Generalized inferences on the common mean vector of several multivariate normal populations

The hypothesis testing and confidence region are considered for the common mean vector of several multivariate normal populations when the covariance matrices are unknown and possibly unequal. A generalized confidence region is derived using the concepts of generalized method based on the generalized p$p$-value. The generalized confidence region is illustrated with two numerical examples. The merits of the proposed method are numerically compared with those of existing methods with respect to their expected area or expected d-dimensional volumes and coverage probabilities under different scenarios.     

Bayesian analysis of a general growth curve model with predictions using power transformations and AR(1) autoregressive dependence

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian analysis of the unbalanced (general) growth curve model with AR(1) autoregressive dependence, while applying the Box-Cox power transformations. We propose exact, simple and Markov chain Monte Carlo approximate parameter estimation and prediction of future values. Numerical results are illustrated with real and simulated data.     

SPECTRAL ANALYSIS IN BUSINESS FORECASTING: THE WIENER-KOLMOGOROV METHOD *

The objective of this paper is to introduce the Wiener-Kolmogorov (WK) method to business researchers and to applied workers who have an interest in spectral techniques. It is seen that the advantage of the WK method is that it provides better forecasts than autoregressive regression analysis when the order of the true autoregressive process is large. The paper outlines the steps involved in the WK method. Also discussed is a labor-saving feature to guide one at the outset as to whether the WK algorithm should be used. A numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the method in time-series forecasting.     

The need for research into the effectiveness of international statistical systems and standards

Conclusion In this brief and highly selective examination of the adequacy of ISSS, it is suggested that statistical and economic research is essential if we are to ensure that these systems are fit for their intended purposes. It is too readily assumed that the statistical infrastructure is either adequate or, if not, of little significance in dealing with the major problems faced by the world today. This is far from being so and, if the necessary research were carried out, the results could make an invaluable contribution to resolving many of those problems.     

Concern About Crime Among Montana Farmers and Ranchers1

Abstract The effects of previous victimization, distance from law enforcement and neighbors, and sufficiency of police patrols on fear of crime are estimated using data from Montana farmers and ranchers. Victimization has the strongest direct effect. Distance from police and neighbors seems to heighten sensitivity to lesser police patrol activity in isolated areas, which in turn increases concern about criminal victimization. Fear of crime in rural farm areas reflects, in part, the spatial arrangements and related consequences of living in these regions.     

Communities under fire: Empowering families and children in the aftermath of homicide

This article presents an empowerment approach to clinical services for families and children surviving homicides. Narrative theory is used to integrate child, family and community interventions. The article presents a framework for the examination of narratives and guidelines for co-constructing narratives that empower children, families and communities.     

The ethics of parimutuel systems

One strand of the moral case for the superiority of parimutuel systems of betting over bookmaking emphasises that, as the name implies, the bettors are betting amongst themselves and that there is no discrimination against any individual bettor or groups of bettors. This claim is undermined by three deviations from the pure parimutuel principle found in many systems. Given that there is a close inverse relationship between the income/wealth of bettors and the average odds of the bets they place, the three deviations—higher deductions from long odds (exotic) pools, higher deductions from pools when longer odds horses win and the paying of minimum dividends—each move a parimutuel system in the unethical direction ofregressive taxation.     

The attributable estimand: A new approach to account for intercurrent events

The term “intercurrent events” has recently been used to describe events in clinical trials that may complicate the definition and calculation of the treatment effect estimand. This paper focuses on the use of an attributable estimand to address intercurrent events. Those events that are considered to be adversely related to randomized treatment (eg, discontinuation due to adverse events or lack of efficacy) are considered attributable and handled with a composite estimand strategy, while a hypothetical estimand strategy is used for intercurrent events not considered to be related to randomized treatment (eg, unrelated adverse events). We explore several options for how to implement this approach and compare them to hypothetical “efficacy” and treatment policy estimand strategies through a series of simulation studies whose design is inspired by recent trials in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and we illustrate through an analysis of a recently completed COPD trial.     

Population and Progress in the Middle Ages: A Review Essay*

Book reviewed in this Article: Julian L. Simon, The Great Breakthrough and Its Cause, edited by Timur Kuran Angela Hattery, Women, Work, and Family: Balancing and Weaving John I. Clarke, The Human Dichotomy: The Changing Numbers of Males and Females Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Renato Paniccia (Eds.), The Mortality Crisis in Transitional Economies Caleb E. Finch, James W. Vaupel, and Kevin Kinsella (Eds.), Cells and Surveys: Should Biological Measures Be Included in Social Science Research?