Informality in a micro economy: Measurement,composition and consequences

This article measures the extent of – and unrecorded income generated by – informal employment in a micro economy characterized by poor governance. Household survey and census data are used to estimate the number of informal workers in Northern Cyprus and analyse the characteristics of informal employment, for the period 2004–11. Informal workers are mostly comprised of citizens with no social security registration, illegally employed immigrants or second‐job holders who have not registered their second jobs. In terms of value added, the estimated size of the informal economy is 9.1 per cent and 12.2 per cent of GNP in 2006 and 2011, respectively.     

Comparison of Six Dose-Response Models for Use with Food-Borne Pathogens

Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose-response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal, log-logistic, exponential, -Poisson and Weibull-Gamma. These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella flexneri, Shigella dysenteriae,Campylobacter jejuni, and Salmonella typhosa, using the method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.     

Incorporating Follow-up Time in M-Estimation for Survival Data

It has been approximately 30 years since D.R. Cox introduced the proportional hazards method to model the relationship between covariates and survival time. However, the proportional hazards model has limited value when the proportionality assumption is violated. Over the years, there have many been many alternative proposals to the proportional hazards regression model for the case of right censored survival data, but to date none have demonstrated widespread acceptance. In general, problems encountered in these methods include their computational algorithms or evaluation of their asymptotic properties. In this work, an estimating equation based on a U-statistic of degree 2 is proposed. It is easy to implement and the U-statistic framework provides a straightforward development of asymptotic inferential theory for the regression parameters.     

Making Sense of “Quality?” — Toward a Review and Critique of Quality Initiatives in Financial Services

This article provides a broad classification and critique of the theoretical and empirical approaches toward quality initiatives. These are the technical managerialist, social managerialist, and critical nonmanagerialist approaches. The technical managerialist approach is based upon the flawed assumption that practice follows policy almost like night follows day. By contrast, focusing on intraorganizational politics and the tensions of hierarchy, social managerialists recognize that outcomes are always a negotiated compromise. A majority of these authors are concerned with rendering quality initiatives more effective for management. In contrast, critical nonmanagerialists refuse to take on uncritically the assumptions and attitudes of management, and are concerned with understanding the forms and content of quality initiatives. The article provides a conceptual framework for guiding and advancing research on quality initiatives, and it offers themes and issues which warrant exploring.     

Who Supports Marketization and Democratization in Post-Communist Romania?

The post-1989 change in former Communist societies in East and Central Europe is generally viewed as a double transition involving both marketization (removal of state hegemony over the economy)anddemocratization (move to a Western-style liberal democracy). Data from a nationwide survey of Romania in 1993 demonstrates that Romanians in fact distinguish two reform dimensions—marketization and democratization—as opposed to a single pro-Westernization dimension. Though Romanians distinguish marketization and democratization conceptually, support for reform in both instances is strongest among the same segments of the population: the young, the better educated, men, and those living in cities. Further analysis reveals that the effects of age, gender, and urban residence (but not education) largely wash out once the effects of risk aversion, individualistic ideology, and personal economic expectations are controlled for. Risk aversion is an especially important mediating variable. Men, the young, and those in cities are more likely to support marketization and democratization in large part because they tend to be less averse to risk.     

Outcome Expectancies for Gambling: Empirical Modeling of a Memory Network in Federal Prison Inmates

Outcome expectancies for gambling were explored in a group of 316 male medium security federal inmates with the multidimensional scaling statistical technique. Sixty-six possible outcomes for gambling were reduced to 16 after a factor analysis determined that 75% of the total variance was accounted for by the first 16 factors (eigenvalues > 0.75). The highest loading item for each factor was utilized in all subsequent analyses. Multidimensional scaling of these 16 items revealed the presence of two primary dimensions (positive-negative and arousing-sedating), corroborating previous research on alcohol outcome expectancies (Rather et al., 1992) and general affective response (Russell, 1980). Significant group (non-gambling, non-problem gambling, possible problem gambling, probable pathological gambling) differences were observed on 12 of the 16 items and on 3 of 4 composite scales (positive expectancies, negative expectancies, arousing expectancies, sedating expectancies).     

AUDIO AND VIDEO COMPUTER-ASSISTED SELF INTERVIEWING: Preliminary Tests of New Technologies for Data Collection

Results are reported from a preliminary study testing a new technology for survey data collection: audio computer-assisted self interviewing. This technology has the theoretical potential of providing privacy (or anonymity) of response equivalent to that of paper self-administered questionnaires (SAQs). In addition, it could offer the advantages common to all computer-assisted methods such as the ability to implement complex questionnaire logic, consistency checking, etc.. In contrast to Video-CASI, Audio-CASI proffers these potential advantages without limiting data collection to the literate segment of the population. In this preliminary study, results obtained using RTI's Audio-CASI system were compared to those for paper SAQs and for Video-CASI. Survey questionnaires asking about drug use, sexual behavior, income, and demographic characteristics were administered to a small sample (N = 40) of subjects of average and below-average reading abilities using each method of data collection. While the small sample size renders many results suggestive rather than definitive, the study did demonstrate that both Audio- and Video-CASI systems work well even with subjects who do not have extensive familiarity with computers. Indeed, respondents preferred the Audio- and Video-CASI to paper SAQs. The computerized systems also eliminated errors in execution of "skip" instructions that occurred when subjects completed paper SAQs. In a number of instances, the computerized systems also appeared to encourage more complete reporting of sensitive behaviors such as use of illicit drugs. Among the two CASI systems, respondents rated Audio-CASI more favorably than Video-CASI in terms of interest, ease of use, and overall preference.     

Managerial prerogatives,employee expectations,and property rights in job security: Institutionalizing the “new equity”

Changes in the structure and provisions of the employment relationship create substantial challenges for the management community. The employer-manager's traditional prerogatives to terminate at will are being eroded in response to changing socioeconomic values that recognize the emergence of an employee's reasonable expectations of job security. The United States lags far behind the international community in protecting these expectations. The authors survey the erosion of the employment-at-will doctrine, and review the concepts of corporate due process and property rights relating to employment. To ensure the institutionalization of this new equity, the authors call on the management community to take the initiative in crafting progressive legislation that strikes a sensible balance between managerial prerogatives and employee expectations of job security.