First German register based census in 2011

Summary The last censuses in Germany were accomplished in 1987 (former federal states) and 1981 (new federal states), respectively. Germany was the only country which did not participate in the EU-wide census in 2000. A traditional census was not feasible on political scale due to high costs and low acceptance by the population. Complete, precise and actual statistical registers as a condition for a register based census, are non-existent in Germany. Official statisticians developed a model for a register based census with interviewer-based surveys kept to a minimum. As the basic conditions were not favourable the model became very complex and many methods and procedures had to be developed for the special case of German registers. Core model elements were tested in a census test, such as quality of registers (e. g. municipal population registers, registers of the federal labour agency) and practicability of procedures (e. g. merging of registers, household generation). The test result was that a register based census is possible but much development work still has to be done, as the registers do not have an acceptable quality yet. Additional interviewer based surveys will be necessary for correction of errors of the register and survey of additional variables. This is also true if measures to improve municipal population registers, e. g. a feedback procedure and a nationwide tax number are taken into account. So these measures will not substitute the additional interviewer based surveys. Provided that the essential investments in development and preparation will be performed, Germany could participate in the 2011 EU-census-round with a register based census at a fraction of the cost of a traditional census. Finally, the census 2011 will show the real quality of the registers, how the model will work throughout the country and which measures have to be taken before the following census.

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Zusammenfassung In Deutschland wurde die letzte Volksz?hlung 1987 (Alte Bundesl?nder) bzw. 1981 (Neue Bundesl?nder) durchgeführt. An dem EU-weiten Zensus um das Jahr 2000 beteiligte sich Deutschland als einziger EU-Staat nicht, da ein herk?mmlicher Zensus aus Kosten- und Akzeptanzgründen politisch nicht durchsetzbar war. Die Voraussetzungen für einen Registerzensus, d. h. Statistikregister, die alle ben?tigten Merkmale mit hinreichender Genauigkeit und Aktualit?t enthalten, waren und sind nicht vorhanden. Amtliche Statistiker entwickelten ein Modell für einen registergestützten Zensus mit einem m?glichst geringen Anteil an prim?rstatistischen Erhebungen. Aufgrund der für einen Zensus auf Basis von Registern ungünstigen Rahmenbedingungen wurde dieses Modell relativ komplex und in vielen Bereichen statistisches Neuland betreten. Wesentliche Elemente des Modells wurden in einem sog. Zensustest überprüft. Getestet wurden insbesondere die Qualit?t und Aktualit?t vorhandener Register, wie Melderegister und Dateien der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, sowie die Eignung und Wirksamkeit der Verfahren, wie Zusammenführungen der Daten aus verschiedenen Quellen und Haushaltegenerierung. Die Tests best?tigten die Machbarkeit des Zensusmodells, zeigten aber gleichzeitig, dass noch umfangreiche Entwicklungsarbeiten erforderlich sind und dass die Register noch keine Qualit?t aufweisen, die einen Verzicht auf prim?rstatistische Erhebungen zur Korrektur und Erg?nzung der Registerergebnisse zulassen. Dies gilt auch unter Berücksichtigung der in den n?chsten Jahren vorgesehenen Ma?nahmen zur Verbesserung der Qualit?t der Melderegister, wie die Einführung eines elektronischen Rückmeldeverfahrens oder die Erg?nzung der Melderegister um eine bundeseinheitliche Steuernummer für jede Person. Soweit in den n?chsten Jahren die erforderlichen Investitionen in Entwicklung und Vorbereitung eines registergestützten Zensus get?tigt werden, k?nnte in Deutschland im Rahmen der n?chsten EU-Zensusrunde ein solcher Zensus im Jahre 2011 zu einem Bruchteil der Kosten eines herk?mmlichen Zensus durchgeführt werden. Erst mit diesem Zensus k?nnte dann letztlich festgestellt werden, welche Qualit?t die Register zu diesem Zeitpunkt aufweisen, wie sich das Modell eines registergestützten Zensus (fl?chendeckend) in der Praxis bew?hrt und welche Ma?nahmen für darauf folgende Zensen in Angriff genommen werden müssen.

