LEANING AGAINST WINDY BANK LENDING

Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that monetary policy reacted to bank loan growth in the United States during the Great Moderation. It then shows that the optimized simple interest‐rate rule features no response to the growth of bank credit. However, the welfare loss associated to the empirical responsiveness is small. The sources of business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining whether a “leaning‐against‐the‐wind” policy is optimal or not. In fact, the predominant role of supply shocks in the model gives rise to a trade‐off between inflation and financial stabilization. (JEL E32, E44, E52)     

Psychophysical conditions and hormonal secretion in nurses on a rapidly rotating shift schedule and exposed to bright light during night work

The psychophysical conditions of 15 young female nurses, working in a rapidly-rotating shift system (2-2-2-2), modified according to some psychophysiological criteria, and exposed to short period (4 × 20 min) of bright light (2350 Lux) during their night duty, were studied in order to evaluate their adaptation to night work and to test a possible positive effect on it of bright light. Subjective evaluations of work load and psychophysical conditions, performance measures, hormonal excretion (cortisol, 6-sulphatoxymelatonin and catecholamines), oral temperature and activity-sleep logs were taken during the shiftwork cycle, comprising one morning, one afternoon and two consecutive nights under normal and bright light. The results showed that this rapidly-rotating shift system had little effect upon the normal circadian rhythms of the body. Moreover, the lengthening of the night shift to 10 h can be considered to be acceptable, provided that work load is reduced and there are sufficient rest pauses available. On the other hand, the reduction to 7 h of the length of the day shifts and delayed start of the morning shift to 07:00 h appeared to be convenient both in relation to the work load and sleep duration. Some positive effects of bright light upon psychophysical conditions and performance efficiency were noted, while hormonal excretion and body temperature did not show any effect of bright light; in particular, melatonin excretion was not suppressed appreciably by the bright light used.     

Psychophysical conditions of air traffic controllers evaluated by the standard shiftwork index

Abstract

In the ambit of a large epidemiological survey on the Italian population of air traffic controllers, an evaluation of their health conditions was carried out using the Standard Shiftwork Index (SSI). The study took into consideration 572 male air traffic controllers, aged between 23 and 59 years, of whom 301 were engaged in three large Regional Centres, 189 in thirteen Airport Towers and 82. formerly active controllers, were working in administrative offices. The former controllers showed worse health levels, in particular minor psychological disorders and chronic fatigue. Sixteen of them had been transferred to administrative jobs because of health impairment, owing to severe diseases of the nervous, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular systems. Such disorders, and musculoskeletal ones, were mostly reported by the active controllers. The controllers engaged in Regional Centres showed more sleep disturbances than those engaged in towers. Beside age, some personal characteristics appeared to influence health and well-being. Neuroticism was correlated with chronic fatigue, digestive and cardiovascular complaints, minor psychological disorders, cognitive and somatic anxiety. On the other hand, morningness was correlated negatively with sleep disturbances on morning shift, and positively with sleep duration both on morning shift and rest days.     

Behavioural Addictions in Adolescents and Young Adults: Results from a Prevalence Study

Our study aims to assess the prevalence of behavioural addictions in an adolescent population, evaluating the effects of gender and age, and to assess the correlations among different behavioural addictions. 2853 high school students were assessed in order to evaluate the prevalence of behavioural addictions such as Pathological Gambling (PG), Compulsive Buying (CB), Exercise Addiction (EA), Internet Addiction (IA), and Work Addiction (WA), in a population of Italian adolescents. The South Oaks Gambling Screen-Revised Adolescent (SOGS-RA), the Compulsive Buying Scale (CBS), the Exercise Addiction Inventory (EAI), the Internet Addiction Test (IAT), and the Work Addiction Risk Test (WART), were compiled anonymously by the students. Overall prevalence was 7.0% for PG, 11.3% for CB, 1.2% for IA, 7.6% for WA, 8.5% for EA. PG and EA were more common among boys, while gender had no effect on the other conditions. CB was more common among younger (<18 years old) students. The scores of all of these scales were significantly correlated. The strong correlation among different addictive behaviours is in line with the hypothesis of a common psychopathological dimension underlying these phenomena. Further studies are needed to assess personality traits and other clinical disorders associated with these problems behaviours.     

