Stellungnahmen zum Fall Andrej H.

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Implementation of a demographic and contraceptive surveillance system in four counties in north China

This paper details efforts to implement a demographic and contraceptive surveillance system in four counties in North China. These counties are taking part in a large-scale field experiment involving the introduction of new contraceptives, greater choice in the use of contraceptives, and better training of family planning personnel. To evaluate the impact of these changes, a system of detailed, individual-level records are being kept in the 24 townships taking part in the project. We discuss the interaction between data collection and policy implementation - its general forms, its manifestations in modern China, and its relevance for the current project. We describe the system that we are implementing - what the old system looked like, and how we have tried to improve it. We evaluate the system's functioning over three years, based on field observations and preliminary data from one of the project's four counties. We conclude that there has been progress in the timely accumulation of standardized data; but there remains an antinomy whereby, past a point, an emphasis on data quality has the effect of sensitizing those responsible for recording data to the problematic nature of such data, thereby weakening accuracy. Many of the issues encountered in implementing the new system are relevant to the larger issues of (a) correct interpretation of data from China, and (b) creating a reasonable climate for change in the family planning system.     

A decomposition of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratios of blacks and whites in the united states, 1960–1992*

We use a method of standardization and decomposition developed by Das Gupta to update Smith and Cutright’s analysis of demographic factors responsible for increases in the nonmarital fertility ratio (illegitimacy ratio) among blacks and whites in the United States. We create standardized rates for each year between 1960 and 1992, and consistent, exhaustive decompositions of the nonmarital fertility ratio for any interval during this period in terms of four components: (1) the age distribution of women of reproductive age, (2) the proportion of women unmarried at each age, (3) the age-specific birth rates of married women, and (4) the age-specific birth rates of unmarried women. Nonmarital fertility ratios are much higher among blacks than among whites, but both increased monotonically from 1960 to 1992. During the last 10 years, each increased by nearly 10 percentage points. Increases in the proportion of women not married, at all ages, account for the preponderance of the increase in black nonmarital fertility ratios. Increasing rates of unmarried childbearing, however, have played a role during the most recent decade (1983–1992). For whites, from 1960 until 1975, declines in marital fertility were most important in producing increases in the proportion of children born out of wedlock. Since then, these proportions have increased primarily because of increases in unmarried women s birth rates, and secondarily because of declines in the proportion of women who are married. These trends are consistent with arguments that emphasize declining economic incentives to marry and reduced access to, and acceptability of, abortion.     

Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences?

Has China’s strict one-child policy been successful in changing fertility preferences? Using linked data from surveys conducted in four counties of northern China in 1991 and 1994, we compare reproductive behavior against prior fertility preferences and show when and where women change from wanting to not wanting more children. The acceptance of policy-sanctioned family size follows a development gradient and reflects the degree of enforcement. High acceptance occurs in the most urban, industrialized county and in the county with the most rigid family planning policy. Acceptance is weaker among women living in the poorest county and in the county where enforcement is most lenient.     

Medicine and the paradigm of Neo-pragmatism a contribution to medical decision theory

Summary The epistemological paradigm of Systematic Neo-Pragmatism, supported by the author, is closely connected with the (semiotic-) pragmatical notion of model. The latter is expounded, and the models in medicine are characterised on the basis of flow charts and correlation-diagrams of the process of diagnosis. Furthermore, the neo-pragmatic concept of medicine is developed and it is shown how medicine is to be defined as a science of action. Finally, a holistic notion of reality in medicine is presented for which the interaction of subject and object as well as the unity of knowledge and action is important.This article is the revised version of a lecture delivered by the author at a symposium held at the Medizinische Universitätsklinik (university hospital), Cologne, 1 October 1982. The lecture has been published in German in Modelle und Realitäten in der Medizin, ed. R. Gross (Stuttgart-New York: Schattauer, 1983, pp. 7–22). For the present publication, the material has been brought up to date. I wish to thank Professor Gross, the editor of Modelle und Realitäten and the publishing house of Schattauer for their kind permission to reprint translated passages from this volume.     

On testing for causality in variance between two multivariate time series

Verifying the existence of a relationship between two multivariate time series represents an important consideration. In this article, the procedure developed by Cheung and Ng [A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices, J. Econom. 72 (1996), pp. 33–48] designed to test causality in variance for univariate time series is generalized in several directions. A first approach proposes test statistics based on residual cross-covariance matrices of squared (standardized) residuals and cross products of (standardized) residuals. In a second approach, transformed residuals are defined for each residual vector time series, and test statistics are constructed based on the cross-correlations of these transformed residuals. Test statistics at individual lags and portmanteau-type test statistics are developed. Conditions are given under which the new test statistics converge in distribution towards chi-square distributions. The proposed methodology can be used to determine the directions of causality in variance, and appropriate test statistics are presented. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the new test statistics offer satisfactory empirical properties. An application with two bivariate financial time series illustrates the methods.     

Jury size and jury verdicts

The analysis of jury size and jury verdicts in criminal m a t t e r s now has along , though interrupted , history . Work In this subject in the 18th and 19th centuries by Condorcet arid Laplace is discussed and the Poisson model of the 1830's is highighted . The latter is modified t o analyze the America1 jury experience of the 20th century. Recent U. S. Supreme Court decis on sin the 1970's on jury size and jury decisiol - making have created a resurgence of interest especially on a comparison of six member and twelve member juries . Some comparisons of size in terms of probabilities of errors invericts are presented.