基于复杂网络的电动汽车充电桩众筹市场信用风险建模与分析

因其经济优势及环境友好特性,电动汽车（EV）保有量持续攀升。而当前中国充电设施建设明显滞后于电动汽车的扩张速度,成为制约电动车发展潜力的主要瓶颈。由于充电设施具有高正外部性,同时投资回收期较长,难以吸引到传统融资,而基于互联网的众筹作为新型融资方式则受到了广泛关注。但由于缺乏强制性的信息披露制度及相关法律法规,众筹融资过程中的信息不对称问题相较传统融资方式更为严重,由此导致的高违约率也进一步削弱了投资者信心。本文利用复杂网络对电动汽车充电桩众筹融资市场进行建模,刻画了众筹投资者决策过程中的羊群效应,基于信息不对称使用多Agent模型对信用风险的产生、影响及针对性政策效果进行了模拟分析。结果表明,众筹投资者在决策过程中易受到社交网络中负面信息的影响,使得筹资人违约行为的不利影响进一步扩散。而严格的罚款机制可以在不影响融资市场均衡的情况下,使违约行为的恶性循环得到遏制。     

康定锅庄文化遗产价值新阐释

The understanding of the traditional research of Kangding Guozhuo mainly covers four aspects:1 ) It is widely believed in the academic world that the Guozhuang ( meaning singing and dancing in a circle ) of Kangding was a unique product which combined politics, economics and culture together. 2) It was a specific business form based on the family unit, fulfilling multiple func￣tions such as an inn, a shed, a commodity inter￣mediary, an administrative office, a commodity transformation point, and a banking establishment. And it was also a place for cultural exchange be￣tween the Tibetans and the Han . 3 ) The formation of Guozhuang culture establishes a new element in the culture of the Tibetan-Yi corridor. 4 ) Zheng Shaoxiong mentions that the Guozhuangzhu ( the Guozhuang host ) had played an intermediary role in assisting the Tibetan businessmen to sell or pur￣chase goods - this helped to maintain the trade relations between the Han and Tibetans ( or their communication) . This kind of ingenious institu￣tional arrangement was a historical practice in keeping the balance of the relationship between different cultural communities, such as the Qing court, Tusi ( native officials ) and the Guozhuang host of Kangding. It reflects the wisdom in ethnic interactions, and can be borrowed in present ethnic regional autonomous system.
The above mentioned understanding is a result of study from the perspective of history, ethnology or economics. Although Zheng Shaoxiong’s re￣search was born from the old mindset, and pro￣posed the new value of Guozhuang cultural mecha￣nism, there is still a lack of research on this cul￣ture from such comprehensive perspectives as ur￣ban history, cultural anthropology, and economic anthropology. Thus it cannot fully reveal the fea￣ture and value of Kangding Guozhuang, a complex cultural phenomenon.
Based on existing data, past research, and fieldwork on the oral history of Kangding Guozhuang conducted in August 2013 , this article gives some new interpretations to the features of Guozhuang culture from an interdisciplinary per￣spective as follows:
1 ) The forever “48 Guozhuang” are a Kang￣ding urban memory, which displays the common cultural psychology of regarding Kangding as an important trade city of the Han and Tibetans; and Guozhuang carries a folk cultural memory of more than 200 years. After the gaitu guiliu policy ( re￣placement of native officials with centrally appoint￣ed officials) in the late Qing period, the number of newly appeared Guozhuang even reached 60 to 70 .“Although each of them had its own courtyard, and people also called them Guozhuang, they were still quite different from the 48 Guozhuang in the minds of the Kangding people”. This not only in￣dicates that the 48 Guozhuang within the orthodox system were deeply rooted in the hearts of the local people, but also reflects that Guozhuang were re￣garded as the most proper carrier for the communi￣cation between the Han and Tibetan during the late Qing period, otherwise so many Guozhuang court￣yards would not have appeared in history.
