An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre–World War I and Interwar Periods

We test whether monetary shocks had asymmetric output effects before World War II. Ball and Mankiw (1994) show that expectations of persistent inflation under fiat money can explain why negative monetary shocks had larger effects than positive shocks after World War II. Consistent with this explanation, we find such asymmetry in the interwar period following the abandonment of the gold standard and before it, when agents arguably anticipated this development. We find no monetary asymmetry before World War I, which is consistent with Ball and Mankiw (1994), because under a credible gold standard, agents do not expect persistent inflation.     

DEXPERT: an expert system for the design of experiments

DEXPERT is an expert system, built using KEE, for the design and analysis of experiments. From a mathematical model, expected mean squares are computed, tests are determined, and the power of the tests computed. Comparisons between designs are aided by suggestions and verbal interpretations provided by DEXPERT. DEXPERT provides a layout sheet for the collection of the data and then analyzes and interprets the results using analytical and graphical methods.     

Modeling Benzene Pharmacokinetics Across Three Sets of Animal Data: Parametric Sensitivity and Risk Implications

Typically, the uncertainty affecting the parameters of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models is ignored because it is not currently practical to adjust their values using classical parameter estimation techniques. This issue of parametric variability in a physiological model of benzene pharmacokinetics is addressed in this paper. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effects on the model output arising from variability in its parameters. The output was classified into two categories, depending on whether the output of the model on a particular run was judged to be generally consistent with published experimental data. Statistical techniques were used to examine sensitivity and interaction in the parameter space. The model was evaluated against the data from three different experiments in order to test for the structural adequacy of the model and the consistency of the experimental results. The regions of the parameter space associated with various inhalation and gavage experiments are distinct, and the model as presently structured cannot adequately represent the outcomes of all experiments. Our results suggest that further effort is required to discern between the structural adequacy of the model and the consistency of the experimental results. The impact of our results on the risk assessment process for benzene is also examined.     

Professional networks,science ability,and gender determinants of three types of leadership in academic science and engineering

This paper examines the factors associated with holding leadership positions among men and women academic scientists. We develop hypotheses for three determinants of leadership: professional networks, science ability, and gender. We test the resulting model on the likelihood of holding three different types of academic science leadership—research center leadership, university administrative leadership, and discipline leadership. Findings show that while science productivity and reputation are strongly associated with having either a center or discipline leadership position, they are less strongly associated with administrative leadership. Also, larger and more dense collaboration networks predict having a center leadership position, but the opposite is true for holding an administrative leadership position. Women are more likely to be in discipline leadership positions and less likely to be a leader of a research center or have an administrative university leadership position. Finally, having more women in the network reduces the likelihood of holding discipline or center leadership positions. Interpretations of findings and conclusions explore the potential implications for theory, practice and policy.     

Transportation Difficulty of Black and White Rural Older Adults

The purpose of this study was to understand self-reported transportation difficulty among rural older adults. We used data from the UAB Study of Aging (255 Black and 259 White), community-dwelling participants residing in rural areas. We examined the relationship of predisposing characteristics, enabling resources, and measures of need for care with self-reports of transportation difficulty. Blacks reported having more transportation difficulty than Whites (24.7% vs. 11.6%; p ≤ .05). When we introduced other variables, race differences disappeared, but there was a race by income interaction with transportation difficulty. Whites with lower incomes were more likely to have transportation difficulty than Whites with higher incomes. When data from Blacks and Whites were analyzed separately, income was the only variable associated with transportation difficulty among Whites. Among Blacks, income was not related to transportation difficulty but several variables other than income (age, gender, marital status, MMSE scores and depression) were.     

RELATIONAL V-CODE CONDITIONS IN A CHILD AND ADOLESCENT POPULATION DO WARRANT TREATMENT

It is often argued that relational V-code conditions are less serious than classical psychiatric disorders, and that they should therefore receive lower clinical priority or diminished levels of treatment funding. Despite these common assertions, there have been virtually no studies that have used actual case data to evaluate whether such problems are in fact less serious and less worthy of treatment funding. We used actual case data from a universally funded child and family clinic to evaluate these questions. Results showed that both classical diagnoses and relational problems were significantly related to markers of clinical severity. As with previous research, family therapy was not differentially associated with a larger number of treatment sessions.     

Cue-Reactive Rationality,Visual Imagery and Volitional Control Predict Cue-Reactive Urge to Gamble in Poker-Machine Gamblers

Poker-machine gamblers have been demonstrated to report increases in the urge to gamble following exposure to salient gambling cues. However, the processes which contribute to this urge to gamble remain to be understood. The present study aimed to investigate whether changes in the conscious experience of visual imagery, rationality and volitional control (over one’s thoughts, images and attention) predicted changes in the urge to gamble following exposure to a gambling cue. Thirty-one regular poker-machine gamblers who reported at least low levels of problem gambling on the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), were recruited to complete an online cue-reactivity experiment. Participants completed the PGSI, the visual imagery, rationality and volitional control subscales of the Phenomenology of Consciousness Inventory (PCI), and a visual analogue scale (VAS) assessing urge to gamble. Participants completed the PCI subscales and VAS at baseline, following a neutral video cue and following a gambling video cue. Urge to gamble was found to significantly increase from neutral cue to gambling cue (while controlling for baseline urge) and this increase was predicted by PGSI score. After accounting for the effects of problem-gambling severity, cue-reactive visual imagery, rationality and volitional control significantly improved the prediction of cue-reactive urge to gamble. The small sample size and limited participant characteristic data restricts the generalizability of the findings. Nevertheless, this is the first study to demonstrate that changes in the subjective experience of visual imagery, volitional control and rationality predict changes in the urge to gamble from neutral to gambling cue. The results suggest that visual imagery, rationality and volitional control may play an important role in the experience of the urge to gamble in poker-machine gamblers.     

Elvira Lyons — A tribute

When I say “you” and “we” I mean both welfare officers and social workers. We should think of a term which covers both groups for we are all in the business of helping people with social problems.