Model‐based Prediction In Ecological Surveys Including Those with Incomplete Detection

This paper explores and develops model‐based predictors for surveys of plants and wildlife including those with incomplete detection. The methodology allows for estimating a detection function to account for objects which were not detected at the time of the survey. The model‐based theory utilises generalized linear models (GLMs) and is either new or adapted from other areas of sampling. A simulation study is used to validate the estimators and comparisons are made with an integrated likelihood approach. An aerial survey of kangaroos in western New South Wales is used to illustrate the theory. The area within 50m of the aircraft is treated as a strip transect and mark‐recapture methods are used to estimate the detection function.     

Gender dysphoric/gender variant (GD/GV) children and adolescents: summarizing what we know and what we have yet to learn

The optimal approach to treating minors with gender dysphoria/gender variance (GD/GV) is much more controversial than treating these phenomena in adults. This is because children have limited capacity to participate in decision making regarding their own treatment, and even adolescents have no legal ability to provide informed consent. Minors must, therefore, depend on parents or other caregivers to make treatment decisions on their behalf, including those that will influence the course of their lives in the long term. Presently, the highest level of evidence available for selecting among the various approaches to treatment is best characterized as "expert opinion." Yet, opinions vary widely among experts and are influenced by theoretical orientation and assumptions and beliefs regarding the origins of gender identity, as well as its perceived malleability at particular stages of development. This article outlines some of the more salient points raised by the clinicians who treat GD/GV and their discussants. This article summarizes what the editors believe is known and what has yet to be learned about minors with GD/GV, their families, their treatment, and their surrounding cultures.     

Asymptotics for Statistical Treatment Rules

This paper develops asymptotic optimality theory for statistical treatment rules in smooth parametric and semiparametric models. Manski (2000, 2002, 2004) and Dehejia (2005) have argued that the problem of choosing treatments to maximize social welfare is distinct from the point estimation and hypothesis testing problems usually considered in the treatment effects literature, and advocate formal analysis of decision procedures that map empirical data into treatment choices. We develop large‐sample approximations to statistical treatment assignment problems using the limits of experiments framework. We then consider some different loss functions and derive treatment assignment rules that are asymptotically optimal under average and minmax risk criteria.     

Excluded losses and the demand for insurance

The demand for insurance is examined when the insured asset can incur losses that are excluded from insurance coverage. These losses are negatively correlated with covered losses and hence cannot be treated as background risk. Excluded losses have strikingly different effects on the demand for insurance than does background risk and lead to a modification of many standard insurance demand results. A number of new theorems concerning the effects of excluded losses are also presented. Risk-averse and prudent decision makers reduce their demand for insurance when excluded losses increase in size or riskiness. Excluded losses are a possible explanation for why many decision makers fail to take up insurance when it is offered.     

Surprise,surprise: the New Zealand general election of 2017

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the 2017 general election in New Zealand and draws out some of its implications. The final outcome was a surprise, and its implications momentous. Events strengthened Labour under a new leader and weakened the Green and New Zealand First parties, making it possible for Labour to become a viable coalition formateur. Comparing campaign public polling results, at least some of the polls were ‘wrong’, but all added to the excitement and uncertainty. Coupled with a new Labour Party leader, that uncertainty and excitement had mobilising effects that affected the young, but not the old. Finally, this article analyses the changes to the party system, nation-wide, and in the Māori electorates, assessing the degree of two-party dominance, and draws out implications for debates about the threshold for representation.     

The role of the state in structural transition and economic crisis

As academicians, we emphasize to our students to keep up with class, and always read ahead. When I took over as President-elect of the WSSA in April of 2008, while busy communicating with the Section Coordinators and plan the 2009 Annual Conference (Reno, Nevada), I would occasionally pause and ponder what I would present for my President Address (reading ahead). What do I know that would be of interest to the general membership of the WSSA? I naturally thought of China and its economic reform, as half of my research output over the last decade has been in this area. Then, the subprime crisis came to be, and I wondered about how the economy would cope. I can claim some expertise to the former, but of no special authority regarding the latter. However, I do have some thoughts regarding the role of the State during such economic upheavals, but in a more conceptual manner than a policy solution.     

Normalized measures of concavity and Ross’s strongly more risk averse order

The Arrow-Pratt (A-P) definitions of absolute and relative risk aversion dominate the discussion of risk aversion and defining “more risk averse”. Ross (Econometrica 49:621–663, 1981) notes, however, that being A-P more risk averse is not sufficient for addressing many important comparative static questions. Consequently he introduces “a new and stronger measure for comparing two agents’ attitudes towards risk…”. Ross does not provide a corresponding measure of risk aversion. This paper uses a normalized measure of concavity to characterize the Ross definition of strongly more risk averse on bounded intervals. Other properties and uses of these normalized measures of concavity are also presented.