Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

Transformational leadership and optimal functioning at work: On the mediating role of employees' perceived job characteristics and motivation

This study aimed to deepen our understanding of the motivational mechanisms involved in the relationship between transformational leadership (TFL) and employee functioning. Drawing on the TFL literature, the job demands–resources model and self-determination theory, we propose an integrative model that relates TFL to employee psychological health (burnout and psychological distress), attitudes (occupational commitment and turnover intention) and performance (professional efficacy, self-reported individual and objective organizational performance) through two explanatory mechanisms: perceived job characteristics (job demands and resources) and employee motivation (autonomous and controlled). This research was conducted in two occupational settings (nurses and school principals), using a distinct variable operationalization for each. Results of both studies provide support for the hypothesized model, suggesting that TFL relates to optimal job functioning (psychological health, job attitudes and performance) by contributing to favourable perceptions of job characteristics (more resources and less demands) and high-quality work motivation (more autonomous motivation and less controlled motivation) in employees. Theoretical contributions and managerial implications as well as directions for future research are presented.     

On the psychological and motivational processes linking job characteristics to employee functioning: Insights from self-determination theory

The aim of this study was to provide insight into the differential relationships between job characteristics (job demands and resources) and employee functioning by examining the psychological and motivational processes involved. Drawing on self-determination theory, we tested a model in which job demands are positively related to negative manifestations of employee functioning (psychological distress and psychosomatic complaints) through psychological need frustration and low-quality work motivation (controlled motivation), whereas job resources are positively related to positive manifestations of employee functioning (work engagement and job performance) through need satisfaction and high-quality work motivation (autonomous motivation). Data were collected from 699 Canadian nurses. Structural equation modelling (SEM) results support the proposed model: psychological needs and work motivation partially mediated the relationship between job characteristics and employee functioning. Specifically, job demands negatively predicted employee functioning (high distress and psychosomatic complaints, low engagement and performance) through need frustration and controlled motivation. In contrast, while positively predicting need satisfaction and negatively predicting need frustration, job resources fostered optimal work motivation (more autonomous and less controlled motivation) and employee functioning. The implications for self-determination theory (SDT) and research on occupational health and stress are discussed.     

The interdependence between forms of mutuality and the development of theoretical interest in the classroom

The present Vygotskian community is divided by a common language, 1 argue. By closer inspection there appears to be 2 quotation communities. The reasons for this are many, but the main reason seems to be the different reception histories of Vygosky's work in Russia and in the U. S., respectively. Concurrently, on the continent there also exist 2 different quotation communities. In one community Vygotsky's work initially was introduced through his Russian disciples; in the other community through his American adherents. This article focuses on a Vygotsky‐inspired curriculum rationale that is not yet widely known abroad. It is authored by El ‘konin and Davydov. In Russian parlance this approach is called Developmental Education. By closer inspection it turns out that there is a remarkable family resemblance between this approach and the American approach known as the Schools‐for‐Thought movement. Here both approaches are juxtaposed and critically valued.     

The macroeconomics of fertility in small open economies: A test of the Becker-Barro model for The Netherlands and New Zealand

Becker and Barro (1988) formulated a theoretical model which identified a range of macroeconomic variables which can temporarily or permanently affect fertility in small open economies. This article tests the Becker-Barro model with relevant data which covers most of the 20th century for two small open economies, namely The Netherlands and New Zealand. The results show that government subsidies for having children have a strong positive effect on fertility, while the provision of public pensions has a strong negative effect. The degree of intergenerational altruism appears to have been declining. Moreover, there is only weak support for the hypothesis that real interest rates positively influence fertility. Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 1 September 1999     

Diverging Trends in Female Old‐Age Mortality: The United States and the Netherlands versus France and Japan

In the most advanced countries, child mortality and adult mortality under age 65 years have fallen so low that further improvement in life expectancy relies almost completely on the decline of mortality at older ages. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced among women, who are far ahead of men in survival rates. Thus, to project the future of life expectancy, this study focuses on trends in female life expectancy at ages 65 and older. Four countries are selected for this analysis: the United States, Netherlands, France, and Japan. It is particularly interesting to understand why American and Dutch trends in female old‐age mortality have been diverging from those in France and Japan for two decades. It is shown here that most of the divergence derives from the fact that decline in cardiovascular mortality is more and more offset by increases in other causes of death in the United States and the Netherlands, while the other two countries are more successful in reducing mortality from all causes at increasingly older ages. This latter phenomenon could represent a new stage of the health transition.     

An analytic model for strategic control of corporate development

The concept of strategic control as described by the authors [8] partitions the decision horizon of the firm into two segments. In the long term, information is not precise, goals are vague and constraints are unclear. The problem for the firm is, in spite of this ambiguity, to establish a development window at the beginning of this period that reflects long-run factors and can serve as a guide for short-term behaviour. In the short run, information is precise enough for conventional mathematical programming models to be used to guide attainment of the development window. This paper presents an analytic model that solves the long-run problem defined by the strategic control framework and generates the required development window. A numerical example is presented for illustrative purposes.