New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States?

The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs.     

Nationwide Newspaper Coverage of Posttraumatic Stress: A Community Structure Approach

This study utilized the community structure approach to analyze newspaper coverage of posttraumatic stress (PTS) in veterans in 26 U.S. cities. The study examined whether media placed responsibility for PTS treatment on government or society through a review of 353 articles from March 20, 2003, to March 20, 2013. Researchers coded articles for “prominence” and “direction” to produce a “Media Vector” for each paper, ranging from 0.8403 to ?0.3592. Results showed that 25 of 26 Media Vectors (96%) supported government responsibility. Pearson correlations yielded nine significant findings. Results disconfirmed buffer hypotheses linking privilege with support for government responsibility (privilege defined by percentage of college educated, percentage of family income $100,000 or more, and percentage of professional/technical occupational status; r = ?.486, ?.524, ?.553, respectively, significant at the .006 level). Stakeholder hypotheses were also disconfirmed; greater percentages of age 65 and older correlated with more emphasis on government responsibility (r = .340, p = .048), whereas greater percentages of age 25 to 44 correlated with less emphasis (r = ?.342, p = .047). The only confirmed hypothesis linked percentage of age 45 to 64 with less emphasis on government responsibility (r = ?.559, p = .002). A regional finding was noteworthy: Media in the Midwest supported government responsibility more than other regions. Regression analysis revealed three variables influencing coverage most significantly: Family Income $100K+ (26% of variance), Percentage of Hispanic (8%), and Professional/Technical Occupational status (5%). It must be noted that nearly all newspapers yielded positive Media Vectors. This indicates that coverage in major cities generally favors government responsibility for veterans' PTS treatment, and Pearson correlation results may represent differences in the degree of support and demographic characteristics influencing this support.     

Whatever Happened to Drama? A Configurational–Comparative Analysis of Genre Trajectory in American Cinema, 1946–2013

Although usually conceived of and studied as individual types, genres are frequently combined in practice. This research examines how genres are combined in popular American films, and how the popularity of particular combinations changed between 1946 and 2013. Distinguishing between “contextual genres” (which identify a film's subject matter) and “affective genres” (which identify a film's intent), we find marked differences between the postwar and blockbuster eras of the Hollywood film industry. The blockbuster era exhibits less generic diversity than the earlier postwar era. Furthermore, the popular postwar‐era films dealt with serious subjects and were set in realistic settings. The blockbuster era replaced these with intense, nonrealistic films. We also find that the relationship between contextual and affective genres changes within industry eras, with affective genres dominating at the beginning of new periods and the popularity of contextual genres growing as the period progresses.     

Think Tanks,Funding, and the Politics of Policy Knowledge in Canada

Les relations entre les centres de recherche ou groupes de réflexion et leurs bailleurs de fonds sont importantes dans les théories et les discours publics abordant la question de l'orientation politique de la recherche sur les politiques publiques. Pourtant, très peu d'études examinent systématiquement ces relations à travers un ensemble de cas. Cet article, avec des méthodes comparatives et relationnelles, teste les théories élitiste, pluraliste et de terrain, en analysant des données portant sur le financement et l'orientation politique de 30 groupes de réflexion de 2000 à 2011. Les résultats démontrent que les dons provenant de l'étranger contribuent à soutenir certains groupes de réflexions conservateurs, mais ce financement demeure tout de même marginal dans l'ensemble. Au niveau national, les groupes de réflexion sont financés de manière contrastée: les groupes conservateurs sont financés principalement par des donateurs privés, alors que les groupes de réflexion centristes sont financés principalement par l'état. Depuis 2005, les liens entre l'ensemble des groupes de réflexion conservateurs, financés par des donateurs privés, sont devenus plus serrés. En revanche, les liens entre l'ensemble des groupes de réflexion centristes se sont relâchés et leur financement dépend de plus en plus de leurs propres revenus et des intérêts de leurs investissements. Ces résultats laissent planer un certain doute sur les prédictions qui découlent des théories élitiste et pluraliste et confirment en partie les suppositions de la théorie de terrain. The relationships between think tanks and their funders are central to theory and public discourse about the politics of policy knowledge, yet very little research systematically examines these relationships across cases. This article evaluates elite, pluralist, and field theories by analyzing original data on funding and politics for 30 think tanks from 2000 to 2011 with comparative and relational methods. I find that foreign donations help support some conservative think tanks, but that it is a small amount of money relative to other funding sources. Domestically, think tank funding is structured by an opposition between donor‐funded conservatives and state‐funded centrists. Since 2005, the cluster of conservative think tanks funded by private donors has become tighter, while the cluster of think tanks supported by the state has become looser and more reliant on self‐generated revenue and interest and investments. These findings cast doubt on predictions derived from elite and pluralist theories, and offer some support for field theory.     

A UNIVERSITY EXAMINATION-SCHEDULING MODEL TO MINIMIZE MULTIPLE-EXAMINATION DAYS FOR STUDENTS

Scheduling university examinations is often done with the objective of spreading a student's required examinations over an examination week. That is the equivalent of the problem of minimizing the number of examinations a student must take on any one day. An approach to scheduling exams which relates the problem to the classical assignment problem is discussed. The model developed is a symmetry-constrained assignment model, and the solution method requires use of a branch-and-bound algorithm. Results from application of the algorithm to six semesters of actual data are presented.     

USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.     

Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors and those not involving multiple priors. This paper provides an experimental investigation into the first set. Using an appropriate experimental interface we examine the fitted and predictive power of the various theories. We first estimate subject-by-subject, and then estimate and predict using a mixture model over the contending theories. The individual estimates suggest that 24% of our 149 subjects have behaviour consistent with Expected Utility, 56% with the Smooth Model, 11% with Rank Dependent Expected Utility and 9% with the Alpha Model; these figures are close to the mixing proportions obtained from the mixture estimates where the respective posterior probabilities of each of them being of the various types are 25%, 50%, 20% and 5%; and using the predictions 22%, 53%, 22% and 3%. The Smooth model appears the best.