基于统计检验的企业生命周期判定方法比较

文章选取32家中国上市汽车企业作为研究对象,分别用综合指标法和主成分分析法对企业所处生命周期进行判定,再利用Wilcoxon符号秩检验和kappa—致性检验对两种判定结果进行检验对比,从而得出结论:综合指标法和主成分分析法均科学有效,但在具体应用时各有所长.Wilcoxon符号秩检验和kappa—致性检验叠加运用效果较好,且检验结果具有一致性.     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.     

Analysis of dependently truncated data in Cox framework

Truncation is a known feature of bone marrow transplant (BMT) registry data, for which the survival time of a leukemia patient is left truncated by the waiting time to transplant. It was recently noted that a longer waiting time was linked to poorer survival. A straightforward solution is a Cox model on the survival time with the waiting time as both truncation variable and covariate. The Cox model should also include other recognized risk factors as covariates. In this article, we focus on estimating the distribution function of waiting time and the probability of selection under the aforementioned Cox model.     

Estimation of the cumulative incidence function under multiple dependent and independent censoring mechanisms

Competing risks occur in a time-to-event analysis in which a patient can experience one of several types of events. Traditional methods for handling competing risks data presuppose one censoring process, which is assumed to be independent. In a controlled clinical trial, censoring can occur for several reasons: some independent, others dependent. We propose an estimator of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of both independent and dependent censoring mechanisms. We rely on semi-parametric theory to derive an augmented inverse probability of censoring weighted (AIPCW) estimator. We demonstrate the efficiency gained when using the AIPCW estimator compared to a non-augmented estimator via simulations. We then apply our method to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three anti-HIV regimens in a randomized trial conducted by the AIDS Clinical Trial Group, ACTG A5095.     

房价对企业技术创新产出的成本效应与投资效应研究——基于A股上市公司数据的实证分析

文章将房价对企业创新水平的影响归结为"成本效应"及"投资效应"两种影响机制，并分析了房地产价格、房产性投资行为、房产性投资的深化以及企业技术创新产出之间的关系。文章的创新之处在于，将创新要素投入和创新管理水平作为中介变量，从理论和实证两方面检验房价和创新产出的关系。基于提出的理论观点利用A股上市公司数据，对研究假设进行了实证研究，得到如下结论：房价对企业技术创新水平的影响机制至少是通过"成本效应"与"投资效应"两条渠道实现的；房价对企业技术创新水平的"成本效应"是通过技术创新投入作为中介对技术创新成果产生影响；房价对企业技术创新水平的"投资效应"是通过技术创新管理水平作为中介对技术创新成果产生影响；未能证实房产性投资会挤压上市公司技术创新投入。文章的研究结论具有以下重要政策启示意义：应当重视房地产价格对企业技术创新产出的"成本效应"。在新旧动能转换的背景下，创新人才的稀缺性提高了其在劳动力市场的议价能力，作为生活必需品的房屋价格上涨，会导致创新人才的劳动力价格随之上涨，这势必加大企业技术创新投入的负担，影响企业的转型升级和长期发展质量；A股企业的房地产投资并未挤压技术创新投入，但降低了企业创新的效率。在政策上，应当制定相关技术创新效率的考察指标，促进骨干型企业重视其创新效率的提升。     

红色文化增进铸牢中华民族共同体意识的多维向度解析

红色文化是中国革命建设征程的历史凝结,补钙壮骨,通今溯源,与中华民族共同体意识有着严密的耦合逻辑。在政治上,红色文化有利于坚定中国共产党的领导,明晰铸牢中华民族共同体意识的政治前提;在经济上,红色文化彰显社会主义市场经济的民族互惠指向,夯实铸牢中华民族共同体意识的经济基础;在文化上,红色文化标注社会主义先进文化建设的中国底色,聚合中华民族共同体建设的文化动力;在社会上,红色文化促进各民族交往交流交融,提升铸牢中华民族共同体意识的社会认知;在生态上,红色文化有助于建立人与自然交响协奏的生命共同体,筑牢中华民族共同家园的生态底线。     

Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates

Journal of Population Research - When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover,...     

What makes hybrid insourcing successful: A new public–private partnership model for social welfare services

Outsourcing has been a key policy tool for delivering a range of social services, and regarded as more effective than insourcing or direct government provision. At the same time, it has also caused many delivery issues such as principal‐agent problems, a lack of policy coordination, and poor‐quality welfare services. While the pendulum continues to swing between insourcing and outsourcing, we aim to propose a new public–private partnership model called the “hybrid insourcing model” and examine which factors influence the performance of the model. In South Korea, around 2010, the local government in Namyangju City was the first to implement the “Hope Care Center model,” a kind of hybrid insourcing model, which has been praised for its innovation and widely emulated by central and local governments. Our analysis utilizes data collected between December 2017 and January 2018 from public sector employees and civilian staff in Namyangju and a comparable city, A. From this, we draw a number of implications, both for theory and for policy. We argue that, for public–private partnerships, active cooperation and equality are the biggest factors in contributing to positive performance. These work alongside leaders with a clear vision and with employees' positive attitude.