Precision,bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models

Many researchers have used time series models to construct population forecasts and prediction intervals at the national level, but few have evaluated the accuracy of their forecasts or the out-of-sample validity of their prediction intervals. Fewer still have developed models for subnational areas. In this study, we develop and evaluate six ARIMA time series models for states in the United States. Using annual population estimates from 1900 to 2000 and a variety of launch years, base periods, and forecast horizons, we construct population forecasts for four states chosen to reflect a range of population size and growth rate characteristics. We compare these forecasts with population counts for the corresponding years and find precision, bias, and the width of prediction intervals to vary by state, launch year, model specification, base period, and forecast horizon. Furthermore, we find that prediction intervals based on some ARIMA models provide relatively accurate forecasts of the distribution of future population counts but prediction intervals based on other models do not. We conclude that there is some basis for optimism regarding the possibility that ARIMA models might be able to produce realistic prediction intervals to accompany population forecasts, but a great deal of work remains to be done before we can draw any firm conclusions.     

Marriage,partnership and sexual orientation: a study of British university academics and administrators

Using a unique data source on marital status, partnership and sexual orientation of academics and administrators at British universities, we estimate the impact of personal relationships upon earnings for men and women. While university data cover a relatively homogeneous group of workers, the two sides of the university are very different, with administrative jobs being more like the general job market in the economy. We find a large and significant married male premium, but only on the administrative side of the university. There is no female marriage premium, and no partnership return to gay men or to either heterosexual or homosexual women.

Examining Sexual Orientation Disparities in Unmet Medical Needs Among Men and Women

Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 13,810), this study examines disparities in unmet medical needs by sexual orientation identity during young adulthood. We use binary logistic regression and expand Andersen’s health care utilization framework to identify factors that shape disparities in unmet medical needs by sexual orientation. We also investigate whether the well-established gender disparity in health-seeking behaviors among heterosexual persons holds for sexual minorities. The results show that sexual minority women are more likely to report unmet medical needs than heterosexual women, but no differences are found between sexual minority and heterosexual men. Moreover, we find a reversal in the gender disparity between heterosexual and sexual minority populations: heterosexual women are less likely to report unmet medical needs than heterosexual men, whereas sexual minority women are more likely to report unmet medical needs compared to sexual minority men. Finally, this work advances Andersen’s model by articulating the importance of including social psychological factors for reducing disparities in unmet medical needs by sexual orientation for women.     

A Closed-Form Formula for an Option with Discrete and Continuous Barriers

This article presents a methodology to derive analytical formulas for a class of complicated financial derivatives with a continuously monitored barrier and a few discretely monitored ones. Numerical results based on concrete numbers for the parameters are presented and analyzed.     

‘Training,it's a load of crap!’: the story of the hairdresser and his ‘Suit’

Many managers of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more concerned about survival rather than growth. There are consistent findings that indicate managers in SMEs do not respond favourably to offers of HRD interventions and government policy now recognizes the value of informal learning and demand-led intervention. A social constructionist approach is suggested to consider engaging and working with SME managers. A framework of SME ‘worlds’ is considered before the case of one SME is examined. Using data from three different sources, the various positionings are considered. The case shows how from an apparently antagonistic view of external training, the manager was prepared to allow a coach/mentor to work with him towards his vision for expansion and growth. Conclusions are provided concerning engagement and stretch with SMEs, policy and future funding for HRD and the definition of skills development.     

Trust,Morality, and the Privatization of Water Services in Developing Countries

This article examines the business of water privatization and the ethics implied in the transformation of the water services sector in developing countries. Drawing on data derived from field visits and semi‐structured interviews held with members of government, nongovernmental organizations, and other stakeholders in one country undergoing transformation in this sector, Ghana, the article considers the ethical perspectives of the various involved stakeholders. The analysis draws on three perspectives—Gilligan's ethic of care, Rawls’ principles of justice, and virtue ethics—which together highlight the economic, class, and gender‐based dimensions of the privatization debate. Finding that endemic mistrust characterizes this debate, the article considers what is needed to re‐instill trust among stakeholders. Specific implications are provided for business leaders and government policymakers.     

Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Perishable Items by a Monopolist Facing Strategic Consumers

We introduce a dynamic pricing model for a monopolistic company selling a perishable product to a finite population of strategic consumers (customers who are aware that pricing is dynamic and may time their purchases strategically). This problem is modeled as a stochastic dynamic game in which the company's objective is to maximize total expected revenues, and each customer maximizes the expected present value of utility. We prove the existence of a unique subgame‐perfect equilibrium pricing policy, provide equilibrium optimality conditions for both customer and seller, and prove monotonicity results for special cases. We demonstrate through numerical examples that a company that ignores strategic consumer behavior may receive much lower total revenues than one that uses the strategic equilibrium pricing policy. We also show that, when the initial capacity is a decision variable, it can be used together with the appropriate pricing policy to effectively reduce the impact of strategic consumer behavior. The proposed model is computationally tractable for problems of realistic size.     

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Competence Constructs: Two‐Stage Multi‐Item Scale Development and Validation*

This paper defines and operationalizes eight ERP competence constructs. We define ERP competence as a portfolio of managerial, technical and organizational skills and expertise posited as antecedents to improved business performance occurring after an ERP system is operational and functionally stable. To improve responses to changes in markets and products, manufacturers are increasingly adopting ERP systems. However, anecdotal accounts indicate that the realization of ERP's potential benefits is rare. Because of its pervasive influence on manufacturing and business performance, the need for scientifically developed and tested multi‐item scales pertaining to ERP competence is highly relevant to manufacturing strategy research. We follow a two‐stage normative process of scale development. First, we identify a portfolio of eight generic constructs that are hypothesized to be associated with successful ERP adoption. Each construct is then operationalized as a multi‐item measurement scale by applying a manual item sorting technique iteratively to independent panels of expert judges until tentative reliability and validity is established. Second, we further refine and validate the multi‐item scales using survey data from 79 North American manufacturing users of ERP systems.