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841.
Counterintuitive behavior of social systems 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Jay W. Forrester 《Theory and Decision》1971,2(2):109-140
This paper addresses several issues of broad concern in the United States: population trends; the quality of urban life; national policy for urban growth; and the unexpected, ineffective, or detrimental results often generated by government programs in these areas.The author does attempt to indicate how multiloop feed-back systems (to which our social systems belong) mislead us because our intuition and judgement have been formed to expect behavior different from that actually possessed by such systems. At times programs cause exactly the reverse of desired results.It is now possible to explain how such contrary results can happen. There are fundamental reasons why people misjudge the behavior of social systems. There are orderly processes at work that frequently lead people to wrong decisions when faced with complex and highly interacting systems. Until we come to a much better understanding of social systems, we should expect that attempts to develop corrective programs will continue to disappoint us. 相似文献
842.
ABSTRACT Despite increasing recognition of the importance of including the perspectives of children and young people in care in alternative care research, in practice this is not always a straightforward matter. This paper describes the recruitment of disruptive young people in care under the jurisdiction of the South Australian statutory authority to three studies on placement instability. Non‐response rates of 72.5% and 82% are reported. A large number of subjects were excluded because agency social workers did not cooperate with the project, and more subjects were excluded for reasons which suggest high levels of distress in this population. The dilemma of providing a voice to distressed subjects when distressed subjects are excluded from research is discussed, and the appointment of an independent representative for children in care to review research proposals and to negotiate research access to children is proposed. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT In recent decades, restorative justice has gained considerable recognition worldwide and has become a prominent option for diverting juveniles away from the traditional criminal justice system as well as delivering fair and just outcomes in the justice process. This paper provides an overview of how the criminal justice system operates for juvenile offenders in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, China). Based on a sophisticated literature review of recent Chinese academic journal articles on restorative justice for juveniles, the paper presents an analysis of the characteristics and operational procedures of current practices. Deficits and potential future developments pertaining to Chinese restorative practices for delinquents are also discussed. 相似文献
848.
Objective. The objective of this article is to explain judicial decision making at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia by analyzing the impact of individual, national, and international factors. Methods. We use regression and probit analysis of data on the verdicts and sentences handed down by the judges. Results. We find that international factors best explain judicial decision making, especially regarding sentencing. Conclusions. International tribunals and courts are becoming increasingly important and prevalent and it is critical that scholars better understand how their judges make decisions. 相似文献
849.
Robert W. Lake 《Social science quarterly》2003,84(4):1002-1017
Objective. New Jersey's state land‐use plan, designed to preserve open space by directing growth to urban centers, rests on the assumption that nature (the “environment”) and the urban constitute separate objective spheres, such that nature can be preserved as an end in itself. Through a spatial transformation that de‐populated the cities and suburbanized the countryside, however, the urban and the environmental have become overlapping discursive categories, each expressing the absence of the other, and raising serious dilemmas for environmental planning. Methods. This article uses Census data to document the extent of New Jersey's urban and racial transformation over more than half a century, and examines county and municipal reviews of the state's proposed land‐use plan to document the resulting contradictory interpretations of nature articulated in political debate over state‐plan implementation. Results. The attempt to forge a statewide consensus on environmental and open‐space preservation has been stymied by the contradictory perspectives of urban and suburban constituencies, whose responses focus on the urban rather than the environmental implications of proposed land‐use controls. State planners seeking political support for environmental protection find themselves embroiled in often vitriolic debates about urban and suburban lifestyles, with implicit racial subtexts, and about the legitimacy of state intervention perceived as supporting antithetical values. Conclusions. Contrary to the state's attempt to separate the urban and the environmental, the route to environmental protection in New Jersey may lie through urban revitalization. 相似文献
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