Forecast accuracy of australian subnational population projections

Despite the considerable resources devoted to making demographic projections in Australia over the past two decades, there have been few attempts to evaluate the performance of these projections in terms of forecast accuracy. This paper first considers the role of accuracy amongst other objectives of projection activity. Accepting accuracy as a legitimate goal, we then assess the performance of 48 sets of population projections and forecasts for states and territories of Australia prepared since 1970. Projection accuracy is assessed by reference to length of forecast horizon, population size and rate of growth. We also examine the main sources of forecast error in selected projections for each state and compare the performance of past projections with alternatives based on simple extrapolation of contemporary population trends.     

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.     

The Ecological Perspective Revisited*

Family therapy inaugurated a radical change in the way many emotional and psychiatric problems are understood. ‘Systems thinking’ dictated that the individual needed to be seen within a larger systemic context if his/her behaviour was to be understood and effective intervention carried out. The logical extension of this way of thinking is to argue that the family itself must be viewed within a wider context. This perspective has appeared a number of times in the family therapy literature, particularly in the ‘ecological’ tradition. Utilising an ecological perspective can, however, lead to a new and less clearly defined role for the therapist, and there are thus good pragmatic reasons working against its adoption.     

Gambling on an alternative revenue source: The impact of riverboat gambling on the charitable gambling component of nonprofit finances

This article examines the impact of casino gambling in and around Illinois on charitable gambling in that state. The research targets the impact of casino gambling on one of the vital revenue sources of many nonprofit organizations. Charitable gambling represents the most widespread form of legalized gambling in the United States. Net income from charitable gambling totaled an estimated $1.3 billion in 1997. Despite its apparent importance in providing an alternative revenue stream to nonprofit organizations, in a growing number of states charitable gambling operations must compete with an increasing number of private for‐profit gambling enterprises, including riverboat and land‐based casinos, Indian gambling operations, and pari‐mutuel wagering venues. As a result, there is interest in the extent to which forprofit gambling is crowding out charitable gambling—and in the process reducing funds (such as receipts from gambling operations) available to nonprofit organizations. The data analysis presented in this article suggests that spending on casino gambling in Illinois and in bordering areas of Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri may be displacing consumer expenditures on charitable gambling.     

A Framework for Use with Racially and Culturally Integrated Families: The Cultural-Racial Identity Model as Applied to Transracial Adoption

A new model for understanding and depicting the unique identity experiences of those reared in racially and/or culturally integrated families is presented. The model accounts for heterogeneity within groups defined by their racially integrated families. For the purpose of describing and presenting the model, it was applied to the unique experiences of transracial adoptees. The model allows distinctions to be made between racial identity and cultural identity. These distinctions comprise 16 proposed identities of transracial adoptees and are made up of the degrees to which they have knowledge of, awareness of, competence within, and comfort with their own racial group's culture, their parents' racial group's culture, and multiple cultures as well as the degree to which they are comfortable with their racial group membership and with those belonging to their own racial group, their parents' racial group, and multiple racial groups. A model for understanding the role of parents, extended families, and social and environmental contexts was also presented as a guide for demonstrating the factors impacting the cultural-racial identities of transracial adoptees or others from racially and/or culturally integrated families.     

Community e-gateways: locating networks and learning for social inclusion

The provision of community e-gateways (community-based facilities providing public access to computers and the Internet) has been seen as a way to address the 'digital divide', particularly for people from deprived neighbourhoods. In the UK, policy and practitioner literature has stressed that for these centres to be successful they need to have strong social connections and be able to provide opportunities for interactive learning and content creation. Through a detailed analysis of one community e-gateway, which formed part of a wider study of public access provision, this article analyses the strengths and weaknesses of this advice drawing on broader sociological literature relating to social networks, network mapping and communities of practice. It concludes that greater attention needs to be paid to the significance of weak ties, two-way boundary spanning and the resource requirements of social networks for the policy objectives to be fully achieved.     

An ecological investigation of the incidence of cancer in Welsh children for the period 1985–1994 in relation to residence near the coastline

An alarming report from an environmental pressure group raised concerns about childhood leukaemia and the Irish Sea. In response, this ecological study explores the hypotheses that childhood cancer rates are increased by living near the coast of Wales, especially in the north, and in particular near estuaries and mud-flats. Using Poisson regression to adjust for possible confounding variables, no evidence was found for a coastline proximity effect at the level of census wards (5 km). Moreover the rates were significantly lower near estuaries than for the rest of the coast, but there was a small but non-significant increase near mud-flats. Case–control modelling of postcoded cases living within the coastal wards using Stone's method also failed to detect any monotonic reduction in relative risk near the coastline.     

Social work for critical peace: a comparative approach to understanding social work and political conflict

ABSTRACT

This paper uses a case study approach to explore issues of social work policy and practice in three sites of political conflict in Europe: Northern Ireland; Bosnia and Herzegovina; and Cyprus. It begins with a review of the international literature on social work and political conflict and then discusses the strengths and limitations in engaging with comparative case study approaches. The authors explain how they view the writing of the paper as an intellectual encounter that helped establish the beginning stages of their comparative analysis. This starts with an analysis of the existing knowledge base about the three case studies that each share similar patterns of colonial histories, political and community conflict and the social work response. The second part of the paper extends this analysis to a critique of the impact of neo-liberal social and economic policies that often adversely impact upon the role of social workers in resolving conflict and building peace. The paper concludes with an appeal for social work to rediscover its rights-based role in working with victims and survivors of political conflict, what the authors describe as: ‘social work for critical peace’.     

Social-ecological science in the humane metropolis

The Humane metropolis is a rubric to summarize and promote environmental and social quality in contemporary urban mosaics. Because cities, suburbs, and exurbs, as spatially extensive and connected socio-ecological systems, exhibit many negative features, the humane metropolis identifies a strategy to combat the ills and instill more positive and sustainable features and processes in urban systems. Because the humane metropolis as a program has arisen primarily from social motivations, there is the opportunity to articulate more explicitly the role that science can play in addressing the humane metropolis program and evaluating its success. A humane metropolis can be summarized as one that 1) protects and restores ecological services in cities and suburbs, 2) promotes physical and mental health and safety of residents, 3) enhances efficiency by conserving energy, matter, water, and time, 4) facilitates equity by being inclusive, as well as socially and environmentally just, and 5) maintains a sense of community and a sense of place. We clarify the nature of science as a contributor to the social program, pointing out the social values motivating science, and the role that scientific knowledge and metaphor play in linking science with the social program of the humane metropolis. We further identify roles that socio-ecological research can play in meeting the goals of the humane metropolis. We use examples of environmental history, watershed function and restoration, and environmental justice research and action from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, Long-Term Ecological Research program. The humane metropolis as a social program benefits from scientific contributions that 1) expose hidden ecological processes in urban systems, 2) generate knowledge connecting people and institutions to the biophysical environment, 3) contribute to the civic dialog, and 4) bring scientific values to the prioritization and balancing of the goals of the humane metropolis.