more and better information produced “better” decisions. It indicates that although variability may strongly affect preferences for different types of information, the information used may not in turn affect decision performance.     

The construction and validation of the homopositivity scale: an instrument measuring endorsement of positive stereotypes about gay men

Social scientists appear to focus on negative beliefs about, and attitudes toward, gay men and lesbian women. This emphasis, though understandable in view of the widespread oppression of gay and lesbian individuals, is somewhat myopic because it ignores what might be referred to as the positive dimension of stereotypes. Although such a concept may appear oxymoronic, it is widely recognized that individuals may endorse a mixture of positive and negative stereotypes toward stigmatized groups such as African Americans and women. The purpose of the current series of studies (Study 1, N = 212; Study 2, N = 105) was to devise an instrument measuring endorsement of positive stereotypes about gay men (Homopositivity Scale; HPS). Two versions of the HPS (of varying length) were evaluated, with scale scores on both appearing to be internally consistent and factorially distinct from scales measuring negative stereotypes and prejudices about gay men. These studies also suggest that females are more likely than males to endorse positive stereotypes about gay men, and that such endorsement is negatively associated with need for uniqueness and need for cognition, and positively associated with media contact and benevolent sexism. The limitations of the two studies are outlined and the importance of assessing positive stereotypes about gay men in conjunction with oft-examined homonegativity is discussed.     

Understanding changes in Māori incomes and income inequality 1997–2003

This paper examines recent changes in weekly income levels and dispersion for Māori, New Zealand’s indigenous ethnic group. Changes in the Māori income distribution between 1997 and 2003 reflect rapid increases in economic growth and employment rate. A reduced proportion of people had zero or benefit-level incomes and a higher proportion had high incomes. Income inequality declined for working-aged Māori and was stable for employed Māori. The average income gap between Māori and Europeans declined. The increased Māori employment rate during this period was the single most important driver of changes in the Māori income distribution.

Suicide and mental health problems among Swedish youth in the wake of the 1990s recession

The purpose of this explorative study is to bring together a variety of Swedish data sources with indicators of youth mental health and living conditions in order to illuminate trends during the last decades, elucidate possible determinants of mental ill health and develop hypotheses to explain the observed trend patterns. The analyses in the study reveal some surprising inconsistencies with respect to the mental health trends among young people during the 1990s. Most striking is the pattern of increasing youth unemployment coinciding with almost inverse trends in the rates of suicide. The secular trends in fatal suicides during this period do not show any increase but some actual decrease in sub‐populations despite high sustained levels of unemployment. In contrast, survey data indicate that the general mental health of youth during this period appears to have deteriorated.     

The Quality of Urban Environments in the Brazilian Amazon

In the Brazilian Amazon during the 1980s,urban population growth outstripped rural growth, andby 1991, most of the region's population resided inurban areas. Much of this urban growth involvedestablishment of unplanned housing with inadequateinfrastructure, which resulted in rising pollution. This paper compares indicators of environmentalquality in urban populations of the Amazon in 1980 and1991, and among different kinds of urban populationsin 1991. The results show that environmental qualityin the region deteriorated during the 1980s as theproduction of and exposure to environmental hazardsrose while resources to ward off hazards eroded. Thefindings also show that environmental quality wasparticularly poor in more rapidly growing urbancenters. The urban Amazon may not afford an adequatestandard of living and this may generate out-migrationfrom the region.     

Social Sources of Failure in Education: The Case in East and Southeast Turkey

The efficiency of education in East and Southeast Turkey (E&SE) has long been a subject of debate. Both regions are similar to each other and different from the other regions in terms of economy, culture, ethnic origin, and languages spoken. Sahin (1997) studied the efficiency of education in the E&SE and proposed that illiteracy is significantly the highest in both regions, the female student population is significantly lower, and students are significantly less successful in nationwide general proficiency examinations (OSS and OYS) compared to all the other regions. Social sources of failure were studied in terms of the distinguishing characteristics of both regions, from both practical and theoretical standpoints. The findings indicated inequality of educational opportunity rooted in geographical, economical, social (cultural, linguistic), and political factors.     

Technocratic Social Work at Home and Abroad: Australia and Iran

Technocratic social work conceived as the neutral application of professional skills has an inbuilt capacity for failing to recognize its social and political effects. Two recent books on social work exemplify this in countries as apparently diverse as Australia and Iran.     

Birth outcome, not pregnancy process: Reply to van der Veen

In a recent article (Frisbie. Forbes. and Pullum 1996) we documented racial/ethnic differences in birth outcomes according to a more fine-grained classification than has typically been employed in the demographic literature. In his commentary, van der Veen focuses on the measurement of one of the dimensions of that classification, maturity of the infant. as proxied by the fetal growth ratio. The crux of the critique is easily seen in van der Veen's statement that “all of my disagreements with Frisbie et al. 's method arise from their particular use of a postnatal standard for the assessment of intrauterine growth.” Our critic misunderstands our objective: He fails to realize our interest in birth outcome, not pregnancy process, and does not perceive that our intent was to extend the research extant in both the demographic and public-health literatures in which patently postnatal (i.e., ex utero) measures are taken as outcomes interesting in their own right and/or as risk factors for infant mortality and infant and childhood morbidity. Specifically, he does recognize that we purposefully expanded our focus to include moderately compromised births to determine if they were at higher risk than the normal births with whom they are conventionally categorized. Our discussion draws on research cited in the original article, on studies cited by our critic, and on a few more recent investigations. Although we have never argued that ours is the only, or even the best, approach in all cases, we try to clarify the rationale for, and adduce additional empirical evidence of, the utility of the method we used.