Finding the best treatment under heavy censoring and hidden bias

Summary.  We analyse male survival duration after hospitalization following an acute myocardial infarction with a large ( N =11024) Finnish data set to find the best performing hospital district (and to disseminate its treatment protocol). This is a multiple-treatment problem with 21 treatments (i.e. 21 hospital districts). The task of choosing the best treatment is difficult owing to heavy right censoring (73%), which makes the usual location measures (the mean and median) unidentified; instead, only lower quantiles are identified. There is also a sample selection issue that only those who made it to a hospital alive are observed (54%); this becomes a problem if we wish to know their potential survival duration after hospitalization, if they had survived to a hospital contrary to the fact. The data set is limited in its covariates—only age is available—but includes the distance to the hospital, which plays an interesting role. Given that only age and distance are observed, it is likely that there are unobserved confounders. To account for them, a sensitivity analysis is conducted following pair matching. All estimators employed point to a clear winner and the sensitivity analysis indicates that the finding is fairly robust.     

跨国人口流动与族群认同——以东南亚的尼泊尔移民为例

通过对缅甸、泰国的尼泊尔移民的田野调查,探讨了跨国人口流动中的族群认同问题。在理论上,运用巴特的族群理论,批判了英美两国人类学传统上视社会和文化为孤立整体的思想,强调社会是一个无序的系统,并且不具备封闭性。而在方法论上,在国内首次阐述了好奇心在人类学田野调查中的重要作用,要求人类学工作者要以具体的人类行为和环境因素为基本研究对象;空间上外延、时间上后延来追溯研究对象的影响因素,同时以现存理论和模型为指导进行研究。     

Muscle pain and coping with working life in Norway: A review

This paper reviews ongoing research initiated by the Norwegian Research Council for Science and Humanities aimed at improving Health and Living Conditions (HEMIL). Attempts to classify muscle pain states are reviewed, and the pathophysiology and psychophysiology of the condition are evaluated. The psychological aspects are emphasized, in particular relationships to coping resources, coping strateges and to what extent the individual feels able to cope with the environment. Also reviewed are multidisciplinary approaches to treatment, aimed at both psychological and physical aspects. Interventions involving physical as well as psychological training seem to have the best effects. The contribution from physical load is moderate, except for static muscle work. There is a growing concern that the response from the welfare society may produce attitudes that are counterproductive for prevention and treatment. Do we over-react and impose disease concepts on regular complaints that may be a part of normal life?.     

Divorce-risk trends in Sweden 1971–1993

The purpose of this paper is to introduce an updated system of annual indexes of divorce risks and to use the system to display trends in divorce risks for Swedish women over the years since 1971. Divorce-risk trends turn out to have been quite different for women at different parities. Trends for women in their first marriage (the majority) are also somewhat different from trends in later marriages. After a spurt in divorces at parity 0 connected with a divorce reform in 1974, divorce risks have been quite stable for women at this parity, but they have increased steadily among married mothers, mostly as an effect of an increasing prevalence of premarital childbearing. Our indexes are produced by an indirect standardization of register data with respect to women's age at marriage, duration of marriage, and order of marriage. We also recommend standardization with respect to an indicator of premarital childbearing, which is particularly important in a population with extensive nonmarital cohabitation.     

When Will the Russians Come? On Post‐Soviet Immigration and Integration in Sweden

The focus of this paper is one of the paradoxes of international migration: the unexpectedly low level of migration between neighbouring countries with large macro‐economic differentials; in this case migration from the former Soviet republics to Sweden. In line with Faist (2000) , one assumption in the study is that the dynamics of international migration are strongly influenced by the emergence of a transnational social space. Based on a database (ASTRID) containing individual information about all residents in Sweden for the period 1986–2003, the study includes an analysis of migration in relation to the transnational social space ‐‐ its bridging and adaptive functions ‐‐ including labour market integration, family situation, intermarriage, population circulation and the spatial clustering of immigrants. The study reveals an over‐representation of female immigrants and a high frequency of intermarriage among women migrants. Moreover, a changing migrant composition over the past decades was found, including a growing number of students, whereas the empirical analyses indicate a rather weak labour market position among immigrants from former Soviet republics. However, the position of recently arrived migrants has been enhanced over time, and migrants who stay for longer periods attain a stronger position on the labour market. The analyses also show an increasing number of highly educated persons among immigrants from the former Soviet republics. Furthermore, migrants from the former Soviet republics who move to Sweden tend to remain rather than return. In addition, the empirical analysis shows only minor tendencies of spatial clustering among the migrants. In sum, the study indicates that the lack of a more developed transnational social space may explain the rather low level of migration but also that the changing mobility patterns could represent an initial phase of a denser transnational social space that may trigger higher migration rates between the former Soviet republics and Sweden in the near future.     

The Distribution of the Record Position and its Applications

This is mainly an expository article on the positions of records in sequences of ordered elements. Such sequences are obtained, for example, when observing and ordering continuous iid random variables. In practice, records are of interest, for example, in meteorology and sports. A k-record is obtained when a new element is placed at position k counted from the top. The sequences of time points, when new k-records occur, are studied by elementary random walk methods. In the last section, it is shown that the time scale can be changed so that the time points of the k-records follow, approximately, a Poisson process.     

Reactive Temperament and Sensitivity to Context in Childcare

Consistent with Biological Sensitivity to Context and Differential Susceptibility hypotheses, this study found that children who, as infants, were more temperamentally reactive were more sensitive to the quality of childcare they experienced as toddlers, but not to the amount of childcare with peers they had experienced since birth. Children with both highly positively and negatively reactive temperaments were more socially integrated when care quality was higher and less integrated when care quality was lower compared with moderately reactive children. Reactive temperament was not found to moderate relations between care quality or care duration and internalizing or externalizing behavior problems. These findings support the need to consider individual differences among children in evaluating the impacts of childcare.     

Lifestyle, harassment at work and self-assessed health of female flight attendants, nurses and teachers

Health-related lifestyle, harassment at work, and self-assessed health of female flight attendants in comparison to that of female nurses and female primary school teachers were surveyed. A higher proportion of flight attendants than nurses or teachers were smokers, 26% vs. 15% and 17% respectively; and consumed alcohol at least once a week, 40% vs. 21% and 16%. Repeated sexual harassment at work was more common among the flight attendants, 31% vs. 8% and 4%; whereas bullying, physical violence and threats were less prevalent among the flight attendants (12%) than among nurses (19%). Flight attendants were on average somewhat taller, but weighed on average less, 63.8 kg vs. 72.4 kg and 72.7 kg respectively. Repeated exposure to sexual harassment, bullying, violence and threats was related to less physical and psychological well-being in all the groups. Teachers scored on average significantly lower than did the flight attendants on general health and physical well-being, while nurses did not.