Demographic change, macroeconomic conditions, and the murder rate: The case of the United States, 1934–2006

Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age–crime hypothesis. By examining a longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time. However, changes in the misery index—the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates—significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle of the 1980s.     

Conditional interval estimation of the mean following rejection of a two sided test

The effect of rejecting a two-sided preliminary test of significance for the mean of a normal distribution upon subsequent interval estimation of the mean is examined. For the case where the variance is known, conditional confidence intervals may be shorter than unconditional intervals, in contrast to the one-sided preliminary test case examined by Meeks and D’Agostino (1983, The American Statistician, 7, 134-136) . For the case where the variance is unknown and must be estimated by the sample variance, it is shown that customary intervals do not offer uniformly greater or lesser coverage than the nominal level.     

Compensatory Weight Control Behaviors of Women in Emerging Adulthood: Associations Between Childhood Abuse Experiences and Adult Relationship Avoidance

Abstract

Objective: To examine correlates of compensatory weight control behaviors among women in transition between adolescence and adulthood. Participants: The authors recruited a sample of undergraduate women (N = 759) at a large northwestern university during the 2009–2010 academic year. Methods: Logistic regression was used to assess relations among childhood abuse, psychosocial functioning, adult dating relationship factors, and women's endorsement of compensatory weight control behaviors. Results: The final model reliably distinguished between participants who endorsed versus denied use of compensatory behaviors (χ²[5, N = 747] = 36.37, p < .001), with global psychosocial functioning and relationship avoidance accounting for the most variance. Conclusions: These findings illustrate the importance of considering childhood abuse histories and adult relationships while assessing young women's compensatory weight control behaviors.     

Intergroup Competition and Attitudes Toward Immigrants and Immigration: An Instrumental Model of Group Conflict

High levels of worldwide migration paired with increasingly negative attitudes toward immigrants and immigration in host countries indicate that it is crucial to gain an understanding of the bases of these attitudes. This article discusses one determinant of negative attitudes toward immigrants and immigration: perceived competition for resources. We present our instrumental model of group conflict, which suggests that competition for resources, and attempts to remove this competition, are important determinants of intergroup attitudes and behavior. We then review relevant research on perceived competition and attitudes toward immigrants and immigration. We conclude by discussing the implications of this research for attempts to alleviate tension between immigrants and members of host populations, and for our more general model of group conflict.     

Delayed Adulthood,Delayed Desistance? Trends in the Age Distribution of Problem Behaviors

As the transition to adulthood becomes more protracted and less orderly, fewer young people occupy adult roles and experience the social control associated with these roles. One might therefore expect behaviors associated with the teenage years to spill over into older age groups, reflecting postponed entrance into full social adulthood. We test this hypothesis by examining trends over time in the age distribution of crime, substance use, and violent death. We find little evidence that behaviors typical of adolescence are moving upward to older ages. Although the achievement of adult roles is being pushed to older ages, this stretching of the transition to adulthood is not reflected in the observed patterns of substance use, violent death, and arrests.     

The Protestant Ethic: Weber s Model and the Empirical Literature

Empirical research with regard to the Protestantethic is reviewed in relation to Weber s model of thepart a specifically religious ethos played in the riseof capitalism. Weber argued that Western legal and commercial changes were not in themselvesan adequate explanation. Essential also was the set ofvalues emphasized by ascetic Protestantism:self-discipline, hard work, the careful use of time, the reinvestment of one s gains, personal honesty,creative innovation, and faith in the rewards of a justGod. Empirical research has found positive correlationsbetween Protestant ethic values and internal locus of control (self-discipline), hard work,honesty, and belief in a just world. Findings withregard to the use of time and money are inconclusive.The relationship with creative innovation has not been examined. There is a need for empiricalstudy of the relationship between the Protestant ethicand personal religious orientation.     

Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.