The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?

Good policy making should be based on available scientific knowledge. Sometimes this knowledge is well established through research, but often scientists must simply express their judgment, and this is particularly so in risk scenarios that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Usually in such cases, the opinions of several experts will be sought in order to pool knowledge and reduce error, raising the question of whether individual expert judgments should be given different weights. We argue—against the commonly advocated “classical method”—that no significant benefits are likely to accrue from unequal weighting in mathematical aggregation. Our argument hinges on the difficulty of constructing reliable and valid measures of substantive expertise upon which to base weights. Practical problems associated with attempts to evaluate experts are also addressed. While our discussion focuses on one specific weighting scheme that is currently gaining in popularity for expert knowledge elicitation, our general thesis applies to externally imposed unequal weighting schemes more generally.     

A meta-analytic examination of the potential correlates and consequences of workload

Over the last four decades, occupational stress researchers have given considerable attention to the potential correlates and consequences of workload. In the current study, we use meta-analysis (overall k = 336) to quantitatively review the workload literature. In analyses of hypothesized correlates, we found that social support was negatively associated (ρ = ?.20 for supervisor support; ρ = –.11 for co-worker support) and that trait negative affectivity (ρ = .22), role ambiguity (ρ = .28), role conflict (ρ = .44) and work-family conflict (ρ = .44 for work-to-family conflict; ρ = .20 for family-to-work conflict) were each positively associated with workload. Analyses examining hypothesized outcome variables suggest that workload is negatively associated with several indices of psychological and physical well-being (ρs were generally in the –.20s and –.30s), and affective organizational commitment (ρ = –.11), and is positively associated with turnover intention (ρ = .16) and absenteeism (ρ = .07).     

Concentration of the retail sector and trapped brands

This article explores how the growth in concentration of the retail trade has influenced both the strategies and performances of brands within the FMCG industry. Three mature markets within the FMCG industry—tea, toothpaste and dishwashing liquid—are examined over a 13-year period (1982–1993). The study compares the strategies of dominant brands in these markets against those of second tier brands. Four key brand strategies—advertising, distribution, number of brand variants and pricing—are closely examined. The study illustrates the increasing divergence in the strategic profile of dominant and second tier brands and the emergence of a group of brands, termed ‘trapped’ brands, which are particularly vulnerable as a consequence of consolidation of the retail trade.     

De-noising by thresholding operator adapted wavelets

Statistics and Computing - Donoho and Johnstone (Ann Stat 26(3):879–921, 1998) proposed a method from reconstructing an unknown smooth function u from noisy data $$u+\zeta $$ by translating...     

Stepping Stones to Permanent Employment in the Public Service

Abstract. Labour force transitions are investigated using a longitudinal database covering staff movements in the Queensland public service. The database covers those who have entered the public service through traditional recruitment methods as well as those who have entered through temporary and casual appointments. The analysis is based on a new methodology of cumulative incidence function testing and competing risks regression analysis. Interest is centred on entry by non‐standard employees and their subsequent transition through the public service. It was found that non‐standard employment can be a stepping stone to permanent employment but only for about one in four new non‐standard employees.     

Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: Polarization,Individualization or ‘Middle Class Squeeze’?

Following an unprecedented boom, since 2008 Ireland has experienced a severe economic and labour market crisis. Considerable debate persists as to where the heaviest burden of the recession has fallen. Conventional measures of relative income poverty and inequality have a limited capacity to capture the impact of the recession in terms of social exclusion. This is exacerbated by a dramatic increase in the scale of debt problems including significant negative equity issues. Our analysis provides no evidence for individualization or class polarization of risk. Instead, while economic stress level is highly stratified in class terms in both boom and bust periods, the changing impact of class is highly contingent on life course stage. An income based classification showed that the affluent income class saw its advantage relative to the income poor class decline at the earliest stage of the life-course and remain stable across the rest of the life course. At the other end of the hierarchy, the income poor class experienced a relative improvement in their situation in the earlier life-course phase and no significant change at the later stages. For the remaining income classes, life-course stage was even more important. At the earliest stage the precarious class experienced some improvement in its situation while the outcomes for the middle classes remain unchanged. In the mid-life course the precarious and lower middle classes experienced disproportionate increases in their stress levels while at the later stage it is the combined middle classes that lost out. Additional effects over time relating to social class are restricted to the deteriorating situation of the petit bourgeoisie at the middle stage of the life-course. The pattern is clearly a good deal more complex than that suggested by conventional notions of ‘middle class squeeze’ and points to the distinctive challenges relating to welfare and taxation policy faced by governments in the Great Recession.