Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

Analyzing mental health evaluation: moral and ethical dimensions

Now that evaluators have been sensitized to the importance of moral and ethical issues in their work, it is time to move beyond generalities and examine the moral and ethical implications of specific evaluation models in specific settings. This paper proposes a framework that can be used to examine moral and ethical dimensions of evaluation and illustrates it by analyzing a selected model of mental health evaluation. Such a systematic identification of moral issues can improve evaluation practice both proactively, by shaping the training of evaluators, and retrospectively, by contributing to meta-evaluation.     

The Philippine Population Program: an overview

Since 1970 the Philippine population program has made considerable achievements in its effort to curb the country's high fertility rate. The program presently aims to attain a population growth rate of 2.0% in 1992 and eventually achieve replacement fertility for the country by the year 2000. To achieve these rates, the program has set into motion the so-called "high scenario" targets of greatly increasing the overall rates of use-effectiveness of program methods of contraception. The program continues to be guided by policies implemented since its start, as well as by new ones in resonse to recent developments. Though the program continues to receive funds from international donors, the Philippine government's share in the funding has steadily increased.     

Efforts to improve international migration statistics: a historical perspective

During the past decade, the international statistical community has made several efforts to develop standards for the definition, collection and publication of statistics on international migration. This article surveys the history of official initiatives to standardize international migration statistics by reviewing the recommendations of the International Statistical Institute, International Labor Organization, and the UN, and reports a recently proposed agenda for moving toward comparability among national statistical systems. Heightening awareness of the benefits of exchange and creating motivation to implement international standards requires a 3-pronged effort from the international statistical community. 1st, it is essential to continue discussion about the significance of improvement, specifically standardization, of international migration statistics. The move from theory to practice in this area requires ongoing focus by migration statisticians so that conformity to international standards itself becomes a criterion by which national statistical practices are examined and assessed. 2nd, the countries should be provided with technical documentation to support and facilitate the implementation of the recommended statistical systems. Documentation should be developed with an understanding that conformity to international standards for migration and travel statistics must be achieved within existing national statistical programs. 3rd, the call for statistical research in this area requires more efforts by the community of migration statisticians, beginning with the mobilization of bilateral and multilateral resources to undertake the preceding list of activities.     

Self reported morbidity in London and Manchester: Intra-urban and inter-urban variations

Evidence of self reported morbidity from two household surveys, carried out in London and Manchester is discussed. These data permitted intra-urban and interurban comparisons of patterns of morbidity reporting. The morbidity reported in response to two different instruments is compared: for the items used in the British General Household Survey (GHS) Health Section, and for the Nottingham Health Profile. The results from the London survey are analysed in more detail to examine the nature of self reported morbidity in the inner and outer city. The influence of interviewer effects is analysed, showing that the GHS items were more liable to interviewer effect than the NHP. The type and number of illnesses reported in response in response to the GHS also appeared to vary between the inner and outer London samples: The NHP appeared to be less affected by interviewer effects and variation in interpretation.     

Measures of influence of family planning program on fertility]

The question of how to measure the influence of family planning in fertility has been addressed by numerous international scholars. Highlighted briefly here are some of the methods endorsed by United Nations publications and recognized by scholars of various countries: 1) Standardization; 2) John Bongaarts model; 3) Trend analysis; 4) Wishik model; 5) Converse model of Dorothy Nartman; 6) Potter model; 7) Nathan Keyfitz model; 8) "Plural model"; 9) Model analysis.     

Therapy for male couples experiencing relationship problems and sexual problems

This article examines four issues that need to be explored by the therapist as possible causes of stress for a male couple: stereotypic male roles, stereotypic sexual roles, homophobia, which includes the "coming out" process, and sexual dysfunctions. These issues can cause anxiety and stress, which may in turn cause relationship problems for a male couple. The role of the therapist is clarified and suggestions for treatment are given.     

Average life expectancy of the population of the USSR

Mortality trends in the USSR from the middle of the nineteenth century to the present day are analyzed, with a focus on changes in life expectancy. The authors note that life expectancy increased up to 1964-1965, declined subsequently, and stabilized during the 1980s. Life expectancy has again started to rise since 1985. More detailed analyses of mortality differentials by sex and age and for the rural and urban populations are included. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

当代电影色彩叙事的多维审美价值探析

色彩是当代电影艺术最重要的艺术语言和表达方式之一.色彩在画面叙事和视觉美学的自我构建中,体现了当代影视和现代艺术的自我革新和体式变革,也体现了人类审美的时代追求与心理演进.新时代的审美文化在全球化和多元化的历史进程中,尤其关注色彩和色调在美术创作中的艺术构图、视界成型和哲理引导.通过研究电影色彩的叙事手法进一步探寻电影色彩的形式、时代、情感、伦理、原型的审美价值以及对审美公众的审美意义,有助于充分发挥电影色彩的价值,进一步探索电影创作的规律.