结构偏差、转化机制与中国经济增长质量

考察新中国建立以来产业结构、就业结构和需求结构变迁历史,分析经济结构中存在的偏差,我们认为,我国的产业结构有优化趋势,但农业与非农业之间的劳动生产率反差愈发严重,需求结构也呈现投资需求比重不断增加的偏差.这些结构偏差的形成,一方面与建国以来片面的工业化建设思路有关,另一方面也与经济发展阶段有关.结构偏差在短期内虽然不会对经济增长速度构成影响,但最终会影响经济增长质量的提高.纠正结构偏差,提高国民经济素质,要求转化机制,消除制度性约束,放开要素流动的限制,提高人力资本,发展科学技术,鼓励自主创新,调节收入分配.     

公共危机治理网络视阈下的政府间关系

在由多元主体共同构成的公共危机治理网络中,政府仍然是其中对资源和权力进行权威配置的核心主体.从战略高度调整公共危机治理网络中政府间关系的核心与前提则在于重构以政府为核心、各参与主体的权力-责任分配机制.实行平战结合、统分结合的权力分配体制,形成常态管理和危机预警、恢复阶段彼此间共享权力、分担风险与战时集中决策、统一指挥并存的权力分配格局.     

俄罗斯外交家罗高寿回望中国

＂我的朋友遍中国,我是怀着伤感离去的。＂3年前的蒙蒙细雨中,一个高大的身影步出挂着俄罗斯国旗的黑色奔驰车,随后登上了飞往莫斯科的飞机。他就是刚刚卸任的俄罗斯驻华大使罗高寿。     

授人以鱼不如授人以渔

以色列医学整容专家莫瑞斯·托帕兹博士在2008年汶川地震后亲赴灾区,使用先进的“负压创伤治疗技术”开展创伤治疗,令许多伤者免除了不必要的截肢、缩短了疗程、大量减少了抗生素的应用。他认为,授人以鱼不如授人以渔,中国的医生应该从西方医生所犯的错误中吸取教训。     

央视洋主播艾德文

“生活在中国如同乘坐高速火车,列车前进方向明确,乘客却不知道下一个拐弯的地方。”新西兰外国专家艾德文·马厄（Edwin Maher）荣获中国政府“友谊奖”时,这样表达了自己在中国的生活。     

霍文克：西方经济学引入中国第一人

1969年12月10日。诺贝尔经济学奖首次颁发．挪威经济学家弗里希、荷兰经济学家丁柏根因创立计量经济学、运用动态模型分析经济活动而共同获得首次设立颁发的诺贝尔经济学奖。     

Investigating the mechanism of marital mortality reduction: The transition to widowhood and quality of health care

While it is well known that the widowed suffer increased mortality risks, the mechanism of this survival disadvantage is still under investigation. In this article, we examine the quality of health care as a possible link between widowhood and mortality using a unique data set of 475,313 elderly couples who were followed up for up to nine years. We address whether the transition to widowhood affects the quality of care that individuals receive and explore the extent to which these changes mediate the elevated mortality hazard for the widowed. We analyze six established measures of quality of health care in a fixed-effect framework to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Caregiving and acute bereavement during the transition to widowhood appear to distract individuals from taking care of their own health care needs in the short run. However, being widowed does not have long-term detrimental effects on individuals’ ability to sustain contact with the formal medical system. Moreover, the short-run disruption does not mediate the widowhood effect on mortality. Nevertheless, long after spousal death, men suffer from a decline in the quality of informal care, coordination between formal and informal care, and the ability to advocate and communicate in formal medical settings. These findings illustrate women’s centrality in the household production of health and identify important points of intervention in optimizing men’s adjustment to widowhood.     

Mortality attributable to obesity among middle-aged adults in the united states

Obesity is considered a major cause of premature mortality and a potential threat to the longstanding secular decline in mortality in the United States. We measure relative and attributable risks associated with obesity among middle-aged adults using data from the Health and Retirement Study (1992–2004). Although class II/III obesity (BMI _ 35.0 kg/m2) increases mortality by 40% in females and 62% in males compared with normal BMI (BMI = 18.5-24.9), class I obesity (BMI = 30.0-34.9) and being overweight (BMI = 25.0-29.9) are not associated with excess mortality. With respect to attributable mortality, class II/III obesity (BMI _ 35.0) is responsible for approximately 4% of deaths among females and 3% of deaths among males. Obesity is often compared with cigarette smoking as a major source of avoidable mortality. Smoking-attributable mortality is much larger in this cohort: about 36% in females and 50% in males. Results are robust to confounding by preexisting diseases, multiple dimensions of socioeconomic status (SES), smoking, and other correlates. These findings challenge the viewpoint that obesity will stem the long-term secular decline in U.S. mortality.     

Comment: there may be compositional effects,but they do not work that way*

This analysis joins the debate on how declines in marriage have shifted the composition of the unmarried and married populations in the United States, and how compositional shifts have affected nonmarital birth rates. Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006) presented one model for compositional effects that Ermisch (2009) challenged with alternative statistical tests. I propose an alternative model for compositional shifts based not on theory but on observed marriage and fertility patterns. The results from this alternative model are consistent with Ermisch’s findings yet support Gray et al.’s general case that compositional effects have had an important infiuence on nonmarital birth rates.     

Forced Migration and Mortality in the Very Long Term: Did Perestroika Affect Death Rates Also in Finland?

In this article, we analyze mortality rates of Finns born in areas that were ceded to the Soviet Union after World War II and from which the entire population was evacuated. These internally displaced persons are observed during the period 1971-2004 and compared with people born in the same region but on the adjacent side of the new border. We find that in the 1970s and 1980s, the forced migrants had mortality rates that were on par with those of people in the comparison group. In the late 1980s, the mortality risk of internally displaced men increased by 20% in relation to the expected time trend. This deviation, which manifests particularly in cardiovascular mortality, coincides with perestroika and the demise of the Soviet Union, which were events that resulted in an intense debate in civil society about restitution of the ceded areas. Because state actors were reluctant to engage, the debate declined after some few years, and after the mid-1990s, the death risk again approached the long-term trend. Our findings indicate that when internally displaced persons must adjust to situations for which appropriate coping behaviors are unknown, psychosocial stress might arise several decades after their evacuation.