Evidence for the use of an algorithm in resolving inconsistent and missing Indigenous status in administrative data collections

Measures of the gap in living standards, life expectancy, education, health and employment between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous Australians are primarily derived from administrative data sources. However, Indigenous identification in these data sources is affected by administrative practices, missing data, inconsistency, and error. As these factors have changed over time, assessing whether the gap between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous Australians has changed over time, based on data unadjusted for these sources of error can potentially lead to misguided conclusions. Combining administrative data on the same individuals collected from different sources provides a method by which a more consistent derived Indigenous status can be applied across all records for an individual within a linked data environment. We used the Western Australian Data Linkage system to produce derived Indigenous statuses for individuals using a range of algorithms. We found that these algorithms reduced the amount of missing data and improved within‐individual consistency. Based on these findings, we recommend our Multi‐Stage Median algorithm be used as the standard indicator of Indigenous status for any reporting based on administrative datasets when multiple datasets are available for linkage, and that algorithmic approaches also be considered for improving the quality of other demographic variables from administrative data sources.     

Population Density and Fertility in 22 Indian Villages

Do agriculturists in the Third World sometimes adjust to increasing population density by having fewer children? Over-time data (1961–1972) for 22 farm villages in India point to such a possibility. Cross-sectionally, villages with higher density tend to have lower fertility, even with controls for village caste composition, prior fertility, female literacy, and agricultural production. Similarly, the regression coefficient for village density is negative when the cross-sections are “pooled.” Population density apparently has an inhibiting effect on fertility in these villages.     

Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972–1988

In seeking to explain recent trends in population distribution, there has been increased interest in residential preferences. This study is a comparison of preferences based on 1972 and 1988 national surveys, years that bracket a period of considerable change in distribution patterns. Over time there has been a small shift in preference toward cities less than 500,000 in size, primarily by those already living there. Rural settings, especially near cities, continue to be very attractive. At both times studied, more than half of those preferring a smaller or more remote place would retain this preference even if it meant 10% less income. Nevertheless, the proportion preferring to live more than 30 miles from a large city was unchanged and approximately equal to the proportion already living there at both times, indicating that a discrepancy between where people live and where they want to live is not an important basis for the upturn in nonmetropolitan growth away from large cities in the 1970s or the downturn in the 1980s.     

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States

As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration "signature patterns" for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this "neighborhood" approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.     

Dialing for Dollars: Opportunities,Justifications, and Telemarketing Fraud

Opportunities for deviant economic exploitation grew significantly in the second half of the twentieth century. Drawing from interviews with forty-seven fraudulent telemarketers, this article describes the backgrounds and pursuits of one type of deviant actor that has stepped forward to exploit these opportunities. The men and women interviewed for this research were reared in middle-class, disproportionately managerial and entrepreneurial families. Their class and family backgrounds provided them with high, but ill-defined, expectations for material success. Their preparation for successful conventional careers was unremarkable. As a result, they were predisposed to economic activities that required few credentials but provided a high income. Once involved in and aware of the deviant nature of their endeavors, continuation in fraud was facilitated by the income it produced and the lifestyle it permitted, by self-definitions enhanced by their manipulative abilities, and by acquisition and use of a vocabulary of motive that deflected blame. An augmented version of sociological strain theory provides an analytic vantage point from which to examine the backgrounds, aspirations, and perspectives of those involved in fraudulent telemarketing.     

An Approach for Balancing Health and Ecological Risks at Hazardous Waste Sites

Human health and ecological risks must be balanced at hazardous waste sites in order to ensure that remedial actions prevent unacceptable risks of either type. Actions that are designed to protect humans may fail to protect nonhuman populations and ecosystems or may damage ecosystems. However, there is no common scale of health and ecological risk that would allow comparisons to be performed. This paper presents an approach to addressing this problem based on classifying all risks (i.e., health and ecological risks due contaminants and remediation) as insignificant ( de minimis ), highly significant ( de manifestis ), or intermediate. For health risks the classification is based on standard criteria. However, in the absence of national guidance concerning the acceptability of ecological risks, new ecological criteria are proposed based on an analysis of regulatory precedents. Matrices and flow charts are presented to guide the use of these risk categories in remedial decision making. The assessment of mercury contamination of the East Fork Poplar Creek is presented as an example of the implementation of the approach.     

Estimating likelihoods for spatio-temporal models using importance sampling

This paper describes how importance sampling can be applied to estimate likelihoods for spatio-temporal stochastic models of epidemics in plant populations, where observations consist of the set of diseased individuals at two or more distinct times. Likelihood computation is problematic because of the inherent lack of independence of the status of individuals in the population whenever disease transmission is distance-dependent. The methods of this paper overcome this by partitioning the population into a number of sectors and then attempting to take account of this dependence within each sector, while neglecting that between-sectors. Application to both simulated and real epidemic data sets show that the techniques perform well in comparison with existing approaches. Moreover, the results confirm the validity of likelihood estimates obtained elsewhere using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Continuities in Size of Place Preferences in the United States, 1972–19921

Abstract The directions of net migration and population redistribution in the U.S. have switched from nonmetropolitan deconcentration during the 1970s, to metropolitan concentration during the 1980s, and back to deconcentration once again in the early 1990s. The complex causes of these distribution shifts are thought to involve both structural reconfigurations of economic activities that affect the location of opportunities and residential preferences that are tied more closely to amenities and quality of life considerations. This paper uses comparable data from three representative sample surveys of the U.S. population to update and extend earlier research on the preferential basis of redistribution trends. Our analysis does not support the view that shifts in the direction of residential preferences during 1972–1992 tend to coincide with shifts in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan net migration and population redistribution. Rather, a consistent finding across all three surveys is that most people prefer their current residence type, and those who do not are almost twice as likely to prefer lower rather than higher density settings. These findings support the importance of preferences to explanations of recent population trends, but these preferences are not in isolation from the economic contexts in which they occur.