The Brazilian pension model: The pending agenda

To achieve national goals defined by the 1988 Brazilian Federal Constitution, cash benefits alone are insufficient in the absence of more robust social services to reduce inequalities and improve social cohesion. The Constitution, albeit of national importance and international significance, has not addressed many institutional and administrative weaknesses in the design of the national pension system. Although coverage has been increased and inequality reduced, these measures are not sufficient. Brazil's ambitions to further develop social policies (and, indeed, to live up to its accorded international status as a social policy leader) may be constrained by an over‐reliance on conditional cash transfers such as those provided under the Bolsa Família programme. Brazil faces a major political‐economy challenge in addressing all these issues because the policy reform process is difficult, and, more importantly, because of the embedded role of vested interests. Moreover, Brazil must tackle these issues in the face of growing fiscal pressures, which could weaken the current political legitimacy of social policy and undermine important recent successes.     

Negative binomial time series models based on expectation thinning operators

The study of count data time series has been active in the past decade, mainly in theory and model construction. There are different ways to construct time series models with a geometric autocorrelation function, and a given univariate margin such as negative binomial. In this paper, we investigate negative binomial time series models based on the binomial thinning and two other expectation thinning operators, and show how they differ in conditional variance or heteroscedasticity. Since the model construction is in terms of probability generating functions, typically, the relevant conditional probability mass functions do not have explicit forms. In order to do simulations, likelihood inference, graphical diagnostics and prediction, we use a numerical method for inversion of characteristic functions. We illustrate the numerical methods and compare the various negative binomial time series models for a real data example.     

Tail Behavior of the Failure Rate Functions of Mixtures

The tail behavior of the failure rate of mixtures of lifetime distributions is studied. A typical result is that if the failure rate of the strongest component of the mixture decreases to a limit, then the failure rate of the mixture decreases to the same limit. For a class of distributions containing the gamma distributions this result can be improved in the sense that the behavior of the failure rate of the mixture asymptotically mirrors that of the strongest component in whether it decreases or increases to a limit. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Electronic Journal Holdings Data Usage: Results of a Survey

Results of the CONSER Publication Pattern Initiative, Task Force to Explore the Needs and Uses for Holdings and Pattern Data for Electronic Journals survey, are presented. Following the survey data, two information professionals react with contrasting views on the usefulness and effectiveness of providing detailed e-journal holdings information to the end user. Serials Review 2003; 29:295–301.     

Unequal at the starting line: Creating participatory inequalities across generations and among groups

We investigate how inequalities in political participation are shaped across generations by considering the influence of family background-in particular, parents' education and political involvement-on political participation. We pursue this issue, first, for individuals, investigating the effects of parental characteristics on the participatory profile of their offspring. Then, we use what we have learned to understand how group differences in political participation-between women and men and among Latinos, African Americans, and Anglo Whites-are rooted in the legacy of class and political background and in experiences throughout the life cycle. They are co-authors of The Private Roots of Public Action: Gender, Equality, and Political Participation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001) which was the co-writer of the Victoria Schuck Award of the American Political Science Association for the best book on gender and politics of its year.     

Safety and Aircraft Maintenance: A Moral Evaluation

In this article I will discuss the construction of safety in high reliability organizations. This construction is then evaluated from a moral point of view. I will argue that accidents happening to high reliability organizations make clear that we have to reconceptualize our notion of moral responsibility. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.