Priority Setting for the Distribution of Localized Hazard Protection

We address the problem of distributing safety-enhancing devices across a region, where each identical device provides for only local protection of the population. The devices protect nonidentical sectors of the population. The sectors of population are exposed to nonidentical intensities of hazard. A method for the screening and prioritizing of needs for the protective devices is described. An approach of risk-benefit-cost analysis under uncertainty is recommended as follows. Measures of hazard intensity and population exposure are identified. Exogenous parameters that influence assessments of risks, benefits, and costs are identified. Uncertainties of the exogenous parameters are propagated by interval analysis. Several tiers of the plausibility of need for protection are identified. The tiers are useful in setting priorities for the distribution of the safety devices. The method is demonstrated in an engineering application to roadway lighting, but has implications for disaster preparedness, anti-terrorism, transportation safety, and other arenas of public safety.     

Analytical network process for software selection in product development: A case study

Application of software for manufacturing processes is one of the resolutions many enterprises have resorted to in the 21st century. This has been a result of increased complexity of products, globalization, rapid changes in technology and so on. The idea was that application of software especially for product development would increase the competitive advantage of industry nevertheless the irony has been that most of the investment in software has not achieved the expected results. We carry out a case study to introduce a methodology, the analytical network process as a multiattribute strategic decision making approach to help in the selection of appropriate software to suit the product development process of a particular product.     

Assessing Risk‐Based Upper Limits of Melamine Migration from Food Containers

Melamine contamination of food has become a major food safety issue because of incidents of infant disease caused by exposure to this chemical. This study was aimed at establishing a safety limit in Taiwan for the degree of melamine migration from food containers. Health risk assessment was performed for three exposure groups (preschool children, individuals who dine out, and elderly residents of nursing homes). Selected values of tolerable daily intake (TDI) for melamine were used to calculate the reference migration concentration limit (RMCL) or reference specific migration limit (RSML) for melamine food containers. The only existing values of these limits for international standards today are 1.2 mg/L (0.2 mg/dm²) in China and 30 mg/L (5 mg/dm²) in the European Union. The factors used in the calculations included the specific surface area of food containers, daily food consumption rate, body weight, TDI, and the percentile of the population protected at a given migration concentration limit (MCL). The results indicate that children are indeed at higher risk of melamine exposure at toxic levels than are other groups and that the 95th percentile of MCL (specific surface area = 5) for children aged 1–6 years should be the RMCL (0.07 mg/dm²) for protecting the sensitive and general population.     

Forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles using parsimonious seasonal exponential smoothing

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series that exhibit repeating intraweek and intraday cycles. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitation is that the method allows only whole days to be treated as identical. We introduce a new exponential smoothing formulation that allows parts of different days of the week to be treated as identical. The result is a method that involves the smoothing and initialisation of fewer terms. We evaluate forecasting up to a day ahead using two empirical studies. For electricity load data, the new method compares well with a range of alternatives. The second study involves a series of arrivals at a call centre that is open for a shorter duration at the weekends than on weekdays. Among the variety of methods considered, the new method is the only one that can model in a satisfactory way in this situation, where the number of periods on each day of the week is not the same.     

American High School Students’ Perceptions of Determinants of Life Satisfaction

Life satisfaction can be assessed either globally or with regard to satisfaction with specific domains of life. The latter multidimensional approach presumes science has delineated with confidence the specific domains most relevant to evaluating whether the criteria for a good life have been met. This paper shares results of a qualitative study of the perceived determinants of life satisfaction among 30 high school students who were diverse in terms of mental health; 6–10 participants were classified as complete mental health, vulnerable, symptomatic but content, or troubled at two time points separated by a year. Thematic analyses of transcribed individual interviews suggested eight themes that capture the domains of life adolescents perceive influence their happiness. These themes are compared and contrasted to domains included in existing multi-dimensional measures of youth life satisfaction. The factors likely to be particularly salient to students with different levels of mental health are noted.