Notes and Communications “A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL”: A COMMENT*

Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one- or a two-point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem.     

A NOTE ON HOLDING COSTS AND LOT-SIZE ERRORS

This note examines the sensitivity of the basic economic-order-quantity inventory model to lot-size errors when holding costs are assumed to be a strictly increasing (though not necessarily linear) function of average inventory. In particular, we show that the penalty associated with ordering either too much or too little is a function not only of the size of the error but of the shape of the holding-cost curve as well. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, even relatively small lot-size errors can be extremely costly.     

A DISCRETE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MADE-TO-ORDER COST ANALYSIS

A model is presented that yields optimal production rates for a firm producing a contracted order. The model is unique in that it considers the influence of production rate and learning on total program cost. An application to the specific characteristics of two military production programs is presented. As demonstrated by the application, models of this type may be used as decision-making tools when negotiating the cost impact of contract modifications.     

Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors and those not involving multiple priors. This paper provides an experimental investigation into the first set. Using an appropriate experimental interface we examine the fitted and predictive power of the various theories. We first estimate subject-by-subject, and then estimate and predict using a mixture model over the contending theories. The individual estimates suggest that 24% of our 149 subjects have behaviour consistent with Expected Utility, 56% with the Smooth Model, 11% with Rank Dependent Expected Utility and 9% with the Alpha Model; these figures are close to the mixing proportions obtained from the mixture estimates where the respective posterior probabilities of each of them being of the various types are 25%, 50%, 20% and 5%; and using the predictions 22%, 53%, 22% and 3%. The Smooth model appears the best.     

Modeling the Niger Delta Insurgency

Nigeria's oil guarantees its role in the global economy; however, the state's overwhelming weaknesses perpetuate a high level of volatility vis-à-vis the potential for an immediate disruption of the national, regional, and global environment. This study presents a current qualitative analysis of Nigeria to produce a model that characterizes current conditions in the state and the state response to the nefarious acts in the delta region. This model will serve as a baseline for a significant iteration of the model that reflects the delta region counter-insurgency at various levels of strength: a what-if scenario of the region with an increase of state security over southern separatists, insurgents seeking to gain control of the oil assets. The conjectured model serves to inform/educate decision and policy makers in developing proactive, effective strategies to counter existent and potential threats in the Niger Delta.     

Hunger Reduction in China: An Analysis of Contextual Factors

In recent times, China has significantly reduced hunger in its populace. The main objective of this paper was to analyze some of the contextual socioeconomic factors contributing to the reduction of hunger in China, using Qualitative Interpretative Meta‐Synthesis (QIMS). The results revealed that China has followed a broad‐based and multispectral approach to reduce hunger. Factors, such as poverty alleviation; social safety nets for disadvantaged villagers; agricultural development and land reforms; regional development and equity in development activities; infrastructural development; and political‐economic reform and sustainable growth were influential in reducing hunger in China. Poverty is attributed as one of the principal contributors and is interlinked with many other dimensions. The findings of this paper are a useful guide to the Chinese government, policy‐makers, international organizations, and development practitioners.