Before They Said “I Do”: Discriminating Among Marital Outcomes Over 13 Years

One hundred couples were followed for 13 years from the premarital period well through the primary risk period for divorce. Results of discriminant analysis indicated that couples who remain satisfied, become distressed, and divorce can be reliably classified on the basis of premarital data. Further, both previously identified demographic risk factors and couple interaction variables contributed to classification accuracy, suggesting that both types of variables play important roles in relationship outcomes. The method employed here addresses weakness in previous studies by: (a) following couples for an extended period after marriage, (b) using multiple validated self‐report and observational measures, and (c) making predictions simultaneously for divorced, distressed, and satisfied couples.     

Pivotal voting and the emperor's new clothes

A leading recent line of work in game theory applied to politics exploits the “pivotal voting” insight introduced by Austen-Smith and Banks [1]. The most prominent follow-on papers have been by Feddersen and Pesendorfer [2, 3, 4, 5], where a particularly striking result is that in a large election, the winner with many poorly-informed voters will be identical to the winner under full information. But of course any result whatever can be proven if sufficiently implausible assumptions are allowed. This review provides simple derivations of the elections result for both the FP 1996 model [2] and then for the (generalized) FP 1999 model [4]. The resulting transparency makes it easy to see the relation between the models, but also why neither result is relevant to actual elections. Received: 6 December 1999/Accepted: 28 August 2000     

Extending the reach of randomized social experiments: new directions in evaluations of American welfare-to-work and employment initiatives

Summary. Random assignment experiments are widely used in the USA to test the effectiveness of new social interventions. This paper discusses several major welfare-to-work experiments, highlighting their evolution from simple `black box' tests of single interventions to multigroup designs used to compare alternative interventions or to isolate the effects of components of an intervention. The paper also discusses new efforts to combine experimental and non-experimental analyses to test underlying programme theories and to maximize the knowledge gained about the effectiveness of social programmes. Researchers and policy makers in other countries may find this variety of approaches useful to consider as they debate an expanded role for social experiments.     

Was Freud a Medical Scientist or a Social Theorist? The Mysterious "Development of the Hero"

Rather than viewing Freud as a presumptuous Viennese physician who late in life attempted to "apply" some of his provocative psychological speculations to various social phenomena, this essay argues that from first to last, Freud was a social theorist. Indeed, what drew Freud to the study of biology and medicine was precisely the hope of addressing scientifically the most fundamental cultural problems: the nature of man and his culture; the origins of religion, morality, and tradition and the nature of their extraordinary power; the sources of social order and disorder; the direction of contemporary cultural development; and, finally, the problem of how to live in a disenchanted and psychologically impoverished world. Reading Freud in this manner moves his "cultural" texts from the periphery to the center of his work and makes possible an appreciation of the more complex, coherent, and illuminating social theory that lies at its heart.     

The Bangladesh Health SWAp: Experience of a New Aid Instrument in Practice

Sector‐wide approaches are being widely adopted as a new aid modality, incorporating government ownership, partnership and a move from project to programme support. The literature to date on their performance in practice is, at best, mixed. This article reviews these issues in the light of the experience of arguably the world's oldest and largest SWAp, the Bangladesh health sector programme. A positive picture emerges of an evolutionary institutional adaptation towards a programme approach, with positive systemic effects on government processes and a reduction in transaction costs in dealing with donors. There are, however, negative aspects, notably, donor dominance in ‘dialogue’, though with limited influence on the government's actual strategy.     

The Effect of a Career Development Course on the Dysfunctional Career Thoughts of Racially and Ethnically Diverse College Freshmen

Pre‐ and posttests revealed that the dysfunctional career thoughts of 158 racially and ethnically diverse college freshmen were significantly reduced following a 6‐week, 1‐credit‐hour career development course. Freshmen with the highest level of dysfunctional career thinking indicated the most dramatic decrease. These reductions in dysfunctional career thinking occurred irrespective of students' gender or race/ethnicity.