Social Policies for the Elderly in the Republic of Korea and Japan: A Comparative Perspective*

The Republic of Korea (South Korea) and Japan are highly industrialized and modern nations which are both influenced by the Confucian tradition of respect for the elderly and family responsibility for the care of aging parents. In both countries the proportion of the elderly population is increasing. Japan, since the end of World War II, has utilized its government bureaucracy to help develop the social welfare system and to formulate social policies and programs for the elderly. Japan's tradition of samurai Confucianism is congruent with the commitment of the Japanese government to such social development as a matter of national policy. The Republic of Korea has not assigned a comprehensive planning role to its government bureaucracy. Lacking the mix of industrial/post-industrial infrastructure of Japan and not yet faced with the immediacy of a very large elderly population, the Republic of Korea's government has developed its social policies for the elderly in a more incremental manner, usually emphasizing small scale and piecemeal initiatives. With respect to social support, it has emphasized voluntary family efforts as congruent with the Korean (and Chinese) variant of Confucianism. This paper will compare and contrast these different approaches.     

Evaluating the risks in acquisition

This paper aims to illustrate the role of strategic risk analysis in the process of policy dialogue. An example of a new product diversification demonstrates the role of risk analysis in clarifying problem assumptions and in understanding the impact of uncertainty on decision-making. Risk analysis is seen as an adjunct and aid to problem formulation and resolution and not an end in itself.     

Evidence,incidence, gender and age in sexual abuse of children perpetrated by children. Towards a developmental analysis of child sexual abuse

This paper describes a study of all children alleged to have sexually abused children in the city of Liverpool during a 12-month period. The nature of the evidence in the allegations is reviewed and each designated as ‘stronger’ or ‘weaker’. On this basis annual incidence figures are calculated for children being investigated as possibly or probably having abused another child. Systematic age banding of child perpetrators is extended to a similar age banding of alleged adult perpetrators. An adolescent is more than twice as likely to be suspected of having perpetrated CSA than any other comparable age band in adulthood or childhood. This emphasizes a developmental perspective on sexual offending across the lifespan.     

An Exact Analysis of the Multistage Model Explaining Dose-Response Concavity

The traditional multistage (MS) model of carcinogenesis implies several empirically testable properties for dose-response functions. These include convex (linear or upward-curving) cumulative hazards as a function of dose; symmetric effects on lifetime tumor probability of transition rates at different stages; cumulative hazard functions that increase without bound as stage-specific transition rates increase without bound; and identical tumor probabilities for individuals with identical parameters and exposures. However, for at least some chemicals, cumulative hazards are not convex functions of dose. This paper shows that none of these predicted properties is implied by the mechanistic assumptions of the MS model itself. Instead, they arise from the simplifying "rare-tumor" approximations made in the usual mathematical analysis of the model. An alternative exact probabilistic analysis of the MS model with only two stages is presented, both for the usual case where a carcinogen acts on both stages simultaneously, and also for idealized initiation-promotion experiments in which one stage at a time is affected. The exact two-stage model successfully fits bioassay data for chemicals (e.g., 1,3-butadiene) with concave cumulative hazard functions that are not well-described by the traditional MS model. Qualitative properties of the exact two-stage model are described and illustrated by least-squares fits to several real datasets. The major contribution is to show that properties of the traditional MS model family that appear to be inconsistent with empirical data for some chemicals can be explained easily if an exact, rather than an approximate model, is used. This suggests that it may be worth using the exact model in cases where tumor rates are not negligible (e.g., in which they exceed 10%). This includes the majority of bioassay experiments currently being performed.