Work-related factors contributing to chronic disability in low back pain

Low back pain is a costly and incapacitating musculoskeletal disorder. Prospective studies documenting the capacity of work-related factors to predict chronicity are few in number, the methodology used is very diversified, and the results obtained diverge. The aim of the present study is to investigate the capacity of work-related objective (non-psychosocial) and psychosocial factors to predict chronic disability related to low back pain. A longitudinal prospective study with two measurement times was carried out. The sample (N = 258) consisted of workers with subacute low back pain who were on sick leave and receiving compensation from the CSST (Quebec Workers' Compensation Board). Of all the work-related variables measured, perceived stress and fears and beliefs about work were associated with return to work status at the six-month follow-up. The results obtained show the importance of considering fears and beliefs about work when identifying people in the subacute phase of low back pain who are at risk of developing chronic disability.     

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future.     

The competitive dimension of comparative optimism / La dimensión competitiva del optimismo comparativo

We usually think that positive events are more likely to occur to us than to others and vice versa for negative events. This phenomenon, called comparative optimism, increases both social utility and the tendency to present oneself as above average. The literature highlights the same elements in competition. Our objective was to study the links between comparative optimism and competition and to argue that social utility can explain this relation. In our study, we presented participants with comparative optimistic, comparative pessimistic or neutral targets. We observed that a comparative optimistic target was perceived to fit better with a competitive situation than other targets because he/she was deemed socially useful (e.g., assertive, self-confident). Participants also felt that a comparative optimistic target pursued more performance goals than the other targets. This effect was mediated by the perception of this target as a competitive person. These results, consistent with our assumptions, highlight the competitive dimension of comparative optimism.     

Children’s Recognition and Discrimination of Fear and Disgust Facial Expressions

Facial expressions of fear and disgust have repeatedly been found to be less well recognized than those of other basic emotions by children. We undertook two studies in which we investigated the recognition and visual discrimination of these expressions in school-age children. In Study 1, children (5, 6, 9, and 10 years of age) were shown pairs of facial expressions, and asked to tell which one depicted a target emotion. The results indicated that accuracy in 9- and 10-year-olds was higher than in 5- and 6-year-olds for three contrasts: disgust–anger, fear–surprise, and fear–sadness. Younger children had more difficulty recognizing disgust when it was presented along with anger, and in recognizing fear when it was presented along with surprise. In Study 2, children (5, 6, 9, and 10 years of age) were shown a target expression along with two other expressions, and were asked to point to the expression that was the most similar to the target. Contrary to our expectations, even 5- and 6-year-olds were very accurate in discriminating fear and disgust from the other emotions, suggesting that visual perception was not the main limiting factor for the recognition of these emotions in school-age children.     

Nonparametric Identification of Risk Aversion in First‐Price Auctions Under Exclusion Restrictions

This paper studies the nonparametric identification of the first‐price auction model with risk averse bidders within the private value paradigm. First, we show that the benchmark model is nonindentified from observed bids. We also derive the restrictions imposed by the model on observables and show that these restrictions are weak. Second, we establish the nonparametric identification of the bidders' utility function under exclusion restrictions. Our primary exclusion restriction takes the form of an exogenous bidders' participation, leading to a latent distribution of private values that is independent of the number of bidders. The key idea is to exploit the property that the bid distribution varies with the number of bidders while the private value distribution does not. We then extend these results to endogenous bidders' participation when the exclusion restriction takes the form of instruments that do not affect the bidders' private value distribution. Though derived for a benchmark model, our results extend to more general cases such as a binding reserve price, affiliated private values, and asymmetric bidders. Last, possible estimation methods are proposed.     

大龄未婚男性流动人口的风险性行为及影响因素

以西安市28岁以上的大龄未婚男性流动人口为研究对象,进行了性行为相关内容的电子问卷调查,并收集农村大龄未婚男性进入城市后可能产生的风险性行为信息;通过分析明确了大龄未婚男性流动人口的风险性行为概况和人群特征,用逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)回归模型探析了其行为现状与影响因素。研究发现,大龄未婚男性流动人口在多个性伴侣与商业性行为表现出明显倾向;大龄未婚男性流动人口的经济条件年龄以及受教育程度对其风险性行为产生了影响;周围人群的风险性行为参与对大龄未婚男性流动人口的风险性行为参与产生带动作用;此外,无保护性行为在这一人群中的比例已经显著降低。     

Enhanced rate of resting energy expenditure in women using hormone-replacement therapy: preliminary results

Hormone-replacement therapy (HRT) attenuates the menopause-associated alterations in body composition. It is not known, however, whether this effect is a result of a concomitant increase in energy expenditure. The authors examined whether women submitted to a long-term HRT treatment presented greater energy expenditure than women who had never used HRT. We compared 13 postmenopausal women using HRT (>1 yr) with 13 age- (+/-2 yr) and body-mass-index-matched (BMI; +/-1.5 kg/m2) postmenopausal women not using HRT. Resting energy expenditure (REE; indirect calorimetry), body composition, and daily (DEE) and physical activity (PAEE) energy expenditure (accelerometry) were obtained. Although BMI, fat mass, fat-free mass, DEE, and PAEE were similar between groups, the HRT group displayed a significantly greater REE than the no-HRT group (Delta +222 kcal/day). In conclusion, the authors observed that a long-term treatment with HRT is associated with a greater REE in postmenopausal women. These results need to be confirmed.     

BOOK TRANSLATIONS AS IDEA FLOWS: THE EFFECTS OF THE COLLAPSE OF COMMUNISM ON THE DIFFUSION OF KNOWLEDGE

We use book translations as a new measure of international idea flows and study the effects of Communism's collapse in Eastern Europe on these flows. Using novel data on 800,000 translations and difference‐in‐differences approaches, we show that while translations between Communist languages decreased by two thirds with the collapse, Western‐to‐Communist translations increased by a factor of 4 and quickly converged to Western levels. Convergence was more pronounced in the fields of applied and social sciences, and was more complete in Satellite and Baltic than in Soviet countries. We discuss how these patterns help us understand how repressive institutions and preferences towards Western European ideas shaped the international diffusion of knowledge.     

Le temps du remue-ménage. Conditions d'emploi et de travail de femmes de chambre

It is now admitted that part-time work is a signal of inequality between the sexes, in both work and family. By focusing on cleavages among women, an analysis is made of how worktime and the company’s position as a subcontractor combine so as to produce inequality among wage-earners by assigning them heterogeneous statuses and thus forcing some of them to cope with precarious working, employment and living conditions. This study of the working and employment conditions of chamber maids in France focuses on those who work part or full-time in cleaning companies under contract with other firms. Inside this rather unskilled group of women, part-time work stresses the differences produced by subcontracting and worsens the inequality between stable, full-time employees and the women subcontracted at part-time who do the same job. These cleavages set off a strike among these part-time workers. Analyzing this labor dispute has shed light on the social relations running through the firm and on invisible issues in work and employment for these women with jobs in the shadows.     

Stochastically Modeling Listeria Monocytogenes Growth in Farm Tank Milk

This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.