Management attitudes toward two-tier pay plans

Two-tier pay plans, under which new hires are paid on a lower pay scale than existing employees, have been used with increasing frequency in union-management contracts. The two-tier phenomenon appears to be associated with the wider concession bargaining movement that began in the early 1980s. In this study, management attitudes toward and forecasts about two-tier pay plans are explored by means of a questionnaire survey. In general, the management community is found to be optimistic about the spread and utility of two-tier pay plans in the near term. Managers in firms that actually have two-tier plans are more enthusiastic about their impacts than other managers. Over a longer term, however, the managers surveyed tend to believe that separate wage scales under two-tier plans will eventually be merged into a unified scale. The authors would like to thank Maury Pearl and Gwang-Gi Baek for research assistance on this study.     

An experiment on coordination in multi-candidate elections: The importance of polls and election histories

Do polls simply measure intended voter behavior or can they affect it and, thus, change election outcomes? Do candidate ballot positions or the results of previous elections affect voter behavior? We conduct several series of experimental, three-candidate elections and use the data to provide answers to these questions. In these elections, we pay subjects conditionally on election outcomes to create electorates with publicly known preferences. A majority (but less than two-thirds) of the voters are split in their preferences between two similar candidates, while a minority (but plurality) favor a third, dissimilar candidate. If all voters voted sincerely, the third candidate — a Condorcet loser — would win the elections. We find that pre-election polls significantly reduce the frequency with which the Condorcet loser wins. Further, the winning candidate is usually the majority candidate who is listed first on the poll and election ballots. The evidence also shows that a shared history enables majority voters to coordinate on one of their favored candidates in sequences of identical elections. With polls, majority-preferred candidates often alternate as election winners.     

Two-parameter decision models and rank-dependent expected utility

This paper extends the existing literature concerning the relationship between two parameter decision models and those based on expected utility in two main directions. The first relaxes Meyer's location and scale (or Sinn's linear class) condition and shows that a two-parameter representation of preferences over uncertain prospects and the expected utility representation yield consistent rankings of random variables when the decision maker's choice set is restricted to random variables differing by mean shifts and monotone meanpreserving spreads. The second shows that the rank-dependent expected utility model is also consistent with two-parameter ranking methods if the probability transform satisfies certain dominance conditions. The main implication of these results is that the simple two-parameter model can be used to analyze the comparative statics properties of a wide variety of economic models, including those with multiple sources of uncertainty when the random variables are comonotonic. To illustrate this point, we apply our results to the problem of optimal portfolio investment with random initial wealth. We find that it is relatively easy to obtain strong global comparative statics results even if preferences do not satisfy the independence axiom.     

Monitoring the metropolitanization process

Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950-1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950-1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.     

On the optimality of a class of minimal covering designs

It is shown that the minimal covering designs for v=6t+5 treatments in blocks of size 3 are optimal w.r.t. a large class of optimality criteria. This class of optimality criteria includes the well-known criteria of A-, D- and E-optimality. It is conjectured that these designs are also optimal w.r.t. other criteria suggested by Takeuchi (1961).     

Self-control training with maltreating parents

Seeking a method of intervention based on research about correlates of child maltreatment, the authors find that small-group, short-term training in self-control and child management skills gives parents the tools to better handle family stress and develop supportive social networks.     

Parametric discounting

A parametric approach to the problem of selection from amongst alternative investment opportunities is considered in a discounted cash flow framework. The approach employs differential cash flows, an uncertain planning horizon and a nested approach to composing cash flow parameters. This promotes consistent treatment of alternative investments, clarifies the effects of uncertainty, avoids some of the defects of internal rate of return and payback period criteria and allows direct comparison of best and next best options as primal and dual versions of the same model. Net present value, internal rate of return, annual average cost or payback period assessments may be selected post analysis. A domestic wall insulation example is used for illustrative purposes. This example is related to the hydroelectric power development decision which gave rise to the approach.