加入WTO以来中国农业产业安全分析

加入WTO以来,随着中国农产品市场开放程度加大,国外大量农产品和直接投资进入中国市场,对中国农业产业安全形成一定威胁。采用熵权法实证测量加入WTO以来大豆、玉米和棉花三类敏感性农产品产业安全水平的演变,进而从进口来源地和进口依赖性两方面探寻产业安全的威胁源头。研究表明:大豆产业已处于"危机"状态,主要威胁来自美国;玉米产业由"基本安全"转为"不安全"状态,主要威胁来自美国;棉花产业也处于"危机"状态,主要威胁来自美国和印度。针对中国农业产业安全状况,提出加强农业产业安全风险预警预控研究,确保农产品进口量与国内产业保护力度成正比以及构建农业产业安全保护体系的对策建议。     

论创新主体的历史变迁

本文分析了传统创新理论中关于创新主体的论述，指出了这些理论提出的背景和价值。通过比较分析，作者认为人们对创新主体的认识并非一成不变，而是呈现出一定的变过规律，即由企业家作为唯一的创新主体或包括企业家，技术人员乃至其他各类管理人员等在内的多个个体作为创新工作转向以组织为创新主体。文章的最后，论述了组织作为创新主体在管理中的实践意义。     

Domestic violence against women: A field study in Turkey

Factors affecting domestic violence against women in four Turkish cities (Adıyaman, Sivas, Denizli and Kırklareli) having different socioeconomic structures, are analyzed in this study. These factors consist of social, cultural, economic and psychological factors. In contrast to what we expected based on earlier literature, family income level has a positive relationship with violence. Logistic regression analysis also revealed that being a university graduate and having a personal income decreases the prevalence of violence as expected. However, working women and women with children are more prone to domestic violence. Again, there is a strong association between the neighborhood where the family lives and the incidence of violence. The extent of male dominance, as measured by the question “How are decisions taken in the family” is also associated with domestic violence: woman is less likely to be abused in households where decisions are taken collectively. Likewise, families where women have to get permission from the husband to carry out certain activities, have an increased incidence of suffering from husband's violence. Psychological factors, like being abused or having witnessed violence as a child, are also significantly correlated with domestic violence.     

Synergistic effect of social support and self-efficacy on physical exercise in older adults

The purpose of the current study was to examine whether the effects of social support on physical exercise in older adults depend on individual perceptions of self-efficacy. Three hundred nine older German adults (age 65-85) were assessed at 3 points in time (3 months apart). In hierarchical-regression analyses, support received from friends and exercise self-efficacy were specified as predictors of exercise frequency while baseline exercise, sex, age, and physical functioning were controlled for. Besides main effects of self-efficacy and social support, an interaction between social support and self-efficacy emerged. People with low self-efficacy were less likely to be active in spite of having social support. People with low support were less likely to be active even if they were high in self-efficacy. This points to the importance of both social support and self-efficacy and implies that these resources could be targets of interventions to increase older adults' exercise.     

王阳明“南赣乡约”的实践及其历史经验——明清乡约运动的典型个案研究

王阳明"南赣乡约"实践作为明清乡约运动的典范,其推行的乡约组织在适应性、专门化、自主性、凝聚力四个方面凸显了较高的制度化水平。"南赣乡约"组织的正当性、权威性是其成功的重要基础,而将乡民纳入到乡约组织中,由此获得乡民对"南赣乡约"的高度政治认同则是其取得良好效果的另一个重要内在因素。"南赣乡约"的历史经验主要有三:通过乡约制度及其乡约组织规范乡土社会公共行为;乡约须基于大多数乡民意愿而制定,民意即乡民合意性是乡约及其组织合法性、权威性的基础,也是透过乡约整合乡村社会秩序的关键;乡约可以将乡民组织起来,培养乡民参与乡村自治的能力。     

传统乡规民约的价值、经验与启示 —基于《南赣乡约》文本分析的视角

作为乡土社会一道文化景观,乡规民约对于维护乡村社会秩序起到促进作用.反思当前村规民约的实践困境,我们应当如何看待传统乡规民约,则成为值得研究的问题.文章以《南赣乡约》为分析对象,从文本内容、组织特征、权威来源以及作用机制四个方面进行初步的探讨.在总结乡规民约的价值经验及其对村民自治启示基础上,文章讨论了进一步研究的可能方向.     

科技创新是推动先进生产力发展的关键

在科学技术成为先进生产力的集中体现和主要标志的今天 ,科技创新无疑已成为先进生产力发展的先导 ,成为推动先进生产力发展的第一要素和主要驱动力。     

Treacherous Productions of Fantasy: Ağaoğlu Housing Commercials

Ali A?ao?lu is the leading figure in the construction industry in Turkey, specializing in luxury housing estates. His sales figures have reached record levels since the early 2000s, far surpassing those of other similar entrepreneurs’. While governmental policies that prioritize the development of the construction sector partially account for A?ao?lu’s commercial success, we contend that the analysis of popular media images is essential in order to understand his estates’ popularity. Based on a close reading of his media appearances in housing commercials and interviews in the light of psychoanalytical theory, we argue that A?ao?lu has manufactured a realizable fantasy for his clients, which structures their desires in the cultural context of consumer capitalism. However, the limits of A?ao?lu’s fantasy world of housing were tested in an unexpected outbreak in one of his estates, where the homeowers traversed their fantasies.     

“宽严相济”：一个被误读的刑事政策

宽严相济的刑事政策是党和国家为构建和谐社会而作出的重大政治决策。现阶段,＂宽严相济＂是轻刑政策与重刑政策的统一;它是一项刑事司法政策,而不是基本刑事政策。它是＂惩办与宽大相结合＂刑事政策的组成部分。     

The skew generalized t distribution as the scale mixture of a skew exponential power distribution and its applications in robust estimation

In this paper, we consider the family of skew generalized t (SGT) distributions originally introduced by Theodossiou [P. Theodossiou, Financial data and the skewed generalized t distribution, Manage. Sci. Part 1 44 (12) ( 1998), pp. 1650–1661] as a skew extension of the generalized t (GT) distribution. The SGT distribution family warrants special attention, because it encompasses distributions having both heavy tails and skewness, and many of the widely used distributions such as Student's t, normal, Hansen's skew t, exponential power, and skew exponential power (SEP) distributions are included as limiting or special cases in the SGT family. We show that the SGT distribution can be obtained as the scale mixture of the SEP and generalized gamma distributions. We investigate several properties of the SGT distribution and consider the maximum likelihood estimation of the location, scale, and skewness parameters under the assumption that the shape parameters are known. We show that if the shape parameters are estimated along with the location, scale, and skewness parameters, the influence function for the maximum likelihood estimators becomes unbounded. We obtain the necessary conditions to ensure the uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators for the location, scale, and skewness parameters, with known shape parameters. We provide a simple iterative re-weighting algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimates for the location, scale, and skewness parameters and show that this simple algorithm can be identified as an EM-type algorithm. We finally present two applications of the SGT distributions in robust estimation.