Employee turnover forecasting for human resource management based on time series analysis

In some organizations, the hiring lead time is often long due to responding to human resource requirements associated with technical and security constrains. Thus, the human resource departments in these organizations are pretty interested in forecasting employee turnover since a good prediction of employee turnover could help the organizations to minimize the costs and impacts from the turnover on the operational capabilities and the budget. This study aims to enhance the ability to forecast employee turnover with or without considering the impact of economic indicators. Various time series modelling techniques were used to identify optimal models for effective employee turnover prediction. More than 11-years of monthly turnover data were used to build and validate the proposed models. Compared with other models, a dynamic regression model with additive trend, seasonality, interventions, and a very important economic indicator effectively predicted the turnover with training R²?=?0.77 and holdout R²?=?0.59. The forecasting performance of optimal models confirms that time series modelling approach has the ability to predict employee turnover for the specific scenario observed in our analysis.     

Why parents matter: exploring the impact of a hegemonic concern with the timetable for the child

In a climate of austerity, timescales and targets, this paper probes whether parents matter sufficiently within the current child protection system in England. Evidence suggests that achieving partnership working in the context of child protection has become increasingly illusive, particularly when parents are notified that the local authority is considering compulsory intervention to remove their children under the Children Act 1989. Recent changes to legislation, policy and practice ushered in with the aim of achieving earlier decisions within the time frame for the child are laudable, but there are consequences for both children and their parents. The aspirations of the Public Law Outline (2008) are well rehearsed, but the changes being introduced with the recent reform of the family justice system, alongside particular constructions of parenting, may be failing to recognize the potential of many parents, if offered appropriate support, to care safely for their children.     

Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis

Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely rated decision‐making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented that aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules that express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In pest risk analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs that are consistent and easy to understand, criticize, compare, and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution that they used in the risk assessments.     

Book Review: Charles T. Clotfelter and Thomas Ehrlich (eds.), Philanthropy and the Nonprofit Sector in a Changing America,Indiana University Press,Bloomington, 1999, 544 pp., $24.95 (paperback)

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

Practitioner accounts of responding to parent abuse – a case study in ad hoc delivery,perverse outcomes and a policy silence

Parent abuse is becoming recognized as a serious problem in some families. It can have a damaging impact on physical and mental health, family relationships and employment and has been found to be implicated in other past, current and future forms of family abuse and violence. For this reason, many frontline practitioners who work with troubled families frequently find incidents of parent abuse in their caseloads, but we know little of how they respond to it. This study used in‐depth interviews with nine practitioners who work in a range of agencies in one large county in England and explored how they each identify, conceptualize, explain and respond to parent abuse. In a context where there is no national guidance regarding how agencies should respond to this problem, this study finds that practitioners must ‘make do’ without appropriate resources or policy guidance to help them. The study concludes with suggestions for change for the benefit of families who seek support but who currently find little effective response.     

Fertility beyond the frontier: indigenous women,fertility, and reproductive practices in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Recent research suggests that after decades of population decline, indigenous populations of the lowland tropics of Latin America are now experiencing rapid growth. At the same time, conservationists have pronounced indigenous lands as a key to the future of Amazon forests. As such, conservationists should have a good understanding of indigenous demography and impacts on conservation and development. Yet, there is little depth to understanding of these demographic changes and a dearth of quantitative research on the reproductive practices of indigenous populations. This study addresses these gaps through analyses of a household survey of 648 women of reproductive age from five distinct ethnic populations in the Ecuadorian Amazon. We estimate fertility, analyze reproductive intentions and contraceptive use, and determine the unmet need for reproductive health services. The analyses confirm high fertility rates and high levels of unmet need for contraception. With regard to program and policy implications, we conclude by arguing that isolation and cultural barriers present unique challenges to meet the reproductive health needs of these populations. Innovative approaches, such as those merging population–health–environment topics, may be most relevant for meeting these challenges.

Intersectional Epistemologies of Ignorance: How Behavioral and Social Science Research Shapes What We Know,Think We Know,and Don’t Know About U.S. Black Men’s Sexualities

Epistemologies of ignorance describe how ignorance influences the production of knowledge. Advancing an intersectional epistemologies of ignorance approach that examines how conscious (or unconscious) ignorance about racism, heterosexism, and classism shapes empirical knowledge about Black men’s sexualities, we conducted a critical review of the behavioral and social science research on U.S. Black men, ages 18 and older, for two time frames: pre-1981 and the most recent decade, 2006–2016. Our search yielded 668 articles, which we classified into five categories: sexual violence, sexual experiences and expressions, sexual identities, cultural and social-structural influences, and sexual health and sexual risk. We found that most of the research, particularly pre-1981, centered the experiences of White heterosexual men as normative and implicitly constructed Black men as hypersexual or deviant. Most of the research also color-blinded White privilege and ignored how racism, heterosexism, and classism structured Black men’s inequities. We also found notable exceptions to these trends. Black men who are gay, bisexual, or who have sex with men, and research on HIV risk were prominent in the past decade, as was research that emphasized the social-structural (e.g., poverty, heterosexism, racism) and cultural (e.g., masculinity, religion) contexts of Black men’s lives and sexualities. We provide 10 recommendations to avoid intersectional epistemic ignorance in future research.     

Adolescent‐to‐parent violence and abuse: Parents' management of tension and ambiguity—an interpretative phenomenological analysis

Adolescent violence and abuse towards parents is under researched, especially in the UK where reports of the phenomenon are increasing with little clear guidance as to how practitioners might respond. In this qualitative study, 6 parents were recruited through youth offending teams and were interviewed about their lived experiences of violence and/or abuse from their adolescent child. Using interpretative phenomenological analysis, 3 superordinate themes emerged (a) the tensions and (b) the ambiguities produced by living with the violence and abuse and (c) the ways that parents manage the harms caused by these tensions and ambiguities. Theoretical and clinical implications are discussed, including consideration of how practitioners might support parents who are living with adolescent‐to‐parent violence and abuse to establish healthy and sustainable coping strategies while repairing family relationships.