Multivariate parabolic bioassay

A general linear model approach to quantitative parabolic bioassays with multivariate responses is proposed. The point and interval estimator of the relative potency and an associated test for validity is presented. The relationships with known univariate methods are illustrated.     

Confidence intervals for the largest mean from k correlated normal populations

Let X= (X₁,…, X_k)’ be a k-variate (k ≥ 2) normal random vector with unknown population mean vector μ = (μ₁ ,…, μ_k)’ and covariance matrix Σ of order k and let μ_[1] ≤ … ≤ μ_[k] be the ordered values of the μ ’ s. No prior knowledge of the pairing of the μ_[i] with the X_j. (or μ_[i] with the σ_j ²) is assumed for any i and j (1 ≤ i, j ≤ k). Based on a random sample of N independent vector observations on X, this paper considers both upper and lower (one-sided) and two-sided 100γ% (0 < γ < 1) confidence intervals for μ_[k] and μ_[1], the largest and the smallest mean, respectively, when Σ is known and when Σ is equal to σ²R with common unknown variance σ² > 0 and correlation matrix R known, respectively. An optimum two-sided confidence interval via finding the shortest length from this class is also considered. Necessary tables and computer program to actually apply these procedures are provided.     

Intensive family preservation services in Flanders: an outcome study

Set up as a one-group pre-test–post-test follow-up design, this study examines the outcomes of intensive family preservation services (IFPS) in Flanders addressing the following research questions: Does IFPS make a significant difference concerning (1) the interaction between parent and child? (2) social support as experienced by the parent? (3) stress and empowerment of the parent? and (4) the strengths and difficulties of the minor? Families seem to indicate that their family situation is more manageable, although still, professional help is needed. Parents feel more resilient about the situation and indicate that they can get along with their child better than before the crisis intervention. Parents still feel uncertain about the future and about their role as a parent. There seems to be no indications that their level and quality of social contacts have changed. Further research is suggested to provide more in-depth information about the conditions associated with processes of change during an IFPS intervention.     

Improvement over bayes prediction in small samples in the presence of model uncertainty

In an online prediction context, the authors introduce a new class of mongrel criteria that allow for the weighing of candidate models and the combination of their predictions based both on model‐based and empirical measures of their performance. They present simulation results which show that model averaging using the mongrel‐derived weights leads, in small samples, to predictions that are more accurate than that obtained by Bayesian weight updating, provided that none of the candidate models is too distant from the data generator.     

„Lola rennt“ oder: „es hätte auch anders kommen können“ – Über den Möglichkeitsraum gruppendynamischer Intervention

A group of eight Trainers for Groupdynamic analyzed their interventions as trainers of Sensitivity-Groups during the last seven years. They used the methodological approach of Sequential Analysis and the model of the groupdynamic space (Amann, Gruppenprozesse verste-hen, 2001, S. 28). This model combines the three elementary polarities shaping the dynamic in T-Groups: belonging (in or out), power (up or down) and nearness (near or far) and supposes that these three polarities form a kind of dynamical “group-space” in which the three dimensions are simultaneously effective. Thus this model avoids a hydraulic understanding of group processes. Taking into account the model of groupdynamical space the group analyzed Trainer-interventions and asked which alternative intervention could have been possible to underline another dimension of the space. In the analysis of interventions they pointed out which of the three dimensions the trainer-intervention was focussing, which consequences this decision had for the group-process and they asked hypothetically which effects another strategy of intervention could have had. Every intervention is the consequence of a particular interpretation of the current group situation. And each decision could have been taken differently by bringing the attention towards another dimension of the groupdynamical space. This is the core-idea of this essay. Years ago a german movie was released with the title “Lola rennt” and it showed three variations of one moment with three entirely different show downs. This idea inspired us to choose the same titel for our reflections about the practice and richness of groupdynamical interventions. This essay is meant as a contribution to a “second order Groupdynamic” which is interested more in the way trainers perceive group processes than in the theory of the group-process itself.     

Drivers of Economic Reform in Vietnam's Provinces

Allowing provinces to find their own way forward was central to Vietnam's progress in institutional and economic development. This article examines who drives this process of economic reform and finds that, in those provinces making the most progress, the private sector played an important role, not against, but with government. Both national and foreign enterprises played a role, but small enterprises tended to be marginalised. Some of the best insights come from comparing provinces and observing how different alignments of interest influenced the reform process.