A time-varying measurement error model for age of onset of a psychiatric diagnosis: applied to first depressive episode diagnosed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)

A substantial degree of uncertainty exists surrounding the reconstruction of events based on memory recall. This form of measurement error affects the performance of structured interviews such as the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), an important tool to assess mental health in the community. Measurement error probably explains the discrepancy in estimates between longitudinal studies with repeated assessments (the gold-standard), yielding approximately constant rates of depression, versus cross-sectional studies which often find increasing rates closer in time to the interview. Repeated assessments of current status (or recent history) are more reliable than reconstruction of a person's psychiatric history based on a single interview. In this paper, we demonstrate a method of estimating a time-varying measurement error distribution in the age of onset of an initial depressive episode, as diagnosed by the CIDI, based on an assumption regarding age-specific incidence rates. High-dimensional non-parametric estimation is achieved by the EM-algorithm with smoothing. The method is applied to data from a Norwegian mental health survey in 2000. The measurement error distribution changes dramatically from 1980 to 2000, with increasing variance and greater bias further away in time from the interview. Some influence of the measurement error on already published results is found.     

AGE,TIME, VINTAGE,AND PRICE INDEXES: MEASURING THE DEPRECIATION PATTERN OF HOUSES

Age, time, and vintage are key determinants of house prices, yet they cannot be included together linearly or as dichotomous variables in hedonic regressions as construction time + age of house = sale time. We introduce a method where the estimates of the age, time, and vintage effects on prices are obtained in a flexible manner, without requiring us to specify a pre‐determined functional form for any of these variables. Applying our method to Dutch data, we find that the estimated depreciation pattern over the life of houses does not follow the functional forms typically specified for the age of houses in hedonic regressions. (JEL C43, E01, E31, R31)     

The Employment Experience of Refugees in the Netherlands1

This study focuses on the economically disadvantaged position of refugees. We use survey data of refugees from Somalia, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and the former Yugoslavia in the Netherlands, to analyze refugees’ odds of employment and their occupational status. In line with human capital and social capital theory, we find that host country specific education, work experience, language proficiency, and contacts with natives are positively related to the chances of employment and occupational status. The study shows that health problems, integration courses, and the time spent in refugee reception centers form important additional explanations of the economic integration of refugees.     

Bayesian variable selection with spherically symmetric priors

We propose that Bayesian variable selection for linear parametrizations with Gaussian iid likelihoods should be based on the spherical symmetry of the diagonalized parameter space. Our r-prior results in closed forms for the evidence for four examples, including the hyper-g prior and the Zellner–Siow prior, which are shown to be special cases. Scenarios of a single-variable dispersion parameter and of fixed dispersion are studied, and asymptotic forms comparable to the traditional information criteria are derived. A simulation exercise shows that model comparison based on our r-prior gives good results comparable to or better than current model comparison schemes.     

Morality and Nuclear Energy: Perceptions of Risks and Benefits,Personal Norms,and Willingness to Take Action Related to Nuclear Energy

We examined factors underlying people's willingness to take action in favor of or against nuclear energy from a moral perspective. We conducted a questionnaire study among a sample of the Dutch population (N = 123). As expected, perceptions of risks and benefits were related to personal norms (PN), that is, feelings of moral obligation toward taking action in favor of or against nuclear energy. In turn, PN predicted willingness to take action. Furthermore, PN mediated the relationships between perceptions of risk and benefits and willingness to take action. In line with our hypothesis, beliefs about the risks and benefits of nuclear energy were less powerful in explaining PN for supporters compared to PN of opponents. Also, beliefs on risks and benefits and PN explained significantly more variance in willingness to take action of opponents than of supporters. Our results suggest that a moral framework is useful to explain willingness to take action in favor of and against nuclear energy, and that people are more likely to protest in favor of or against nuclear energy when PN are strong.     

热力学教学重点难点剖析

本文针对热力学教学内容的重点和难点进行剖析,对外界分析法作简要的评论,指出随着教学体系和教学内容的改革,热力学教学的重点和难点仍集中在一些基本概念和热力学第一定律、热力学第二定律等内容上,并针对这些内容的讲解提出看法和建议.同时针对焓的物理意义、热力学第二定律的说法等一些存在不同现点的问题,通过分析论证,提出作者的观点.     

What's Playing in the Organizational Theater? Collusive Relationships in Management

This article takes as its point of departureconcepts derived from couple therapy to betterunderstand collusive relationships in organizations. Aswe examine these dysfunctional workplace relationships— these interpersonal gridlocks —four main types of collusive superior subordinateinteraction patterns are identified — thenarcissistic, the controlling, the paranoid, and thesadomasochistic — and the consequences of each such dyad in organizationsare explored. In conclusion, the paper presents a numberof recommendations on how to recognize the presence ofsuch collusive arrangements (taking leadership behavior as a point of departure) and suggestspreventive steps that can be taken.     

“人类灵魂工程师”的教育价值观反思

人们常把教师喻为人类灵魂的工程师。这种理念把教育看作一项工程 ,把学生当作可以改造和加工的“毛坯” ,把教学作为执行建筑蓝图的过程 ,则具有工业时代教育自身无法克服的缺陷 ,值得当今教育工作者反思