2 ) From the name to its architectural form, or function, a Guozhuang was influenced by the Han culture, however, it still had strong Tibetan char￣acteristics. Actually it could be regarded as a min￣iature of local culture of Kangding. Every Guozhuang had its own Tibetan name and Chinese name. The architectural style of the Guozhuang was actually different from traditional multiple -level blockhouse. There was always a courrtyard, and it was larger than that of Han. The vast court￣yard was not only a space for the Tibetan business￣man to cook food and boil tea, but also a space for organizing their entertainment activities, such as singing and dancing in a circle. You Tai, a minis￣ter of the Qing dynasty in Tibetan areas, recorded a grand dancing party organized by the local Tusi to welcome his arrival, which reflected the significant position of the Guozhuang in cultural activities. The upper-class of the Kham area, including Tusi and the Guozhuang host, tried to build a close re￣lationship with both Tibetan and Han in all means, including the title, kinship relation or customs, and successfully built up a central zone on which both sides can be understood. It was just due to the special geographical location and cultural tradi￣tion that made the reconstruction of a cross cultural buffer zone possible.
3 ) The managers of the Guozhuang were mainly the hostesses ( Ajia Kaba in Tibetan lan￣guage) , and this also reflected a kind of feminism in Kham culture. The tradition of the Dong nv guo ( East Kingdom of Women ) enabled the women to run their business in and out of the family. When the tea trade started, the Guozhuang host had to spend much of their energy on providing service to the Tusi, so the Guozhuang hostess took the re￣sponsibility of managing the business of the Guozhuang. Ajia normally controlled the initiative of negotiation in the Han-Tibetan trade, and they played the role of interpreters in the negotiation. There were many live -in son -in -laws in the family of the Guozhuang and this kind of marriage was even more popular in the period from the late Qing dynasty to the Republican era.
If we conduct an analysis of the value of Kangding Guozhuang from multiple dimensions, we would notice that the existence of the non-market interpersonal model in this institution, on some certain degree, had solved the problem of the lack of social cohesion resulting from marketization. From this angle, the value of Guozhuang culture in the improvement of the economic institutions of the market cannot be ignored.
This fieldwork also reflects the significant and comprehensive influence of the Guozhuang cultural heritage of Kangding. When viewed from this an￣gle, its value is incredible. According to the data collected from the fieldwork, all the people, inclu￣ding officials, scholars, businessman and ordinary people, are aware that the Guozhuang is a cultural heritage which has a high and comprehensive val￣ue. If the relevant government bodies could in￣clude it into the scope of heritage protection, and build it into a cultural space of intangible cultural heritage, it will have a much higher heritage val￣ue , and play an important role both in the econom￣ic development and construction of harmonious eth￣nic relationships.
The Kangding Guozhuang also played a role in the deconstruction of the Han - Tibetan social structure - this kind of value can not only be in￣troduced to the present world and influence the fu￣ture world, but also can be seen as a hub which connects the “ancient” and “modern” Han -Ti￣betan relations. Traditionally, there was a structur￣al rule in the communications between the Han and Tibetan, namely that “the Han and Tibetans are somewhat separated from each other ”, however, the Guozhuang model in Kangding deconstructed this Han-Tibetan rule. This was closely related to elements such as social composition, ways of life, marriage, family, kinship, and religious customs. The disappearance of Guozhuang also has its own causes, for instance, the absence of inheritors and failure in operation of this system. However, this article proposes that it is mainly influenced by the social reforms in the historical process. Hence, that is the reason why modern enterprises which re￣tain certain connotations of the Guozhuang could re-appear in the Kang area. In the survey, we no￣tice that some enterprises have already made efforts in this regard. In summary, Kangding Guozhuang had creatively formed a security institution with a more humanized nature, and played an important role in the alleviation of social tensions in ethnic areas. Contemporary society, composed as it is of people with multi-ethnic backgrounds, still needs this kind of “deconstruction”.     

