On the Non-attainability of Chebyshev Bounds

In this department The American Statistician publishes articles, reviews, and notes of interest to teachers of the first mathematical statistics course and of applied statistics courses. The department includes the Accent on Teaching Materials section; suitable contents for the section are described under the section heading. Articles and notes for the department, but not intended specifically for the section, should be useful to a substantial number of teachers of the indicated types of courses or should have the potential for fundamentally affecting the way in which a course is taught.     

Linking early social risks to impaired physical health during the transition to adulthood

The present longitudinal study of 485 youth used structural equation models to investigate the ways in which a combination of social disadvantage in the family of origin and adolescent maladjustment increases risk for physical health difficulties during adulthood. The study examined a theoretical model that proposes that disruptions in the transition to adulthood mediate the effect of earlier social disadvantage and adolescent maladjustment on young adult physical health status. Results show that early risk factors initiate a sequence of negative influences on young adult physical health through early entry into family responsibility, truncated educational attainment, and poor occupational and economic status. These associations prevailed even after controlling for physical health status during adolescence.     

Important Yet Ignored: Problems of 'Expertise' in Emergency Duty Social Work

Summary This paper deals with the important role that emergency dutyworkers play in respect of the variety of situations that arereferred to them outside of the normal working hours of socialservices departments. The first section presents some interimoutcomes of ongoing research suggesting that the variabilityof priorities and assessments made by such workers is even greaterthan might be intuitively expected. The paper questions whetherconventional expectations of social work assessment are applicablein circumstances that are radically different from day-timework. In the second section, the paper explores the evidentmoral dilemmas contained in these circumstances, highlightingthe need for workers to have internalized as ‘expert’as broad a grasp as possible of the diversity of values andmethods of social assessment, decision-making and intervention.The paper continues by considering the nature of expert methodssuitable for the demands of emergency duty work, the need forguidelines for professional judgement, and an appropriate genericframework.     

A simple hidden markov model for bayesian modeling with time dependent data

Consider a set of real valued observations collected over time. We pro¬pose a simple hidden Markow model for these realizations in which the the predicted distribution of the next future observation given the past is easily computed. The hidden or unobservable set of parameters is assumed to have a Markov structure of a special type. The model is quite flexible and can be used to incorporate different types of prior information in straightforward and sensible ways.