REAL EXCHANGE RATE,MONETARY POLICY,AND THE U.S. ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM A FAVAR MODEL

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation to the U.S. economy in a factor‐augmented vector autoregression model using monthly data of 148 variables for the post–Bretton Woods period of 1973–2017. Exchange rate shock is identified to reflect exogenous disturbances to the foreign exchange market, and movements in exchange rate that are not accounted for by changes in the U.S. monetary policy. We find that depreciation is expansionary and inflationary to the broad U.S. economy, the current account improves over time conforming to the J‐curve theory, and monetary policy is leaning against the wind. (JEL E3, E5, F31, F32, F41)     

Ecosystem services deficits in cross-boundary landscapes: spatial mismatches between green and grey systems

Urban Ecosystems - Quantitative analyses of the influence of boundary lines on ecosystem services distributions remain rare. Approaches towards integrative assessments of green and grey landscape...     

Eye-tracking methodology: exploring the processing of question formats in web surveys

In social research, the use of agree/disagree (A/D) questions is a popular method for measuring attitudes. Research has shown that A/D questions require complex cognitive processing and are susceptible to response bias. Thus, some researchers recommend the use of item-specific (IS) questions. This study examines the processing of A/D and IS questions, using eye-tracking methodology. By recording respondents’ eye movements, how respondents process survey questions can be evaluated. The results reveal that IS questions cause more and longer fixations. However, this only applies to the response categories. There are no differences regarding the question stems. Altogether, it seems that IS response categories trigger deeper cognitive processing than A/D response categories.     

The impact of the European Youth Guarantee on active labour market policies: A convergence analysis

The European Union’s (EU) Youth Guarantee aims to improve the labour market situation of young people. Rather than prescribing a uniform policy model, it acknowledges that supportive measures need to align with national, regional and local circumstances. It thus seeks to promote mutual policy learning through the open method of coordination. As an innovative measure, the EU has deployed funding programmes to support the domestic measures related to the Youth Guarantee. We therefore examined in this study whether this mix of recommendations and financial incentives has entailed a convergence of member state policies. Our analysis of policy outputs for the period 2007?2014 yields a mixed empirical picture. There is catching‐up convergence regarding policies’ sectoral coverage but increasing divergence concerning the number of adopted policy instruments. The first two years of financial incentives did not produce any effect on enhancing policy experimentation among less active member states. We offer an optimistic and a pessimistic interpretation of these findings.     

论表见代理中的两个问题

表见代理的构成要件及其效力问题,直接关系到本人、无权代理人、相对人的权利、义务和责任.过失责任的基本归责原则,在民法中居于极为重要的支配地位,将本人具有过错作为表见代理的构成要件之一,更具有合理性.民事行为的效力有四种情形,即有效、无效、可撤销和效力未定,将表见代理的效力规定为有效,在民法理论体系上有无法克服的矛盾,若视其为可撤销的民事行为,则可较好地平衡本人和相对人之间的利益,也可保持民法理论体系的前后一致性.     

革命文学群己对立英雄观辨析

朱德发从人类视野探讨了集体英雄与个体英雄相互依存的辩证关系,在精神意识深层开掘了集体英雄和个体英雄的灵魂构成,认为英雄既有个性主义意识又有集体主义思想,二者并非对立而是有机统一的。王寰鹏认为,梁晓声知青小说的英雄主义既带有浓重的历史印记又体现了人性的本能,歌颂英雄主义和反思历史是梁晓声知青小说中同时存在的价值追求。李宗刚认为,“十七年”文学英雄叙事是中国革命这一宏大历史的缩影,其中隐喻着中国革命在艰难曲折中最终走向更伟大的胜利;同时,英雄叙事还契合了主流意识形态的需求,满足了主流意识形态时“个人魅力型权力”的眷恋。李钧从英雄性格入手,比较了《犯人李铜钟的故事》与《天下荒年》这两篇小说的英雄观及其文化哲学的差异。张伟忠通过对《人间正道》和《抉择》中的改革英雄形象的艺术分析,认为他们身上既有对传统君子型英雄人格优秀品质的继承,也有对当代改革英雄品质的发扬光大。改革英雄的人格结构并不全是现代性的,其中还有权威人格和长官意志等传统人格负面因素的残留。杨新刚认为,20世纪90年代以来的英雄叙事小说具有如下特征:从“英雄的人”向“人的英雄”的转进;英雄类型的世俗化和当代性;游走在主旋律与消费主义之间的叙事策略;由反传奇性向生活化叙事抵达等。     

Forced Migration and Mortality in the Very Long Term: Did Perestroika Affect Death Rates Also in Finland?

In this article, we analyze mortality rates of Finns born in areas that were ceded to the Soviet Union after World War II and from which the entire population was evacuated. These internally displaced persons are observed during the period 1971-2004 and compared with people born in the same region but on the adjacent side of the new border. We find that in the 1970s and 1980s, the forced migrants had mortality rates that were on par with those of people in the comparison group. In the late 1980s, the mortality risk of internally displaced men increased by 20% in relation to the expected time trend. This deviation, which manifests particularly in cardiovascular mortality, coincides with perestroika and the demise of the Soviet Union, which were events that resulted in an intense debate in civil society about restitution of the ceded areas. Because state actors were reluctant to engage, the debate declined after some few years, and after the mid-1990s, the death risk again approached the long-term trend. Our findings indicate that when internally displaced persons must adjust to situations for which appropriate coping behaviors are unknown, psychosocial stress might arise several decades after their evacuation.     

军事熟语的文化特征

军事熟语是在中华民族的长期语言实践中反复加工锤炼而成的哲理性语言.它具有客观辩证的思维方式:联系发展的动态理念和把握全局的宏观视角;具有历史性:以谋为本的文化倾向,以治为胜的治军传统和追求全胜的最高境界;具有民族性:爱好和平的心理愿望和团结一心的民族气节.     

试述儒道文明一统思想

儒家思想和道家思想 ,都是关于社会文明进步与发展的思想。儒家形成了以“仁”为核心 ,以纳“仁”入“礼”的“仁礼学说”为指导的“仁一统”思想 ;道家形成了以“道”为核心 ,以“道论”为指导的“道一统”思想 ,两者关于文明进步与发展的哲学基础、前提条件、方式途径等各有所论。儒道文明一统思想对于统一、多民族、全面进步与发展的中国古代历史发挥了重大而深远的作用 ,在中华民族新的伟大复兴以至世界和平与发展中也有望发挥新的重要的积极作用     

自然人犯罪主体的理论探讨

犯罪主体在犯罪构成要件中是不可缺少的,而自然人犯罪主体是犯罪主体的重要组成部分。作者认为,我国刑法关于未成年人相对负刑事责任年龄的规定有缺陷,建议立法修正。文章还对自然人犯罪主体在共同犯罪中具有的不同类型和新的特征作了探讨。