国家级电视媒体在维吾尔族观众中影响力研究

中央电视台作为我国唯一真正实现了全国覆盖的国家级电视媒体,在维吾尔族观众中影响力的大小,是一个与民族团结和社会和谐密切相关的问题。通过对央视在维吾尔族观众中影响力情况的问卷调查和小组访谈,可以看出,整体上央视的影响力颇为强劲,可堪使命,但也存在一些潜在的问题,需要在以后的工作中逐步解决。     

校企合作构建第二课堂的实施效果分析及评价——基于圣奥班(家具设计专业)毕业生跟踪问卷的调查

南京林业大学与浙江圣奥(木业)集团联合创建的“圣奥班”是校企合作联合培养创新型家具设计工程专业人才的成功平台之一.基于圣奥班毕业生的问卷调查,对学生进班动机与目标定位、比较优势、获得的帮助、专业能力提升,以及今后办班建议等方面内容进行了分析.统计结果表明,学校和企业共同搭建的圣奥班平台对学生创新意识,专业能力、就业竞争力等诸多方面都有显著的提升.     

A robust and efficient estimation method for nonparametric models with jump points

Nonparametric models with jump points have been considered by many researchers. However, most existing methods based on least squares or likelihood are sensitive when there are outliers or the error distribution is heavy tailed. In this article, a local piecewise-modal method is proposed to estimate the regression function with jump points in nonparametric models, and a piecewise-modal EM algorithm is introduced to estimate the proposed estimator. Under some regular conditions, the large-sample theory is established for the proposed estimators. Several simulations are presented to evaluate the performances of the proposed method, which shows that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator in the presence of outliers or heavy tail error distribution. What is more, the proposed procedure is asymptotically equivalent to the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator under the assumption that the error distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The proposed method is further illustrated via the sea-level pressures.     

A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.     

Comparison of leadership styles in Confucian Asian countries

The purpose of this study was to examine the overall impact of four leadership styles (charismatic, directive, participative, and supportive) in four Confucian Asian countries, China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, by reviewing recent studies conducted in those countries. By reviewing 38 studies selected from 430 studies published between 2005 and 2016, we identify the impact of the four leadership styles in the four Asian countries. We start with the research question and purpose, and then propose criteria for selecting the relevant recent studies followed by a review of cultural heritage and its influence on leadership in the four Asian countries. We summarize and review the studies and, finally, discuss the theoretical and practical contributions of this study.     

“破冰”还是“破茧”:中国文学走出去——顾彬教授与方汉文教授的对话

中国文学走出去面临"破冰"1与"破茧"2的双重挑战。对话双方从中国现当代小说与古典小说传统之间因时代变迁所形成的非传统性、传统小说与西方小说艺术表达与再现方式的不同之处、如何从世界文学史角度来评价中国小说诗歌价值等问题交流看法。也无可避免地涉及到当代中国作家的评价,双方观点同异并存,既有交锋又有融合,体现了不同文化观念在这一话题评价的对话性,文中充满了直率的评价,目标是为了中国文学的世界化,而不是褒贬人物。     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

菲利普斯曲线在中国的有效性研究

从基本的菲利普斯曲线理论出发,提出了新的适应性预期模型,并以此为基础建立附加预期的菲利普斯曲线方程,进而估计出我国近年来的自然失业率水平,由此证明了菲利普斯曲线在我国的有效性,并描述了预期因素对实际通货膨胀水平的影响。最后结合实证分析结果提出解决我国通货膨胀和失业问题的建议,如保证货币政策的连贯性、加强信息披露、解决结构性失业问题等。