从“战略纵深”看土耳其“零问题”外交政策的转变——兼谈土耳其的国际身份定位

中东变局引发了土耳其由"零问题"外交政策向积极外交政策的转变,有学者认为该转变标志着"零问题"成功升级为"零问题2.0",也有学者认为这种转变宣告"零问题"外交政策彻底失败。从现实来看,"零问题"外交政策的这种转变的确没能实现土耳其"战略纵深主义"所预设的目标,反使其陷入土叙冲突泥淖无法自拔。这种情况的出现揭示了土耳其目前的国际身份并没有得到国际社会的广泛认可,尚不具备主导地区形势和国际事务的实力和合法性。因此,土耳其以"战略身份"作为"现实身份"进行对外交往的做法很可能使其外交变得被动,且难以取得实效。     

Single Motherhood and Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Life Course Perspective

Single motherhood in sub-Saharan Africa has received surprisingly little attention, although it is widespread and has critical implications for children’s well-being. Using survival analysis techniques, we estimate the probability of becoming a single mother over women’s life course and investigate the relationship between single motherhood and child mortality in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Although a mere 5 % of women in Ethiopia have a premarital birth, one in three women in Liberia will become mothers before first marriage. Compared with children whose parents were married, children born to never-married single mothers were significantly more likely to die before age 5 in six countries (odds ratios range from 1.36 in Nigeria to 2.61 in Zimbabwe). In addition, up to 50 % of women will become single mothers as a consequence of divorce or widowhood. In nine countries, having a formerly married mother was associated with a significantly higher risk of dying (odds ratios range from 1.29 in Zambia to 1.75 in Kenya) relative to having married parents. Children of divorced women typically had the poorest outcomes. These results highlight the vulnerability of children with single mothers and suggest that policies aimed at supporting single mothers could help to further reduce child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Mapping vulnerability to climate change-related hazards: children at risk in a US–Mexico border metropolis

There are significant human impacts associated with climate change. This paper introduces a model for identifying small area risks associated with children’s vulnerability to climate change-related hazard exposures, which is transferable to other regions and adaptable to varied population and exposure scenarios. The cross-national El Paso-Ciudad Juárez (US-Mexico) metropolis serves as the study area for model implementation, which involves mapping social vulnerability, hazard exposure, and cumulative climate change-related risks. This study addresses two limitations of extant fine-scale climate change vulnerability mapping studies. First, rather than focusing on one exposure variable, it assesses the combined risks of multiple exposures (extreme heat, peak ozone, and floods) and, thus, offers a model for mapping neighborhood-level cumulative climate change exposure risks. Second, it provides a model for small area spatial analyses of climate change vulnerability within low-/middle-income countries and in contexts where climate change risks (and appropriate responses) are cross-national in scope.     

Loneliness and Subjective Happiness as Mediators of the Effects of Core Self-evaluations on Life Satisfaction Among Chinese College Students

The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediator effects of loneliness and subjective happiness on the relationship between core self-evaluations and life satisfaction in Chinese college students. A total of 301 participants were all students who were attending three different Chinese colleges in Nanchang, Xi’an and Yan’an. Data were collected by using the Core Self-evaluations Scale, UCLA Loneliness Scale, Subjective Happiness Scale and Satisfaction with Life Scale. Path revealed that subjective happiness fully mediated the relationship between core self-evaluations and life satisfaction. Furthermore, the association between core self-evaluations and life satisfaction was not mediated by loneliness and subjective happiness partially mediated the association between core self-evaluations and loneliness. The final model also showed a significant path from core self-evaluations through subjective happiness to life satisfaction and loneliness. Limitations of the study are considered and implications of the results for increasing individuals’ life satisfaction are discussed.     

Being Under Time Pressure: The Case of Workers with Disabilities

This article examines levels of time stress reported by people with and without disabilities. Using data at an individual level from the Time Use Survey for Spain in 2002–2003, we estimate an ordered probit model to investigate the determinants of time stress by disability status. We find that disabled individuals work fewer hours, have more free time and engage in more household labour as compared to the non-disabled. The estimation results show that disabled workers (especially those who are severely or moderately limited in their daily activities) suffer from more stress than their non-disabled counterparts. In addition, longer working hours increase the levels of time stress reported by all individuals, but more intensely so among disabled workers.     

Experiencing menopause in the UK: The interrelated narratives of normality,distress, and transformation

ABSTRACT

We investigated the experience and perspectives of menopause among 48 UK mothers through qualitative in-depth interviews. Interviews were analyzed thematically then explored using social science theories. Three interdependent narratives emerged: menopause as a normal, biological process, distinct from self and social transitions; menopause as struggle, an “idiom of distress” expressing upset, identity loss, shame, and social upheaval; and menopause as transformative and liberating, arising from biopsychic and relational changes. Some women followed a predictable “rite of passage” trajectory with transformation emerging from distress, but not all: Menopause arises from a complex interplay of personal predicament, somatic change, and sociocultural context.     

Predictors of stress and depressive mood in Portuguese middle-aged women

ABSTRACT

This cross-sectional study investigates the predictors of psychological symptoms—stress and depressive mood—in a sample of middle-aged women. A community sample of 1,003 women filled in the questionnaires and instruments, which included the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales and the Life Events Survey; sociodemographic, health, and menopause-related and lifestyle information was also collected. Structural equation modeling was used to build the model that had stress and depressive mood as dependent variables. Health status (both physical and psychological), recent life events, income and menopausal phase were significantly associated with the frequency of stress and depressive symptoms. Additionally, educational level and parity were also significant predictors of depressive mood. This study emphasizes that psychological symptoms occurrence in midlife depends not only on personal variables (such as health and menopausal status) but also on contextual ones (including recent stressful events) that can be a strong influence on how middle-aged women feel.     

The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and “convergence models” differ in their assessment of the extent to which demography influences economic growth. Here, I show that CGE models produce results similar to those of convergence models when more detailed demographic information is used. To do so, I implement a CGE model to explain Taiwan’s economic miracle during the period 1965–2005. I find that Taiwan’s demographic transition accounts for 22 % of per capita output growth and 17.7 % of investment rate for the period 1965–2005. Moreover, this paper confirms most of the literature written on the role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates since the seminar article by Coale and Hoover (1958).