Computation of Sharp Bounds on the Expected Value of a Supermodular Function of Risks with Given Marginals

We show that the rearrangement algorithm (RA) introduced in Puccetti and Rüschendorf (2012 Puccetti, G., Rüschendorf, L. (2012). Computation of sharp bounds on the distribution of a function of dependent risks. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 236(7):1833–1840.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to compute distributional bounds can be used also to compute sharp lower and upper bounds on the expected value of a supermodular function of d random variables having fixed marginal distributions. Compared to the analytical methods existing in the literature the algorithm is widely applicable, more easily obtained and gives insight into the dependence structures attaining the bounds.     

Dimensionality reduction approach to multivariate prediction

The authors consider dimensionality reduction methods used for prediction, such as reduced rank regression, principal component regression and partial least squares. They show how it is possible to obtain intermediate solutions by estimating simultaneously the latent variables for the predictors and for the responses. They obtain a continuum of solutions that goes from reduced rank regression to principal component regression via maximum likelihood and least squares estimation. Different solutions are compared using simulated and real data.     

Motivation, Purpose and Processes in Pension Reform

The worldwide nature of the pension reform debate and the wind of change which seems to prevail justify the search for clear answers to three questions: (1) Why change the legislative and institutional framework of social security? (2) What do governments and society at large hope to achieve through change? and (3) If change is desirable, how can it be achieved without disrupting the country's social and financial order? The motivations which incite reformers fall into a few neat categories. A simple typology, as suggested in this article, should help avoid confusion in the public interpretation of recent policies and trends. A regrettable source of untidiness in the pension reform debate is also the use of ambiguous terminology. This is not merely a semantic concern. It has to do with the political meaning that the term conveys, as it may reflect an ideological stance and thus become a divisive issue. Another advantage of putting pension reform into a clearer conceptual framework is that it introduces and explains five specific goals which are common to all contemporary reformers. They are (1) social acceptability, (2) financial sustainability, (3) political feasibility, (4) coherence with economic and labour market realities, and (5) client-friendly management and administration. Ideally the perfect reform should aim at all five goals. In the real world, however, reformers have to settle for less because political feasibility – one of the five – is likely to limit their ambitions of fully meeting the other four.     

On the adjudication of conflicting claims: an experimental study

This paper reports an experimental study on three well-known solutions for problems of adjudicating conflicting claims: the constrained equal awards, the proportional, and the constrained equal losses rules. We first let subjects play three games designed such that the unique equilibrium allocation coincides with the recommendation of one of these three rules. In addition, we let subjects play an additional game that has the property that all (and only) strategy profiles in which players coordinate on the same rule constitute a strict Nash equilibrium. While in the first three games subjects’ play easily converges to the unique equilibrium rule, in the last game the proportional rule overwhelmingly prevails as a coordination device, especially when we frame the game as an hypothetical bankruptcy situation. We also administered a questionnaire to a different group of students, asking them to act as impartial arbitrators to solve (among others) the same problems played in the lab. Also in this case, respondents were sensitive to the framing of the questions, but the proportional rule was selected by the vast majority of respondents.     

Detection of an unknown increase in the rate of a rare event

Control charts for detecting shifts in the rate of occurrences of rare events are usually implemented by fixing a priori the change to be optimally detected, i.e. under the assumption that the change is from a baseline in-control value to a known out-of-control value. In practice, this assumption is never satisfied. A solution to that problem, mainly devoted to the real world of continuous surveillance, is developed here in terms of a natural extension of the minimizing out-of-control averge run length (ARL) criterion. As an illustrative application, the procedure is analytically solved for the exponential Sets charts. In this case, exact numerical tables of the expected out-of-control ARL, based on the proposed criterion, are also given.