Testing Serial Correlation in Partially Linear Additive Errors-in-variables Models

This article considers testing serial correlation in partially linear additive errors-in-variables model. Based on the empirical likelihood based approach, a test statistic was proposed, and it was shown to follow asymptotically a chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.     

构建天津滨海新区特色园林文化

2007年5月,天津市第九次党代会明确提出今后五年天津文化建设的方向和目标:充分展现天津的深厚历史文化底蕴、独特自然风貌和现代大都市气息.要求都市园林绿化做到"历史文脉传承,文化内涵丰富,城市个性突出,生态环境优美".     

Closure property of consistently varying random variables based on precise large deviation principles

Let X = {X₁, X₂, …} be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables, and let η be a counting random variable independent of X. Consider randomly stopped sum S_η = ∑^η_{k = 1}X_k and random maximum S_(η) ? max?{S₀, …, S_η}. Assuming that each X_k belongs to the class of consistently varying distributions, on the basis of the well-known precise large deviation principles, we prove that the distributions of S_η and S_(η) belong to the same class under some mild conditions. Our approach is new and the obtained results are further studies of Kizinevi?, Sprindys, and ?iaulys (2016) and Andrulyt?, Manstavi?ius, and ?iaulys (2017).     

China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy

China implemented the two-child policy in 2016, however, potential impacts of this new policy on its population reality have not been adequately understood. Using population census data and 1% population sampling data during the period of 1982–2015, this study develops a fertility simulation model to explore the effects of the two-child policy on women’s total fertility rate, and employs Cohort Component Method in population projections to examine China’s demographic future with different fertility regimes. The fertility simulation results reveal that the two-child policy will make significantly positive effects on China’s total fertility rate through increasing second births, leading to a sharp but temporary increase in the first 5 years after the implementation of the new policy. In addition, population projections using simulated total fertility rates show that the Chinese population would reach its peak value around the middle 2020s and be faced with the reduction of labor force supply and rapid aging process, featured with remarkable increases in both size and share of the elderly population. The findings suggest that the two-child policy would undoubtedly affect China’s fertility rates and demographic future; however, the effects are mild and temporary.

     

产城融合发展与城镇化效率提升的互动机制及实现途径

产城融合发展与城镇化效率提升作为新型城镇化进程中的重要问题备受关注,而如何实现二者的互动则更为重要,这关系未来我国城镇化整体的运行质量。基于此,笔者通过对产城融合发展与城镇化效率提升的互动机制进行诠释,从有产无城与城镇化高成本并存、有城无产与城镇化低收益并存、产城割裂与城镇化低效率并存三大层面分析了产城融合发展与城镇化效率提升相互影响中的突出问题,并据此提出加大产业结构转型升级,增强城镇化经济力,完善城镇配套功能,鼓励发展新兴产业及强化城镇化中的市场化建设等实现产城融合发展与城镇化效率提升的互动实现途径。     

就地城镇化发展与农民就业转型出路研究——以天津宝坻水苑小区为例

作为新型城镇化的发展模式之一,就地城镇化是促进乡村振兴、推动城乡一体化发展的重要途径。为了更好地了解就地城镇化的实践效果以及农民的就业转型出路,以宝坻周良水苑小区作为研究对象,从就业、收入和生活等多角度深入分析就地城镇化发展中农民就业转型的路径、去向、行业分布、单位类型、收入现状以及影响因素等,以期为探索新型城镇化发展与乡村振兴进程中的相关问题提供经验借鉴。     

当前西藏社会阶层分化对高等教育机会获得的影晌初探

不同社会阶层,因其所拥有的经济资源、文化资源和组织资源的差异,对高等教育入学机会的获得产生不同的影响.为此,文章正确认识当前西藏高等教育入学机会问题,并从理论和实践层面提出一些有益对策.     

方法论意义上的《中国之欧洲》--兼及比较诗学研究的一种启示

艾田蒲（ Rene Etiemble）的比较文化巨著《中国之欧洲》具有独特的方法论体系。在语言层面上，这部著作表现出形象性与思辨性的高度统一；逻辑层面上则以归谬法的使用为特色；论述策略上忠实体现了作者提出的“比较诗学”的特性---历史考证与审美思考的结合；结构层面上则倾向于“起-承-转-合”的完整运思。这一独特的方法论体系或许可以为比较诗学的研究提供一种启示：既然从意识层面入手解决各类“中心主义”、民族主义困难重重，从学理层面进行的辨析又常常陷入曲高和寡的窘境，那么，以方法的运作清除偏见所赖以滋生的土壤，或许可以为我们带来一种真正清醒、公正而又不失美感的比较诗学。     

国外农民社会养老保险制度的发展及其启示

许多发达国家和部分发展中国家都为农民建立了社会养老保险保障制度 ,我国也在积极致力于这一制度的建设。本文在具体介绍德国、法国、加拿大的农民社会养老保险制度的背景、制度建设和发展以及具体政策和操作的基础上 ,着重探讨了对我国建立农村社会养老保险制度的借鉴意义