寇永祥：安保中的武林高手

提前5分钟,他就已经在沈阳市府广场附近某大型商场负1层,他的工作区入口处等着我们。寇永祥,眼前的这位八卦掌、形意拳正宗传人。身材高大,衣着干练,发型清爽。很难看出,这就是10年前那位打败29国武林高手、声震香江的国际武术大赛冠浑。他现在的身份,是这家商场的安保部负责人,管理着180多人。业务24小时覆盖80万平方米的区域,还要协调与其他部门的业务交叉。在安保领域,他可以称得上行家里手。     

Public Access to Government Information in the Digital Age: Findings from China

The openness of government information is an unavoidable issue in the digital age. The Chinese government makes great effort to publish administrative information and seek advice on good governance from the general public, but is nonetheless unable to meet citizens’ legitimate demands for the right to know and participate. This study analyzes this contradiction from four angles: the driving force, the type of information, the access platform, and the annual examination and supervision system for government information disclosure. The findings showed that (a) netizens’ heavy pressure rather than Chinese authorities’ strong leadership pushes forward the disclosure of government information; (b) administrative information concerning the public agenda rather than the policy agenda best meets the needs of the general public; (c) commercial Weibo websites are a more satisfactory channel than official government websites for practical requests; and (d) as a unique institutional arrangement for examination and supervision, the annual report on government information disclosure should be standardized.     

Asymptotic Comparison Between Constant-stress Testing and Step-stress Testing for Type-I Censored Data from Exponential Distribution

By running the life tests at higher stress levels than normal operating conditions, accelerated life testing quickly yields information on the lifetime distribution of a test unit. The lifetime at the design stress is then estimated through extrapolation using a regression model. In constant-stress testing, a unit is tested at a fixed stress level until failure or the termination time point of the test, while step-stress testing allows the experimenter to gradually increase the stress levels at some pre-fixed time points during the test. In this article, the optimal k-level constant-stress and step-stress accelerated life tests are compared for the exponential failure data under Type-I censoring. The objective is to quantify the advantage of using the step-stress testing relative to the constant-stress one. A log-linear relationship between the mean lifetime parameter and stress level is assumed and the cumulative exposure model holds for the effect of changing stress in step-stress testing. The optimal design point is then determined under C-optimality, D-optimality, and A-optimality criteria. The efficiency of step-stress testing compared to constant-stress testing is discussed in terms of the ratio of optimal objective functions based on the information matrix.     

住房需求与城镇居民消费

住房不仅兼有消费和投资功能,而且还是家庭社会地位的象征。对社会地位的关注会促使人们把更多的资源从非地位性商品转向地位性商品,从而扭曲资源配置。本文首次基于地位寻求理论,利用CHFS数据对中国城市家庭的住房需求行为和消费行为进行了实证分析。结果表明：1.中国城市家庭的住房具有明显的地位特征,家庭居住面积不断扩大与地位攀比有关。2.无论是中低收入家庭还是高收入家庭,住房面积扩大对消费的挤出效应都是显著的。而房价上涨仅抑制了中低收入家庭的消费,对高收入家庭没有显著影响。     

“大数据”背景下利用扫描数据编制中国CPI问题研究

扫描数据为政府统计源头数据信息化改革与宏观经济测度提供了新的技术范式。基于对世界各国利用扫描数据编制CPI的现状进行梳理研究,并针对中国扫描数据的现状和政府价格统计的特点,提出了一种利用扫描数据编制中国CPI的思路,力图为基于"大数据"的政府统计源头数据信息化改革提供理论和实践参考。     

Marginal semiparametric multivariate accelerated failure time model with generalized estimating equations

The semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) model is not as widely used as the Cox relative risk model due to computational difficulties. Recent developments in least squares estimation and induced smoothing estimating equations for censored data provide promising tools to make the AFT models more attractive in practice. For multivariate AFT models, we propose a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, extending the GEE to censored data. The consistency of the regression coefficient estimator is robust to misspecification of working covariance, and the efficiency is higher when the working covariance structure is closer to the truth. The marginal error distributions and regression coefficients are allowed to be unique for each margin or partially shared across margins as needed. The initial estimator is a rank-based estimator with Gehan’s weight, but obtained from an induced smoothing approach with computational ease. The resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, with variance estimated through a multiplier resampling method. In a large scale simulation study, our estimator was up to three times as efficient as the estimateor that ignores the within-cluster dependence, especially when the within-cluster dependence was strong. The methods were applied to the bivariate failure times data from a diabetic retinopathy study.     

A survey of functional principal component analysis

Advances in data collection and storage have tremendously increased the presence of functional data, whose graphical representations are curves, images or shapes. As a new area of statistics, functional data analysis extends existing methodologies and theories from the realms of functional analysis, generalized linear model, multivariate data analysis, nonparametric statistics, regression models and many others. From both methodological and practical viewpoints, this paper provides a review of functional principal component analysis, and its use in explanatory analysis, modeling and forecasting, and classification of functional data.     

《东海岛屿文化与民俗》序论

《东海岛屿文化与民俗》是继《吴越地区民间信仰民俗》和《稻作文化与江南民俗》之后的关于吴越地区民俗文化的系列研究成果。由于海岛的独特性,该课题在调查方法上,突破了以往民俗学的"投入式调查"和"参与式调查"模式,而探索到了第三种调查方式,即以当地土生土长的文化人来调查和描述本地的民俗文化,实践证明,这种方式也是行之有效的。民俗学在理论上还存在着让人探索的广泛空间,以马克思主义的辩证唯物论和唯物辩证法为方法论来建立中国的民俗学学派,有着崭新的发展前景。     

论我国企业债券市场发展滞后的供求基础

我国企业债券市场发展滞后是多种因素综合作用的结果,总体表现为供给不足、需求无法满足、市场体系不完善、相关制度和机构不健全、缺乏创新.影响我国企业债券市场发债滞后的供给和需求最根本的原因在于体制性制约、政府在引导投资流向上计划经济色彩过浓,没有随着经济形式的变化进行相应的改革和创新.     

校园·文化·人文--浅谈天津科技大学校园规划

知识经济时代的根本特征就是以知识作为社会发展的基本推动力,社会整体文化发展,是引发大学校园发展的根本原因.近年来,随着天津市经济社会的发展和城市建设的飞跃,大学校园建设方兴未艾,校园面貌日新月异.