     

Complementarities and Substitutabilities in Franchise Contracting: Some Results from the German Franchise Sector

According to the property rights approach,decision rights have to be allocated accordingto the distribution of intangible knowledge assetsbetween the franchisor and franchisee andownership rights have to be assigned according to theresidual rights of control (residual decisionrights). Since residual income rights are diluted infranchising relationships, ownership rightsinclude not only residual income rights (initial fees androyalties) but also complementary ownershipsurrogates to simulate the motivation effect of undilutedownership rights. Therefore, under a propertyrights perspective, an efficient contract structure infranchise relationships implies co-locationbetween knowledge assets and decision rights andcomplementarity between residual decision andownership rights. The more important the franchisor's(franchisee's) system-specific assets (localmarket knowhow) for the generation of residual surplus, themore decision and complementary ownership rightsshould be transferred to the franchisor(franchisee). Three hypotheses were derivedfrom the property rights approach and tested in the Germanfranchise sector. The empirical results arepartly supportive of the hypotheses.     

Bildung und der Dinfluss von Argumenten auf das Moralische Urteil

According to Kohlberg our moral judgment develops in an irreversible sequence of 6 stages. Starting on a level where moral problems are perceived from an egocentric point of view until an increasingly broader and more integrated perspective replaces the initially more restricted one. By using a vignette design on the background of this theory euthanasia was selected as an example to investigate to what extent arguments can morally justify a decision. In order to judge which arguments are adequate and which are less adequate cognitive competence is required. A central task of the education system is to increase this competence. Therefore it is assumed that the impact of different arguments depends above all on the level of education. All in all, the empirical analyses reported in this article do not confirm these hypotheses. In methodological respect the analyses go beyond earlier research since a recently developed multi level procedure is used. This allows an estimate of the intra-individual answer behavior of respondents and inter-individual differences between respondents simultaneously.     

Was leistet Organisationsentwicklung?

Potentials of organization development (OD) are discussed from the perspectives of organization/client, counselling and science. The focal questions of the discussion are: What can OD achieve compared to strategy consulting? How can both forms be sensibly combined? What are the potentials of a psychologically based form of organizational counselling? Which (potentially latent) functions do organizational consulting / OD fulfil for the client organization? The discussion closes with considerations regarding a potential professionalization and the future of OD.     

Die „4-Level-Evaluation“: Messen der Ergebnis- und Prozessqualität im Coaching

“4-Level-Evaluation”: Measuring coaching success. Introducing a general and valid evaluation methodology, the “4-level-evaluation”, which will secure measuring coaching success and coaching process –without any limitation in terms of special tools or methods – and which every client will understand and appreciate. How to create a realistic evaluation bottom line, how to manage expectations to avoid perhaps disappointments, how to define possible coaching goals and how to eventually evaluate grades of achievement are explained and applied to a practical coaching case.     

On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series,II. Resampling procedures

We study an autoregressive time series model with a possible change in the regression parameters. Approximations to the critical values for change-point tests are obtained through various bootstrapping methods. Theoretical results show that the bootstrapping procedures have the same limiting behavior as their asymptotic counterparts discussed in Hušková et al. [2007. On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series, I. Asymptotics. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 1243–1259]. In fact, a small simulation study illustrates that the bootstrap tests behave better than the original asymptotic tests if performance is measured by the α$\alpha$- and β$\beta$-errors, respectively.     

On an improved Erdő-Rényi-type law for increments of partial sums

Let X₁, X₂,… be an independently and identically distributed sequence with ξX₁ = 0, ξ exp (tX₁ < ∞ (t ≧ 0) and partial sums S_n = X₁ + … + X_n. Consider the maximum increment D₁ (N, K) = max_{0≤n ≤ N - K} (S_{n + K} - S_n)of the sequence (S_n) in (0, N) over a time K = K_N, 1 ≦ K ≦ N. Under appropriate conditions on (K_N) it is shown that in the case K_N/log N → 0, but K_N/(log N)^1/2 → ∞, there exists a sequence (α_N) such that K_-1/2 D₁ (N, K) - α_N converges to 0 w. p. 1. This result provides a small increment analogue to the improved Erd?s-Rényi-type laws stated by Csörg? and Steinebach (1981).