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141.
George‐Marios Angeletos Jennifer La'O 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2013,81(2):739-779
This paper develops a new theory of fluctuations—one that helps accommodate the notions of “animal spirits” and “market sentiment” in unique‐equilibrium, rational‐expectations, macroeconomic models. To this goal, we limit the communication that is embedded in a neoclassical economy by allowing trading to be random and decentralized. We then show that the business cycle may be driven by a certain type of extrinsic shocks which we call sentiments. These shocks formalize shifts in expectations of economic activity without shifts in the underlying preferences and technologies; they are akin to sunspots, but operate in unique‐equilibrium models. We further show how communication may help propagate these shocks in a way that resembles the spread of fads and rumors and that gives rise to boom‐and‐bust phenomena. We finally illustrate the quantitative potential of our insights within a variant of the RBC model. 相似文献
142.
Bogdan C. Bichescu Michael J. Fry George G. Polak 《Production and Operations Management》2009,18(1):33-47
We model a situation where a firm wishes to balance workload requirements by creating a portfolio of recurrent insourcing and outsourcing contracts. We use harmonic analysis to decompose an input workload profile into a portfolio of insourcing and outsourcing contracts using rectangular‐wave basis functions to better achieve some desired constant workload level. However, this initial selection of contracts may result in impractical options. Therefore, we also develop mathematical programs using principles from goal programming and integer programming to refine the portfolio of contracts to more accurately reflect a realistic environment by placing constraints on the available contracts and explicitly considering operational costs. We consider several modeling extensions including the ability to hold limited amounts of inventory and the use of one‐shot contracts to supplement our portfolio of recurrent contracts. 相似文献
143.
George P. Mccabe 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(7):765-776
When the probabilities underlying a contingency table are assumed to be symmetric, it is advantageous to combine the frequencies of equiprobable cells (Haber, 1981, 1982).The present work introduces models, as well as exact and asymptotic methods, for analyzing such ‘intraclass’ contingency tables in several dimensions. 相似文献
144.
I counterexample is presented to the result by Alam and Malleolus asserting that if Y is stochastically increasing in a random vector X, then Y is stochastically increasing in a subvector of X. Their result concerning m*-positive dependence, whose proof relies on the erroneous result, is still true. 相似文献
145.
146.
This article considered several test statistics for testing the population signal-to-noise ratio based on parametric, nonparametric, and modified methods. To compare the performance of the proposed test statistics, a simulation study has been conducted under both symmetric and skewed distributions. The performance of the test statistics is compared based on the empirical size and power of the test. It is evident for large sample that some of our proposed test statistics are performing better in the sense of high power and have been recommended for the researchers. 相似文献
147.
This paper is concerned with classical statistical estimation of the reliability function for the exponential density with unknown mean failure time θ, and with a known and fixed mission time τ. The minimum variance unbiased (MVU) estimator and the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator are reviewed and their mean square errors compared for different sample sizes. These comparisons serve also to extend previous work, and reinforce further the nonexistence of a uniformly best estimator. A class of shrunken estimators is then defined, and it produces a shrunken quasi-estimator and a shrunken estimator. The mean square errors for both these estimators are compared to the mean square errors of the MVU and ML estimators, and the new estimators are found to perform very well. Unfortunately, these estimators are difficult to compute for practical applications. A second class of estimators, which is easy to compute is also developed. Its mean square error properties are compared to the other estimators, and it outperforms all the contending estimators over the high and low reliability parameter space. Since, for all the estimators, analytical mean square error comparisons are not tractable, extensive numerical analyses are done in obtaining both the exact small sample and large sample results. 相似文献
148.
In this note we obtain upper and lower bounds for the kth largest number in a set of real numbers in terms of their mean and standard deviation. For each inequality necessary and sufficient conditions for equality are given. 相似文献
149.
An important step in the statistical problem-solving process is the selection of the appropriate statistical procedure for the real-world situation under analysis. A decision-tree term project has been found to be an effective teaching device to help MBA students understand this step. The project requires the students to construct a decision-tree structure, which, through a series of questions and responses, will lead from the statement of a statistical question to the appropriate sampling distribution to use in addressing the question. 相似文献
150.
Melissa R.W. George Na Yang Jessalyn Smith Thomas Jaki Daniel J. Feaster 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2013,83(4):759-772
Mild to moderate skew in errors can substantially impact regression mixture model results; one approach for overcoming this includes transforming the outcome into an ordered categorical variable and using a polytomous regression mixture model. This is effective for retaining differential effects in the population; however, bias in parameter estimates and model fit warrant further examination of this approach at higher levels of skew. The current study used Monte Carlo simulations; 3000 observations were drawn from each of two subpopulations differing in the effect of X on Y. Five hundred simulations were performed in each of the 10 scenarios varying in levels of skew in one or both classes. Model comparison criteria supported the accurate two-class model, preserving the differential effects, while parameter estimates were notably biased. The appropriate number of effects can be captured with this approach but we suggest caution when interpreting the magnitude of the effects. 相似文献