„Analysis of Categorical Data and Discrete Choices“ 30. Frühjahrsseminar des Zentralarchivs für Empirische Sozialforschung Universität zu Köln, 5.–23. März 2001

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Trends in the association between educational attainment and class destinations in West Germany: Looking inside the service class

The paper investigates long-term trends in the association between educational attainment and class destinations in Germany. Most recent evidence for several European countries reveals a downward effect of education on social class. To test changes in the association in Germany I use the 1976–2007 waves of the German Microcensus (GMC), which is a nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional survey. For Germany, log-linear models indicate that the relationship between education and class destinations remains rather constant for both sexes. I also find that returns to higher education in access to service class positions do not consistently decline either. Only university graduates’ relative access chances slightly decreased in comparison to Abitur-holders from the 1980s to the 1990s. In order to consider compositional changes in the service class in more detail, I further disaggregate the service class into three types of employment: administrative/managerial positions, professional experts and professional positions in the social services. In fact, I find that access to administrative and managerial positions is less dependent on education than access to the professions. While professional positions in the social services become less stratified by education over time, it is compensated by a reverse development for professional experts. As substantially more employees work in administrative and managerial jobs since the 1970s, the slight reduction in university returns can indeed be attributed to a compositional effect. In spite of these qualitative and quantitative changes, the strong impact of education on access to the service class does not become blurred. The paper concludes that the persistent institutional framework in Germany does not lead to a decline in the overall association between educational attainment and class destinations.     

Why the rise in adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic in the 1990s?

Despite concern over high pregnancy rates and levels of risk for sexually transmittedinfections, adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic have not changed substantially since the early 1980's, and actually increased during the early to mid 1990s. The present study was undertaken to assess the factors contributing to the recent rise in fertility among Dominican adolescents. The findings suggest that although contraceptive use among adolescents and young adults has increased, this has been more than offset by ominous trends on other determinants of fertility. Among these are declines in mean age at first sex and first marriage/union without a commensurate decline in mean age at first contraceptive use, and stubbornly high discontinuation rates for oral contraceptives andcondoms. There is also some evidence that rates of induced abortion among adolescents may have increased, without which adolescent fertility rates would have been even higher. Demand for children among Dominican adolescents remains strong, suggesting that efforts to reduce the current high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors need to influence social norms in order to be successful.     

The maximum likelihood estimators in the growth curve model with serial covariance structure

The maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in the growth curve model with serial covariance structure under some conditions are derived in the paper.     

A Model for the Transportation of Hazardous Waste*

Many decision problems, such as the transportation of hazardous waste, can be modeled by networks. However, due to the imprecise nature of much of the information decision makers have available, it is sometimes difficult to determine a best approach to the problem. To alleviate this problem, a network model that combines both precise and imprecise information is presented for the transportation of hazardous waste. The properties of the network model are investigated and solution procedures are presented.     

Motherhood status and union formation in Moshi, Tanzania 2002-2003

Age at first union is increasing throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa at the same time that not all couples are waiting for marriage before their first sexual intercourse. We assessed the effect of a premarital first birth on entrance into a first union in an urban area in East Africa -- Moshi, Tanzania. The data come from the Moshi Infertility Survey of 2002-2003. Women who spent less than a year in single motherhood were significantly more likely than childless women to enter into a first union, although the magnitude of this relationship was weaker for more recent cohorts. Women who had been single mothers for 5 or more years (about two-thirds of women with a premarital birth) were significantly less likely than women without children to enter into a first union.     

Determinanten der Sportaktivität und der Sportart im Lebenslauf

This paper investigates the impact of social class, occupational and family life-course, relocation, age, generation and gender on exercise. Longitudinal, life course-oriented analysis enables identification of the (often diverse) conditions for (re-)uptake and discontinuation of exercise. The paper takes a detailed look at different types of exercise, enabling exploration of the various motivating influences and barriers involved. The database is a retrospective representative survey of the 50 to 70 year old population of Baden-Württemberg, Germany. The results show that higher educational qualifications are associated with higher levels of exercise, whereas manual labor and – among women – childcare are associated with lower levels of exercise. With respect to the impact of education, cultural rather than economic capital seems to be the determining influence. Other factors – (un-)employment, partnership, relocation, age and cohort – tend to have more complex effects on exercise. Though being a member of the workforce reduces the likelihood of starting to exercise, it also reduces the likelihood of dropping out. Though partnership encourages the dissemination of exercise, initiation of a relationship is also associated with a higher incidence of discontinuation. Relocation prompts both initiation and discontinuation of exercise. Surprisingly, up to the over-50 age group, increasing age is associated with an increased prevalence of physical activity, especially among women. The results of analysis of social differences in terms of types of physical activity can be used in health programs to provide scientifically founded recommendations for the promotion of specific types of physical activity for lower educational groups, seniors, and other social groups whose lifestyle tends to be inactive.     

Mein(nach-wie-vor-schöner)Prof.de

Tobias Wolbring argues in his replica to our article Mein(schöner)Prof.de (issue 4/2009 of this journal) that the presented empirical analyses would be problematic in several respects. He claims our sample was selective, criticizes the lacking control of relevant confounding variables and our statistical model building. In this response we consider Wolbring’s criticism in detail. We believe we can prove that his points of criticism do not hold after a close investigation. In particular, we think our central substantial conclusions can be maintained.