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941.
W. W. Cooper Subhash C. Ray 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2008,171(2):433-448
Summary. This is a response to Stone's criticisms of the Spottiswoode report to the UK Treasury which was responding to the Treasury's request for improved methods to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of the 43 police districts in England and Wales. The Spottiswoode report recommended uses of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), which Stone critiqued en route to proposing an alternative approach. Here we note some of the most serious errors in his criticism and inaccurate portrayals of DEA and SFA. Most of our attention is devoted to DEA, and to Stone's recommended alternative approach without much attention to SFA, partly because of his abbreviated discussion of the latter. In our response we attempt to be constructive as well as critical by showing how Stone's proposed approach can be joined to DEA to expand his proposal beyond limitations in his formulations. 相似文献
942.
Inference, quantile forecasting and model comparison for an asymmetric double smooth transition heteroskedastic model is investigated.
A Bayesian framework in employed and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme is designed. A mixture prior is proposed
that alleviates the usual identifiability problem as the speed of transition parameter tends to zero, and an informative prior
for this parameter is suggested, that allows for reliable inference and a proper posterior, despite the non-integrability
of the likelihood function. A formal Bayesian posterior model comparison procedure is employed to compare the proposed model
with its two limiting cases: the double threshold GARCH and symmetric ARX GARCH models. The proposed methods are illustrated
using both simulated and international stock market return series. Some illustrations of the advantages of an adaptive sampling
scheme for these models are also provided. Finally, Bayesian forecasting methods are employed in a Value-at-Risk study of
the international return series. The results generally favour the proposed smooth transition model and highlight explosive
and smooth nonlinear behaviour in financial markets. 相似文献
943.
Hedayat et al. [1988a. Sampling plans excluding contiguous units. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 19, 159–170; 1988b. Designs in survey sampling avoiding contiguous units. In: Krishnaiah, P.R., Rao, C.R. (Eds.). Handbook of Statistics, vol. 6. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 575–583] first introduced balanced sampling designs for the exclusion of contiguous units. Sampling plans that excluded the selection of contiguous units within a given sample, while maintaining a constant second-order inclusion probability for non-contiguous units, were investigated for finite populations of N units arranged in a circular, one-dimensional ordering. There remain many open questions about the existence of such plans and their extension to plans excluding adjacent units. We present new generation techniques and new balanced sampling plans for the exclusion of adjacent units under finite, one-dimensional, circularly and linearly ordered populations. 相似文献
944.
Screening is a process of multiple-criteria decision aid (MCDA) in which a large set of alternatives is reduced to a smaller set that most likely contains the best choice. We propose screening using a distance model calibrated on the basis of the decision-maker's own judgement. Viewing MCDA as preference aggregation based on consequence data, we define consequence and preference expressions (values and weights) and describe how they are aggregated. Then we define screening and explain some of its properties. Using an appropriate definition of distance, our case-based distance method screens a set of alternatives using criterion weights and a distance threshold obtained by quadratic optimization using the decision-maker's selection of alternatives from a test set. This case-based method can elicit the decision maker's preferences more expeditiously and accurately than direct inquiry. An application in water supply planning is used to demonstrate the procedure. 相似文献
945.
946.
This paper suggests that the concept of the muse in relation to the creative process is more than a myth or cultural artifact. It is argued that the muse is a psychic recollection of our memories of the female who presided over our first experiences of consciousness as we traversed the borders of inner and outer reality—that is, the mother. The shift of consciousness required in creative activity triggers recall of this figure. Object relations theory, recent findings from infant research, and the intuitive observations of several authors are used to support this thesis. Clinical examples illustrate the application of this concept in treatment. 相似文献
947.
948.
George W. Putnam 《The Sociological quarterly》1990,31(1):59-75
An increase in scholarly attention to income differences between sex-typed occupations has generated a burgeoning literature. Typically-female occupations require preemployment education, not prolonged on-the-job training; receive less renumeration for work autonomy than male-typed occupations; and are concentrated in economically disadvantaged industrial sectors. However, these issues have received only preliminary consideration regarding noncapitalist societies and research has lacked an integrative, analytical focus. This study compares the earnings effects of education, type of work, and industrial sector between female- and male-dominated occupations in socialist Yugoslavia. As expected, average earnings are significantly higher in male than in female occupations. The results from the earnings regressions reveal a higher explained variance and larger economic returns to education among female- dominated occupations, especially in the managerial and professional strata. A decomposition of the earnings difference between sex-typed occupations suggests a variation in the source of inequality across skill strata. In the discussion, a comparison of capitalism and socialism reveals that while some aspects of the earnings attainment process may be unique to socialism, others are not. 相似文献
949.
950.
This paper provides a means of accurately simulating explosive autoregressive processes and uses this method to analyze the distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for an explosive second-order autoregressive process of a unit root. While the standard Dickey-Fuller distribution is known to apply in this case, simulations of statistics in the explosive region are beset by the magnitude of the numbers involved, which cause numerical inaccuracies. This has previously constituted a bar on supporting asymptotic results by means of simulation, and analyzing the finite sample properties of tests in the explosive region. 相似文献