ASSERTION VERSUS INTERROGATION FORMAT IN OPINION SURVEYS QUESTIONS ENHANCE THOUGHTFUL RESPONDING

Two surveys on ostensibly new consumer products were administeredin order to assess the impact of presenting opinion items inan interrogation versus an assertion format. In addition tomanipulating the format of the opinion item, the back groundinformation about the product was varied so that it presentedeither a strong or a weak product attribute. In both surveys,opinions in response to the interrogation items were more polarizedthan those in response to the assertion items. These resultssuggest that the interrogation opinion format elicits more thoughtfulresponses than the assertion format.     

RESPONSE LATENCY VERSUS CERTAINTY AS INDEXES OF THE STRENGTH OF VOTING INTENTIONS IN A CATI SURVEY

This CATI study compares two measures of attitude strength,accessibility and certainty, for the purpose of predicting discrepanciesbetween voting intentions and voting behavior. Accessibilitywas indexed by response latency to a voting intention questionand certainty by a question about the finality of the votingintention. Logistic regression showed response latency to bea better predictor of discrepancies between voting intentionsand voting behavior than certainty. The theoretical implicationsof this finding as well as the practical implications of a methodfor measuring response latencies in CATI election studies arediscussed.     

DEVIATIONS FROM CONSTITUENT INTERESTS: THE ROLE OF LEGISLATIVE STRUCTURE AND POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE STATES

This paper investigates the determinants of state spending over 1960—1990. Recent empirical studies suggest that state government expenditure is greater than the electorate desires. Our main finding is that expenditure was positively related to the number of seats in a state's legislature. This is consistent with the hypothesis that logrolling leads representatives to spend more than their constituents would like. We also find that political parties do not have a pronounced effect on overall levels of expenditure, but do influence the composition of spending. In particular, Democratic control of state government is associated with higher levels of welfare spending.     

Using a Reconviction Predictor to Make Sense of Reconviction Rates in the Probation Service

Correspondence to John Wilkinson, Research Officer, Inner London Probation Service, Lansdale House, 57 Buckingham Gate, London SW1E 6AJ. Summary Reducing offending is a main aim of the probation service, butfew mechanisms exist to monitor how this is achieved. This paperdescribes how information about reconvictions can provide routinefeedback about effectiveness in combating offending. Using areconviction predictor, outcome, in terms of reconviction rate,can be evaluated against predicted outcome. A predictor wasvalidated for use in Inner London using case records. Informationwas obtained retrospectively about offenders at the start oftheir probation orders, and about subsequent reconvictions overthirteen months of probation. The predictor was found to haveconsiderable predictive power. The predictor was piloted forroutine use by probation officers, and a customized versionof the predictor was developed. The research is now moving intoa third stage, of developing an end of probation order returnwhich will supply information about reconvictions. Issues relatingto the use of reconvictions as a performance indicator, aondquestions of implementation, are discussed.