Book reviews

Distributed Cognitions: Psychological and Educational Considerations. Gavriel Salomon (Ed.), Cambridge & New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993. 275 pages, $49.95.

The Computer as Medium. Peter Bøgh Andersen, Berit Holmqvist, & Jens F. Jensen (Eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 495 pages. $54.95.     

Local linear regression with adaptive orthogonal fitting for the wind power application

Short-term forecasting of wind generation requires a model of the function for the conversion of meteorological variables (mainly wind speed) to power production. Such a power curve is nonlinear and bounded, in addition to being nonstationary. Local linear regression is an appealing nonparametric approach for power curve estimation, for which the model coefficients can be tracked with recursive Least Squares (LS) methods. This may lead to an inaccurate estimate of the true power curve, owing to the assumption that a noise component is present on the response variable axis only. Therefore, this assumption is relaxed here, by describing a local linear regression with orthogonal fit. Local linear coefficients are defined as those which minimize a weighted Total Least Squares (TLS) criterion. An adaptive estimation method is introduced in order to accommodate nonstationarity. This has the additional benefit of lowering the computational costs of updating local coefficients every time new observations become available. The estimation method is based on tracking the left-most eigenvector of the augmented covariance matrix. A robustification of the estimation method is also proposed. Simulations on semi-artificial datasets (for which the true power curve is available) underline the properties of the proposed regression and related estimation methods. An important result is the significantly higher ability of local polynomial regression with orthogonal fit to accurately approximate the target regression, even though it may hardly be visible when calculating error criteria against corrupted data.     

The American dream: who else but the young can revive it?

ABSTRACT

Many in the mainstream see the rise of populism and the victory of Donald J. Trump as a minor, transient, disturbance of the balance between stability and pluralism in liberal democracy, caused by a temporary economic setback promoting a cultural backlash in the shape of an emotionally driven nativism, traditionalism and anti-politics. For them, it will disappear again as soon as the economy recovers and progressive, reasonable and multicultural, post-materialist values take charge of democracy again. In contrast, I argue that populism constitutes a serious threat to, perhaps the end of, American democracy as we know it, with its dream of creating a viable coupling between outward-looking progressivists and inward-looking traditionalists. The situation calls for the young to intervene and reinvigorate democracy. They have been nudged by neoliberals to express themselves and seek success above all else, and they feel in their everyday life the kind of anxiety and fear of failures that this can create. Consequently, they have invented new, flatter, less organized and more personalized ways of engaging, identifying and pursuing common concerns online and offline. This carries the germ of a new connective democracy breaking with both neoliberalism and populism in order to reboot the American dream.     

Depression and exercise in elderly men and women: findings from the Swedish national study on aging and care

This study investigated the relationship between light and strenuous exercise and depression, as well as gender differences in this relationship, in a representative sample of 860 elderly Swedish suburb-dwelling men and women in age cohorts from 60 to 96 years, drawn from among participants in the Swedish National Aging and Care study. The relationship between depression and self-reported changes in exercise status over time was also examined. Exercise activities were measured with four survey questions, and depression, with the Montgomery Asberg Depression Rating Scale. The inactive elderly had higher depression scores than more active individuals, both in terms of light and strenuous exercise. The continuously active group had lower depression scores than both continuously inactive individuals and individuals reporting a shift from activity to inactivity during the preceding year. Light exercise had a somewhat stronger effect on depression for women.     

The impact of different fit dimensions on spillover effects in brand alliances

Brand alliances represent a popular business strategy in many industries, because firms hope to evoke positive consumer evaluations of both the alliance’s product and the partner brands. However, extant research offers mixed findings regarding the effects of a brand alliance on its partner brands (i.e., spillover effects). In response, this study separates spillover effects into the effects of the alliance product on the partner brands (brand alliance effects) and the effects between partner brands (brand contrast effects), while also noting the potential moderating impact of perceived attitude- and product-based fit between partner brands on resulting spillover effects. Two experimental studies consistently reveal the existence of brand contrast effects; furthermore, the partner brand’s attitude-based fit reduces undesired brand contrast effects and positively moderates spillover effects in brand alliances, whereas product-based fit does not. Therefore, a third study identifies relevant drivers of partner brand’s attitude-based fit for different brand alliances (i.e., co-branding, ingredient branding, and joint advertising). The findings have notable implications for the design and management of brand alliances.     

