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21.
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Barnacle geese ( Branta leucopsis ) make annual migrations between breeding colonies in northern Europe and Eurasia to wintering grounds in Holland. During the migration, they sojourn for several weeks in five areas on the northern coast of Germany. Observers traverse these areas during the course of studying the flocks. Previous belief was that there was little exchange of birds among the five areas; however, some banded birds were observed in more than one area indicating that some movement takes place. In this presentation, we estimate the movement rates among the areas using open- and closed-population models. 相似文献
23.
We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials
have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable
queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the
resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic
regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status
of demographic groups. 相似文献
24.
James P. Davis 《Journal of popular culture》2005,38(6):1011-1021
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The authors review the trends in the use of computers in the delivery and support of career guidance and counseling identified at the symposium International Perspectives on Career Development. The papers presented emphasized that 20th‐century computer‐based systems continue to be used, mainly delivered via the World Wide Web. These systems are enhanced through audio, video, graphics, strategies to provide needs assessment, and support by cybercounselors or expert system design. The papers also revealed a new trend: the use of elegant Web sites to store and search immense libraries of resources needed by professionals and clients and to facilitate communication and collaboration among professionals in cyberspace. Concerns, issues, and resources related to many areas, including the readiness of clients to use computer‐based systems, were also raised; existing sources of guidelines are noted. 相似文献
27.
Philip L. H. Yu K. F. Lam S. M. Lo 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2005,168(3):583-597
Summary. Factor analysis is a powerful tool to identify the common characteristics among a set of variables that are measured on a continuous scale. In the context of factor analysis for non-continuous-type data, most applications are restricted to item response data only. We extend the factor model to accommodate ranked data. The Monte Carlo expectation–maximization algorithm is used for parameter estimation at which the E-step is implemented via the Gibbs sampler. An analysis based on both complete and incomplete ranked data (e.g. rank the top q out of k items) is considered. Estimation of the factor scores is also discussed. The method proposed is applied to analyse a set of incomplete ranked data that were obtained from a survey that was carried out in GuangZhou, a major city in mainland China, to investigate the factors affecting people's attitude towards choosing jobs. 相似文献
28.
A growing literature examines the empirical relationship between the joint reproductive preferences of marital partners and reproductive outcomes in Africa. Less explored is how spousal power in decision making may be influenced by lineage type. Using pooled data from Ghana, we investigate how lineage affects gendered reproductive decision outcomes and find some evidence that matrilineal women are more able than nonmatrilineal women to translate their reproductive preferences into action consistent with their goals. 相似文献
29.
Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alexander Morton Bärbel F. Finkenstädt 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(3):575-594
Summary. A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities. 相似文献
30.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55