A vector of quarters representation for bivariate time series

In this paper it is shown that several models for a bivariate nonstationary quarterly time series are nested in a vector autoregression with cointegration restrictions for the eight annual series of quarterly observations. Or, the Granger Representation Theorem is extended to incorporate, e.g., seasonal and periodic cointegration.     

Consistent Probabilistic Social Choice

Two fundamental axioms in social choice theory are consistency with respect to a variable electorate and consistency with respect to components of similar alternatives. In the context of traditional non‐probabilistic social choice, these axioms are incompatible with each other. We show that in the context of probabilistic social choice, these axioms uniquely characterize a function proposed by Fishburn (1984). Fishburn's function returns so‐called maximal lotteries, that is, lotteries that correspond to optimal mixed strategies in the symmetric zero‐sum game induced by the pairwise majority margins. Maximal lotteries are guaranteed to exist due to von Neumann's Minimax Theorem, are almost always unique, and can be efficiently computed using linear programming.     

从胡文化“汉化”看生态环境的迁移对文化转型的影响

不同文化特质的形成 ,除受政治经济影响外 ,还受特定生态环境的制约。胡汉两大文化体系的差异 ,在很大程度上就是不同生态环境作用的结果。与此相应 ,文化的发展一旦脱离了与自身相适应的环境 ,就势必要出现势能上的劣势 ,并逐渐与异地文化相溶     

Current and Future Problems of Capital Accumulation in the Chinese Pension System

The decree establishing a uniform system of basic pensions for employees in municipal and private enterprises, published by the State Council on 16 July 1997, reflects the Chinese Government's ultimate choice in favour of a partly private funded scheme to cover future pension needs. This article examines the reasons which led to this choice and asks how easy or otherwise it will be to find the capital to finance it. The authors believe that the partly private scheme is more advantageous than other methods and is right for China. Many issues, however, remain the focus of lively debate. In particular, a realistic coordination of individual and group accumulation is needed in order to avoid shortfalls in capital formation and the dangers of inadequate benefit provision. To safeguard the subsistence needs of former workers in state-owned enterprises, a system of equalization at national level is needed, and problems continue over how future pension insurance funds should best be managed.     

Finding common ground: how superdiversity is unsettling social work education

For social work education in the Netherlands, the rapid transition towards superdiversity means that its capacity to adapt to this new reality and to adjust to diverse students’ backgrounds is fiercely challenged. The key aim of this article is to discuss how social work educators are dealing with the unsettling challenges of increasing diversity, based on the research outcomes of an explorative study amongst Turkish–Dutch and Moroccan–Dutch female professionals. Two different groups of educators were asked to comment on the outcomes of this study. One of the dilemmas for educators is to determine what can be considered supportive and inclusive and as reducing inequality in education. The authors used two key theoretical concepts, ‘superdiversity’ and ‘the capability approach’. These theoretical perspectives were used to deconstruct the rather massive concepts of diversity and social justice, by emphasising contextual approaches. Both perspectives stress the urgent need to involve students as ‘active agents of change’, by building a social work community to stimulate and facilitate an on-going dialogue. To successfully fulfil a pivotal role in the upward mobility or emancipation of ethnic minority students, social work education needs to be adjusted to accommodate diverse student groups.     

Probabilistic solutions to ordinary differential equations as nonlinear Bayesian filtering: a new perspective

Statistics and Computing - We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with nonlinear...     

Market hours,household work,child care,and wage rates of partners: an empirical analysis

The aim of this paper is to provide new evidence on the effect of partners’ wages on partners’ allocation of time. Earlier studies concluded that wage rates are an important determinant of partners’ hours of market and non-market work and also that house work may lower married women’s wage rates. However, the bulk of earlier literature in this area failed to account for the endogeneity of wages or the simultaneity of partners’ time allocation choices. Here we take a reduced form approach and specify a ten simultaneous equations model of wage rates, employment and hours of market work, house work and childcare of parents. Non-participants are included in the model. We exploit a rich time use dataset for France to estimate the model. We find that the own wage affects positively own market hours and negatively own house work and childcare hours. The wage of the father has a significantly negative effect on the mother’s market hours while her wage rate has a significantly positive effect on his house work hours.     

Walking in the shoes of others: Experimental testing of dual-interest and empathy in environmental choice

This paper further tests dual interest theory and the metaeconomics approach to environmental choice, recognizing a possible role for empathy–sympathy (the basis for an internalized, shared other-interest) in tempering and conditioning the more fundamental tendency to pursue self-interest. To test, we focus on rivers flowing through agricultural areas carrying sediments, chemicals, and fertilizers which are making their way into downstream rivers and lakes. We conduct a framed laboratory experiment modeling this problem: farmers decide on the usage of conservation technology to lessen impacts on the water quality (i.e. on the commons, the capacity to absorb these wastes) in downstream areas, which is more costly than the alternative intensive technology. The results confirm our hypotheses, demonstrating that Upstream Farmers who practice conservation are tempering profit maximization with empathy-based, environmentally conscious behavior. Such behavior better serves the farmers’ own-interest, and also helps Downstream Water Users. Environmental economics models need to explicitly include empathy–sympathy and the moral–ethical context it produces, providing a more scientific basis for conservation policy and programs.     

Co-variation in time between near-far accommodation of the lens and trapezius muscle activity

Visual strain and discomfort may contribute to the generation of work-related musculoskeletal disorders among e.g. computer workers. A positive correlation on a group level between eye-lens accommodation and trapezius muscle activity has been reported. In this study we investigated the possibility of a direct, fast, connection between lens accommodation and trapezius muscles activity. The subjects focused alternately on Near and Far targets, with a mean switch time of 5 s, through four different lenses. The cross-correlation, R(tau) was computed, between the time signals of accommodation and electromyography (EMG) from 23 subjects. In the overall mean R(tau) of 736 curves, a small but significant correlation peak (0.019) with a delay (of the EMG signal) of about 0.3 s, revealed a small common component in the two signals. Among the lenses, the positive lens (3.5 D), showed the highest correlation peak (0.040). The correlation may be caused by a direct "hard-wired" connection between the ciliary and trapezius muscles. But it could also be caused indirectly by the subject's need for a more stable head in a more demanding visual task. The latter is supported by the result that the correlation was the highest in the positive lens condition. The present correlation is however weak and it has probably a low practical importance.