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51.
Heidi Tavakoli Gregory Smith 《Development policy review : the journal of the Overseas Development Institute》2013,31(1):59-74
This article analyses evidence for each of the expected benefits of budget support in turn, and finds the biggest improvements in the pro‐poor nature of public expenditure and public financial management. More modest improvements are noted in the predictability of aid and the burden of transaction costs, while less is known about the real effects on domestic accountability. Underlying them all is an assessment that programmes are incapable of ‘buying’ reforms. Drawing on the analysis, seven areas are highlighted where budget support design can be strengthened vis‐à‐vis its original rationale. 相似文献
52.
Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material. 相似文献
53.
Marcel de Toledo Vieira Maria de Fátima Salgueiro Peter W. F. Smith 《Journal of applied statistics》2016,43(7):1310-1321
We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling. 相似文献
54.
Smith DL 《Work (Reading, Mass.)》2007,29(2):127-135
Among working aged adults (18-64) with disabilities, three out of 10 (32%) work full or part-time, compared to eight out of 10 (81%) of those without disabilities [9]. In addition, 24.7% of women with a severe disability and 27.8% of men with a severe disability are employed, while women with a non-severe disability have an employment rate of 68.4% and men with a non-severe disability have an employment rate of 85.1% [14]. This study examined data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey from 1995-2002 to determine whether or not disparities exist in the rate of unemployment for women with disabilities, compared to men with disabilities and women and men without disabilities. In addition, regression analysis looked at the how disability and gender predict the outcome of unemployment. Results showed that there has been essentially no change with regard to employment for any of these populations. In addition, disability and gender were found to be the strongest predictors of unemployment for women with disabilities. Possible explanations were discussed as to the reasons for the results and issues were presented for future research. 相似文献
55.
Demographic studies indicate a remarkable aging trend in North America. An accurate profile of the decline in physical and cognitive capabilities over time is essential to our understanding of the aging process. This study examined the maintenance of skilled performance across the careers of 96 professional golfers. Data were collected on scoring average, driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, putts per round, and number of competitive rounds played using online data archives. Analyses indicate that performance in this activity can be maintained to a greater extent than in activities relying on biologically constrained abilities. Although the generalizability of these results to "normal" aging populations is not known, they suggest that acquired skills can be maintained to a large extent in the face of advancing age. 相似文献
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58.
Barnett K Buys L Lovie-Kitchin J Boulton-Lewis G Smith D Heffernan M 《Journal of women & aging》2007,19(3-4):179-193
Women's fear of violence can impact negatively on their active participation in life. An ageing survey conducted with 2,620 Australian respondents aged 50 to 90 years examined aspects of work, learning, social, spiritual and emotional status, health, vision, home, life events, demographics, and asked an open-ended question about what being actively engaged in life meant. Ordinal regression was carried out on two dependent variables: wanting and needing to learn to discourage violence. Analyses found that as women's age increased, those on lower incomes were more likely than others to say they needed to learn how to discourage violence against them. This paper investigates the variables associated with the findings-transport, finances, news media, home safety, and reduced social interactions. Results highlight the importance of understanding women's fear in the context of personal and social issues, and the need to provide learning opportunities to improve safety and social engagement. 相似文献
59.
Gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered (GLBT) experiences with Earth-spirited faith 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Earth-spirited faiths (e.g., Pagan and Wiccan spiritualities) have been described as more affirmative toward gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered (GLBT) members than mainstream Judeo-Christian faiths, but no research has explored Earth-spirited faiths' GLBT-affirming behaviors. This study investigated those behaviors as well as the faith experiences of GLBT Earth-spirited individuals. At time of coming out, participants who were affiliated with mainstream Judeo-Christian faiths reported greater faith conflict than those affiliated with Earth-spirited faiths; however, there were no differences in resolution of the conflict between the two groups, internalized homonegativity, or self-acceptance. In addition, Earth-spirited faiths engaged in many GLBT-affirming behaviors. 相似文献
60.