On Order Statistics from Sine Distribution

We derive closed form expressions for the first two moments of order statistics from the sine distribution. For the higher moments, a recurrence relation is given. We also give a recurrence relation for the product moments. These relations will be useful for moment computations based on ordered data.     

Statistical analysis for Kumaraswamy’s distribution based on record data

In this paper we review some results that have been derived on record values for some well known probability density functions and based on m records from Kumaraswamy’s distribution we obtain estimators for the two parameters and the future sth record value. These estimates are derived using the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. In the Bayesian approach, the two parameters are assumed to be random variables and estimators for the parameters and for the future sth record value are obtained, when we have observed m past record values, using the well known squared error loss (SEL) function and a linear exponential (LINEX) loss function. The findings are illustrated with actual and computer generated data.     

Bargaining and Reputation

The paper develops a reputation based theory of bargaining. The idea is to investigate and highlight the influence of bargaining ‘postures’ on bargaining outcomes. A complete information bargaining model a la Rubinstein is amended to accommodate ‘irrational types’ who are obstinate, and indeed for tractability assumed to be completely inflexible in their offers and demands. A strong ‘independence of procedures’ result is derived: after initial postures have been adopted, the bargaining outcome is independent of the fine details of the bargaining protocol so long as both players have the opportunity to make offers frequently. The latter analysis yields a unique continuous‐time limit with a war of attrition structure. In the continuous‐time game, equilibrium is unique, and entails delay, consequently inefficiency. The equilibrium outcome reflects the combined influence of the rates of time preference of the players and the ex ante probabilities of different irrational types. As the probability of irrationality goes to zero, delay and inefficiency disappear; furthermore, if there is a rich set of types for both agents, the limit equilibrium payoffs are inversely proportional to their rates of time preference.     

谁的“现代”? 怎样的“诗”?——论现代新诗的基本立场与平台

百年新诗的发展与二十世纪以来中国文学文化的现代化基本同步,因而对新诗的种种争论和探讨,便不能脱离我们对于现代中国的历史认知与感受,不能脱离于新诗作者自身的现代生存体验,而不必在西方"现代性"的影子下亦步亦趋。对于新诗,怎样的言说才是有效的?我们能否寻求和拥有一些基本的立场和视角以便共享一个最基本的对话平台,而不是让争论成为新诗资源的不断内耗和似是而非的自说自话?现代新诗的"现代"与"诗"就是这样的"平台"之一,这样的寻求有时并不在别处,它就在中国现代新诗发生的起端。     

Distribution of product and quotient of bivariate generalized exponential distribution

In this work we derive closed form expressions for the probability density functions and moments of the quotient and product of the components of the bivariate generalized exponential distribution introduced by Kundu and Gupta (J Multivariate Anal, 100:581–593, 2009) and compute the percentage points. The derivations will be useful for practitioners of this bivariate model. We then give a real data application of the product.     

积极心理学视角下大学生择业效能感的自我提升策略

从积极心理学的研究视角出发,在对择业效能感的基本内涵进行阐释的基础上,分析了它对大学生职业行为和职业发展的影响,进而运用积极心理学的相关理论观点,就大学生择业效能感的自我提升策略作多层面的探讨。     

基于投入产出非线性优化的制造业完全能耗强度情景分析

当前,环境污染仍为中国最突出的问题之一,而降低制造业完全能耗强度是减少消耗及污染的重要途径。本文基于投入产出非线性优化理论,以制造业完全能耗强度最小为目标,并以18个行业最终需求为决策变量,构建了一个完全能耗强度非线性优化模型,特引入了进出口系数等约束条件,并基于已有投入产出表等数据,预测调整模型的相关系数。在此基础上,设计了三个方案与两个情景,并运用粒子群算法求解模型。结果表明:2015年中国制造业完全能耗强度最小值区间为0.7823-0.9048tce/万元,相比2010年,下降率区间为8.9%-21.31%。在高方案情景2下,可实现制造业完全能耗强度降低20%的目标。为实现该目标,应促进中低能耗制造业发展、降低高能耗制造业的完全能耗量、适当提高消费和进口系数并降低投资和出口系数。本文既有利于政府部门制定科学系统的节能减排政策,也有利于深化能源经济与管理理论。     

侦查程序中刑事证明的几个问题

我国侦查程序中刑事证明的理论存在着许多问题,如刑事证明的内涵及其与事实查明之间的界线,令状主义和人身保护令制度引入的必要性,侦查机关证明责任及证明标准的建构等等,这些都值得进一步深入探讨.     

Random Choice as Behavioral Optimization

We develop an extension of Luce's random choice model to study violations of the weak axiom of revealed preference. We introduce the notion of a stochastic preference and show that it implies the Luce model. Then, to address well‐known difficulties of the Luce model, we define the attribute rule and establish that the existence of a well‐defined stochastic preference over attributes characterizes it. We prove that the set of attribute rules and random utility maximizers are essentially the same. Finally, we show that both the Luce and attribute rules have a unique consistent extension to dynamic problems.     

高校课程思政评价的原则、模式与方法

高校课程思政评价应遵循政治性、融合性、实效性等原则,着力从评价内容、评价机制、评价体系、评价场域等方面形成符合教育教学规律和课程思政特点的评价模式,并在实践中坚持质性评价与量化评价、过程性评价与结果性评价、诊断性评价与发展性评价相结合的评价方法,构建起科学合理的课程思政评价结构,进而激发课程思政内生性改革,推动课程思政规范化建设,全面提升课程思政质效。