Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

New lower bounds for the second variable Zagreb index

The aim of this paper is to obtain new sharp inequalities for a large family of topological indices, including the second variable Zagreb index \(M_2^{\alpha }\), and to characterize the set of extremal graphs with respect to them. Our main results provide lower bounds on this family of topological indices involving just the minimum and the maximum degree of the graph. These inequalities are new even for the Randi?, the second Zagreb and the modified Zagreb indices.     

Les transferts de fonds et leur effet sur les indicateurs du marché du travail: illustration par le cas mexicain

L'effet des envois de fonds sur les indicateurs du marché du travail est abondamment traité dans la littérature, à partir de microdonnées en général. Les macrodonnées, plus rarement utilisées, posent un problème d'endogénéité lié aux corrélations possibles de la variable relative aux transferts. Dans cette analyse, fondée sur des données de panel relatives au Mexique, les auteurs cherchent à contourner le problème en utilisant un estimateur GMM en système. Ils montrent que les envois de fonds élèvent les taux d'activité tout en réduisant le nombre des heures travaillées, la fréquence de l'emploi «critique» (c'est‐à‐dire de mauvaise qualité) et la durée des épisodes de chômage.     

An intuitive risk factors search algorithm: usage of the Bayesian network technique in personalized medicine

The article focuses on the application of the Bayesian networks (BN) technique to problems of personalized medicine. The simple (intuitive) algorithm of BN optimization with respect to the number of nodes using naive network topology is developed. This algorithm allows to increase the BN prediction quality and to identify the most important variables of the network. The parallel program implementing the algorithm has demonstrated good scalability with an increase in the computational cores number, and it can be applied to the large patients database containing thousands of variables. This program is applied for the prediction for the unfavorable outcome of coronary artery disease (CAD) for patients who survived the acute coronary syndrome (ACS). As a result, the quality of the predictions of the investigated networks was significantly improved and the most important risk factors were detected. The significance of the tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene polymorphism for the prediction of the unfavorable outcome of CAD for patients survived after ACS was revealed for the first time.     

Usability and Feasibility Study of a Remote Cognitive Behavioral Therapy System with Long-Term Unemployed Women

We present the results of the use of a cognitive behavioral therapeutic intervention tool to improve the mental, physical, and social health of a group of long-term unemployed women in Spain. Method: We sent automated text messages (SMS) to the mobile phones of long-term unemployed women selected at random from public social services. During a 28-day intervention period, women received four daily automated text messages on her mobile phone on a predetermined hourly schedule. We measured depression symptoms at the start and end of the intervention and we analyzed qualitative data to determine the acceptability of a remote SMS program. Results: Depression symptoms using the Personal Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), went from an average of 13.8 at baseline to 4.9 at the end of 28 days (p?=?0.89). One hundred percent of the women reported that they liked receiving the text messages and most found them helpful.     

A simulation study of the Bennett test and Miller test for coefficients of variation

In the article, properties of the Bennett test and Miller test are analyzed. Assuming that the sample size is the same for each sample and considering the null hypothesis that the coefficients of variation for k populations are equal against the hypothesis that k ? 1 coefficients of variation are the same but differ from the coefficient of variation for the kth population, the empirical significance level and the power of the test are studied. Moreover, the dependence of the test statistic and the power of the test on the ratio of coefficients of variation are considered. The analyses are performed on simulated data.     

Relationship between duration of second stage of labour and postpartum anaemia

Aim

To assess the relationship between the duration of the second stage of labour and postpartum anaemia during vaginal birth.

Exploring the relationship between parents’ and children’s housework time in Spain

Intergenerational transmission has been successfully employed in economic research to explain the persistence of certain economic behaviors across generations. This paper evaluates the relevance of this transmission process in the formation of gender roles during childhood. In particular, we analyze the relationship between parents?? and children??s housework allocation patterns. We propose a simple theoretical model that predicts that parents with a strong adherence to gender to traditional gender norms??as proxied by their division of household labor??are more likely to allocate housework to children in a way that reflects stereotypes of men??s and women??s domestic tasks. The empirical application is carried out with data from the 2002?C2003 Spanish Time Use Survey. The sample restricts to two-parent households with at least one child aged 10?C17?years. We find a significant positive correlation between a more egalitarian parents?? allocation of housework and a less asymmetrical distribution of domestic chores between sons and daughters.     

Más allá de la sociología. Sobre catástrofes,expertos y comunidades

We could state that a catastrophic discourse is one that refers to a catastrophe which is avoided by the same discourse. This kind of discourse stimulates cautious behaviours. It is necessary that the actors do not know that the catastrophe exists and that they are avoiding it so that this situation can work. Nevertheless, the analyst knows everything. The catastrophic discourse takes part in a stable situation in which the analyst's knowledge is directly proportional to the actor alienation. The economist knows that unstable situations like panic produce an opposite phenomenon: the analyst does not know very well what is going on but the actor knows how to manage. If the market, as well as stable operation, permits instability, the prevention of catastrophes could admit an unstable one, similar to panic and together with the catastrophic solution. This paper suggests some concepts to think about this unstable and anticatastrophic situation. They are notions which give prominence to ‘emergentism’, autopoiesis and uncertainty. The reinterpretation of the Hobbesian natural state developed by Foucault, the analysis of the mobilization power of fear by Bataille and the unpolitical reflections of the community which have been proposed by Esposito, Nancy and Agamben will be reinterpreted in order to achieve this goal.