THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE‐RATE REGIME AND SPECULATIVE ATTACKS

We develop a framework that makes it possible to study, for the first time, the strategic interaction between the ex ante choice of exchange‐rate regime and the likelihood of ex post currency attacks. The optimal regime is determined by a policymaker who trades off the loss from nominal exchange‐rate uncertainty against the cost of adopting a given regime. This cost increases, in turn, with the fraction of speculators who attack the local currency. Searching for the optimal regime within the class of exchange‐rate bands, we show that the optimal regime can be either a peg (a zero‐width band), a free float (an infinite‐width band), or a nondegenerate band of finite width. We study the effect of several factors on the optimal regime and on the probability of currency attacks. In particular, we show that a Tobin tax induces policymakers to set less flexible regimes. In our model, this generates an increase in the probability of currency attacks. (JEL: F31, D84)     

The Relationship Between Social Work and Psychoanalysis: The Future Impact of Social Workers

Because social workers are likely to have a more expanded role within organized psychoanalysis than previously, it seems timely to consider the numerous challenges and opportunities ahead with respect to social workers’ impact on the practice of psychoanalysis. For those who become social work psychoanalysts, in particular, a pivotal issue is the degree to which they retain their core identity as clinical social workers. It is important for them to integrate and balance the diverse aspects of their dual identity, to participate in our social work organizations, to contribute to developing psychoanalysis, and to work to keep the teaching of contemporary psychoanalytic theories alive in social work education.

Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems

We describe an approach, termed reified analysis, for linking the behaviour of mathematical models with inferences about the physical systems which the models represent. We describe the logical basis for the approach, based on coherent assessment of the implications of deficiencies in the mathematical model. We show how the statistical analysis may be carried out by specifying stochastic relationships between the model that we have, improved versions of the model that we might construct, and the system itself. We illustrate our approach with an example concerning the potential shutdown of the Thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean.     

Advancing Risk‐Informed Decision Making in Managing Defense Nuclear Waste in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges for Risk Analysis

An omnibus spending bill in 2014 directed the Department of Energy to analyze how effectively Department of Energy (DOE) identifies, programs, and executes its plans to address public health and safety risks that remain as part of DOE's remaining environmental cleanup liabilities. A committee identified two dozen issues and associated recommendations for the DOE, other federal agencies, and the U.S. Congress to consider, as well as other stakeholders such as states and tribal nations. In regard to risk assessment, the committee described a risk review process that uses available data, expert experience, identifies major data gaps, permits input from key stakeholders, and creates an ordered set of risks based on what is known. Probabilistic risk assessments could be a follow‐up from these risk reviews. In regard to risk management, the states, in particular, have become major drivers of how resources are driven. States use different laws, different priorities, and challenge DOE's policies in different ways. Land use decisions vary, technology choices are different, and other notable variations are apparent. The cost differences associated with these differences are marked. The net result is that resources do not necessarily go to the most prominent human health and safety risks, as seen from the national level.     

The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.     

Predictors and Moderators of Sexually Related Distress in Women with Persistent Genital Arousal Disorder

Abstract

The degree of general distress reported by women with Persistent Genital Arousal Disorder (PGAD) varies greatly, which might relate to their level of anxiety or depression. A variety of medical problems also has been associated with PGAD symptoms. The current study sought to determine the most significant predictor of sexually related distress and examine possible moderators. Participants were 51 women who met the criteria for PGAD and completed an online survey. Hierarchical regression determined depression significantly predicted sexually related distress, but anxiety and stress measures did not. Erotophobia and perceived partner support did not moderate the relationship between depression and sexually related distress. Greater numbers of concomitant medical diagnoses were significantly correlated with sexually related distress. The results indicate that PGAD is experienced by women as sexually distressing. As we continue to learn more about PGAD, a biopsychosocial treatment approach to PGAD, including psychotherapy would seem warranted.     

Multilevel Models in the Study of Dynamic Household Structures

A modelling procedure is proposed for complex, dynamic household data structures where households change composition over time. Multilevel multiple membership models are presented for such data and their application is discussed with an example.     

Multilevel multivariate modelling of childhood growth, numbers of growth measurements and adult characteristics

Summary.  A general latent normal model for multilevel data with mixtures of response types is extended in the case of ordered responses to deal with variates having a large number of categories and including count data. An example is analysed by using repeated measures data on child growth and adult measures of body mass index and glucose. Applications are described that are concerned with the flexible prediction of adult measurements from collections of growth measurements and for studying the relationship between the number of measurement occasions and growth trajectories.     

Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: gaps and lags

This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings augment Ryder's classic results on period-cohort translation.