‘We the People’ versus ‘We the Heads of States’: the debate on the democratic deficit of the European Union

The Eurozone crisis has rekindled the debate on the democratic deficit of the European Union (EU). In this paper, the debate is reconsidered by contrasting the modus vivendi of ‘We the People’ in the USA with the modus vivendi of ‘We the Heads of States’ in the EU. It is demonstrated that many of the solutions to the alleged democratic deficit focus on how more voice can be given to ‘We the People’ on the input side, but that this goes against the functional logic of the EU system, thereby undermining its ability to govern. Instead, we argue that more attention should be given to how to increase output legitimacy, and a number of proposals are put forward. Such a reshuffling of the analytical focus is the best way forward to escape the current impasse in the debate on how to ‘fix’ democracy in the EU.     

System Dynamics as a Structural Theory in Operations Management

The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of (1) system dynamics as a structural theory for operations management and (2) system dynamics models as content theories in operations management. The key findings are that, although feedback loops, accumulation processes, and delays exist and are widespread in operations management, often these phenomena are ignored completely or not considered appropriately. Hence, it is reasoned why system dynamics is well suited as an approach for many operations management studies, and it is shown how system dynamics theory can be used to explain, analyze, and understand such phenomena in operations management. The discussion is based on a literature review and on conceptual considerations, with examples of operations management studies based on system dynamics. Implications of using this theory include the necessary re‐framing of some operations management issues and the extension of empirical studies by dynamic modeling and simulation. The value of the paper lies in the conceptualization of the link between system dynamics and operations management, which is discussed on the level of theory.     

Identifying Social Trust in Cross-Country Analysis: Do We Really Measure the Same?

Many see trust as an important social resource for the welfare of individuals as well as nations. It is therefore important to be able to identify trust and explain its sources. Cross-country survey analysis has been an important tool in this respect, and often one single variable is used to identify social trust understood as trust in strangers, namely: “Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can’t be too careful in dealing with people?” The question, however, is whether this variable captures the meaning of social trust equally well in all countries. This is investigated by comparing different measurements of trust across five clusters of countries in all parts of the world. The analysis shows that there are considerable problems associated with the use of the variable of “most can be trusted” as an indicator of trust in strangers, both in terms of strangers understood as “people you meet for the first time” and in terms of strangers understood as people of a different nationality and religion. These results question the validity of previous investigations of social trust based on international survey material. The analysis furthermore reveals that a new survey question about trust in people one is meeting for the first time is better suited as indicator of social trust in comparative analysis.     

Exploring the Conceptual Foundation of Continuity Management in the Context of Societal Safety

Public and private actors with critical roles for ensuring societal safety need to work proactively to reduce risks and vulnerabilities. Traditionally, risk management activities have often been performed in order to ensure continuous functioning of key societal services. Recently, however, business continuity management (BCM), and its analytical subcomponent business impact assessment (BIA), has been introduced and used more extensively by both the private and public sector in order to increase the robustness and resilience of critical infrastructures and societal functions and services. BCM was originally developed in the business sector but has received a broader use during the last decade. Yet, BCM/BIA has gained limited attention in the scientific literature—especially when it comes to clarifying and developing its conceptual basis. First, this article examines and discusses the conceptual foundation of BCM concepts, including practical challenges of applying the concepts. Based on recent conceptual developments from the field of risk management, a developed conceptualization is suggested. Second, the article discusses challenges that arise when applying BCM in the societal safety area and provides some recommendations aiming to improve the clarity and quality of applications. Third, the article provides suggestions of how to integrate the overlapping approaches of BIA and risk assessment in order to improve efficiency and effectiveness of proactive, analytic processes. We hope that the article can stimulate a critical discussion about the key concepts of BCM, their wider use in societal safety, and their connection to other concepts and activities such as risk assessment.