民族文学国际传播中的文化传递——以《尘埃落定》英译本为例

中国民族文学作品的国际传播必须注意文化的传递,这对于塑造中华民族形象、突破他人话语体系、提升文化影响力具有重要意义。但由于文化空缺的存在,中国民族文化向外译介面临诸多难点。葛浩文夫妇翻译的阿来小说《尘埃落定》是将民族文化向国际传播的优秀成果,分析其在民族文化传递方面的得失和方法对于提高我国民族文学翻译质量和传播民族文化具有重要的借鉴意义。通过英汉文本比较发现,葛氏夫妇的译本综合采用了音译、直译、意译、形象借用等多种翻译手法,尽量保留了原作的文化意境,但也存在误译现象,扭曲或丢失了一些文化意象。总的来说,译本忠实地再现了川西高原土司制度瓦解时期的社会文化韵味,有效地传递了中国民族文化。     

雾霾感知风险与公众应对行为的实证分析

通过在雾霾严重时期收集的大规模问卷调查数据,建立了雾霾感知风险等因素与应对行为之间关系的结构方程模型.分析显示,对环境信息越敏感、雾霾感知风险越大、对雾霾知识了解越多、雾霾感知可控性越大的公众会采取更多的防护与应对措施,他们对相关防护产品的购买意愿也越强.特别是,感知风险在环境信息与应对行为以及环境满意度之间起着重要的中介变量作用,即当雾霾污染引起人们的感知风险时,会促使他们采取更多的应对行为,并且对环境满意度评价产生负面影响.另外,雾霾感知可控性在雾霾知识熟悉度与应对行为以及环境满意度之间起着部分中介变量的作用.     

Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation

Children represent a large underserved population of “therapeutic orphans,” as an estimated 80% of children are treated off‐label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or “borrowing”) of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure‐response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics.     

探析我国突发公共卫生危机治理的路向选择

文章就当前我国突发公共卫生危机应对只处于“管理”而非“治理”的现状,提出我国需要建设由政府部门、非政府组织、私营部门、公民个人和家庭及国际组织等全主体力量的参与,形成高度组织化的突发公共卫生危机治理体系,使之成为全主体、全危险要素、全过程应对突发公共卫生危机的长期合作网络和制度平台,即着眼全球视野的治理网络,凝聚全国组织治理公共卫生危机的整体合力;着力全主体应急平台建设,整合全部资源畅通公共卫生危机的信息机制;着手全方位应急预案体系,操演全新流程强化公共卫生危机的响应计划;着重全国民疾病防控体系,强化全员监督提高公共卫生危机的应对能力;着实全社会应急知识宣教,推动全民学习锻造公共卫生危机的组织实力。     

美国次级贷引发的经济学深层思考

现实生活中许多现象令人眼花瞭乱,以致于因果难分,本末倒置.在经济领域里,实物与货币、实体经济与虚拟经济是什么样的关系?在市场经济条件下,政府与市场应该如何分工?在全球化的经济下面,能否跳出狭隘的国家和地区利益,建立起平等公正的经济秩序,并且由超越国家利益的世界组织出面协调各国之间的利益关系?要解决这些问题,经济学研究必须抓住本原的经济问题,在已经错乱的经济基本关系上辨明明非,促进经济健康稳定发展.     

20世纪初美国社会现实的艺术再现——评《被背弃的老祖母》

美国现代主义小说家凯萨琳·安恩·波特的小说以其细腻的描写、娴熟的技巧和深邃的思想内涵而深受读者、评论家和作家的赞扬和推崇。她的短篇小说《被背弃的老祖母》采用象征和意识流的写作手法,反映了20世纪初美国社会现实。本文对作品中的象征手法和意识流手法进行了仔细分析。     

坚持以社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮

在社会转型时期,我国社会思潮呈现多样化、结构失衡、总体发展混乱和无序等新特点。坚持以社会主义核心价值体系引领社会思潮,是以胡锦涛为总书记的党中央基于对中国特色社会主义伟大事业新的文化自觉而作出的一大战略举措,反映了全国各族人民的共同愿望和意志。尊重差异,包容多样,最大限度地形成社会思想共识,相辅相成,共同构成社会主义和谐文化的重要标志,为构建社会主义和谐社会奠定坚实的思想基础。     

以人为本的马克思主义入学底蕴探析

党的十七大全面总结和概括了当代中国马克思主义理论发展的最新成果,构建了中国特色社会主义理论体系,对科学发展观的理论内涵及其历史地位进行了深刻的阐述。以人为本作为科学发展观的实质和核心,内涵极其丰富,对马克思主义人学思想的继承和发展,具有重大的现实意义。