Settlement size and fertility in the Nordic countries

While the variation in childbearing patterns across countries and between socio-economic groups within a country has been studied in detail, less is known about the differences in fertility patterns across settlements within a country. Using aggregate and individual-level register data, we examine fertility variation across settlements in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. We observe a significant variation in fertility level by settlement size in all four of these Nordic countries - the larger the settlement, the lower the fertility. Second, the variation in fertility level has decreased over time, but significant differences in fertility between settlements of different size persist. Third, the timing of childbearing also varies across settlements - the larger the settlement, the later the peak of fertility. Fourth, our analysis of parity-specific fertility in Sweden shows that the major socio-economic characteristics of women account for only a small portion of fertility variation across settlements.     

Just Another American Story? The First Black First Family

Analyses of racial equality and gender equity remain muted within contemporary U.S. public policy debates. This context mandates a search for a new language to address social inequalities generally, and racial inequalities in particular. In this regard, the construct of family may be especially useful in that family rhetoric is the symbolic carrier of multiple, often contradictory stories about race, gender, class, sexuality and citizenship. Moreover, because family structures are vital institutional carriers for economic transformations of the new global economy, public policies can be made comprehensible via the rhetoric of family. Using the centrality of family narratives in Barack Obama??s campaign and subsequent Presidency as a site for exploring changing conceptions of race, gender, economic security and American national identity, this essay explores how the symbolic and structural dimensions of family have been an important part of the American national story.     

Parameter Estimation Robust to Low-Frequency Contamination

We provide methods to robustly estimate the parameters of stationary ergodic short-memory time series models in the potential presence of additive low-frequency contamination. The types of contamination covered include level shifts (changes in mean) and monotone or smooth time trends, both of which have been shown to bias parameter estimates toward regions of persistence in a variety of contexts. The estimators presented here minimize trimmed frequency domain quasi-maximum likelihood (FDQML) objective functions without requiring specification of the low-frequency contaminating component. When proper sample size-dependent trimmings are used, the FDQML estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, asymptotically eliminating the presence of any spurious persistence. These asymptotic results also hold in the absence of additive low-frequency contamination, enabling the practitioner to robustly estimate model parameters without prior knowledge of whether contamination is present. Popular time series models that fit into the framework of this article include autoregressive moving average (ARMA), stochastic volatility, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models. We explore the finite sample properties of the trimmed FDQML estimators of the parameters of some of these models, providing practical guidance on trimming choice. Empirical estimation results suggest that a large portion of the apparent persistence in certain volatility time series may indeed be spurious. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Foster care and the earned income tax credit

Foster care is a source of significant costs to both governments and foster children. Policies that provide income support to households potentially reduce entry into foster care via reducing child maltreatment and improving child behavior. As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009 (ARRA2009), the federal government expanded the earned income tax credit (EITC), which is an important income support program for low-income working households. Using state-level data, we investigate the impact of this EITC expansion on state-level foster care entry rates. Typically, states with state-level EITC match federal EITC spending at a specific rate, meaning that increases in federal EITC spending increase state-level spending as well. We find that expansion of EITC decreased foster care entry rates by 7.43% per year in states with a state-level EITC, relative to those without. In models that separately examine foster care entry rates by age of the child, we find that the ARRA2009 had different effects on foster care entry based on the child’s age. We find that ARRA2009 decreased foster care entry rates for children age 11–15 by nearly 12% in states with a state EITC and it decreased foster care entry rates for children age 16–20 by roughly 17% in states with a state EITC, relative to states without a state EITC.     

Foster care transition services for youth with disabilities: findings from a survey of county service providers

This study explores the transition services available for youth with disabilities in foster care and the collaboration among foster care transition programs with other types of providers. Findings from this survey of independent living coordinators working for child welfare agencies indicate that while youth with disabilities are being served through transition programs and these programs collaborate with other government agencies, there are few services targeted directly toward their needs, little collaboration with community-based agencies, and a need for more information sharing.     

Properties and Applications of the Generalized Likelihood as a Summary Function for Prediction Problems

The generalized likelihood plays an important role in parametric inference for prediction and empirical Bayesian models. This paper emphasizes the utility of the generalized likelihood as a summarization procedure in general prediction models. Properties of the generalized likelihood when used in this setting, and examples of its use as a data analytic tool are given in a series of numerical examples.     

Staying on topic,changing the topic: language and gender in the 1995 Louisiana governor's race

This study examines the gendered use of topic shifting within an electoral community of practice of ten candidates for the governor of Louisiana (three female, seven male) during two political debates. Despite gender, the candidates shared the same communicative goals of building camaraderie with voters as well as distinguishing themselves from each other within these debates. Due to these shared goals, the debate context provided a type of baseline setting to explore whether or not previously established language and gender patterns, such as male communicative goals being generally competitive and female goals being generally collaborative, hold in a public forum. Overall, topic shifting has tended to be seen as a conversational control mechanism associated with competition and male patterns of speech. However, meta-topic shifting (i.e., shifting the topic from a particular educational plan to education in general) has been seen as a collaborative strategy associated with female speech. The findings on men's speech and topic shifting did not support previous research; however, the findings on women's speech and meta-topic shifting did support previous research.     

Adolescent Substance Use Prevention Interventions Outside of Classroom Settings

Substance use prevention programs empowering individual adolescents to resist substance use through education and skills training are crucial to reducing substance use within this population. However, existing programs of this type are designed primarily for classroom use, and may not meet the needs of social workers intervening with adolescents outside classroom settings. A literature review identified six programs that have demonstrated statistically significant reductions in substance use when implemented outside the classroom. The current study describes these programs, identifies their common characteristics, and draws on additional prevention research to outline recommendations for practitioners seeking to apply the field’s most current knowledge base in community settings.